The rain has really affected the the two tournaments that are being played in England, but all of the tournaments are on schedule to conclude at the right time this Sunday. We have reached the Quarter Final stage in Birmingham, London and Halle, while the Semi Finals will be played at Nuremberg, the only main level tournament that is being played on the clay this week.
Yesterday, the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Andy Murray had to do some double duty on the centre court at Queens and both have made their way through to the Quarter Finals- both of those players are very effective on the grass courts, while Juan Martin Del Potro is also feeling a lot more comfortable on this surface these days compared with earlier in his career.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: Philipp Kohlschreiber has enjoyed considerable success at his home grass court tournament in the past and he has the game that is perfectly suited to this surface.
The match up in the Quarter Final looks tailor made for Kohlschreiber as he takes on Mikhail Youzhny, a player that he has beaten in 7 of their previous 8 meetings, although this is the first time they have met on a grass court.
Youzhny is another player that is capable of playing on the grass, but his opponent is a little stronger in all aspects of the game and I can understand why the German has such a good record against him. Both of these players enjoyed very good times on the grass court last season, but I can see the stronger Kohlschreiber serve being the difference in a 64 64 win for the home favourite.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Denis Kudla: Denis Kudla has been one of the surprise packages this week and may have done enough to crack the top 100 after securing a couple of surprise wins to reach this Quarter Final.
However, that is where the run could come to an end as he faces one of the best grass court players in the Men's game in the form of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and I do think the Frenchman will have enough in his locker to win this one a little more comfortably than the layers think.
We know Tsonga has got a big game that is perfectly suited to this surface, while the suggestion is that Kudla was not really expected to have been as comfortable on the grass as he has been this week. Last week, Kudla won just three games as he was dismissed by Dudi Sela in Nottingham and I think it is asking a lot for the American to keep up with Tsonga as long as the latter isn't overly tired from his two matches played on Thursday.
It won't be easy, but I think Tsonga finds a way to win this Quarter Final 64 63.
Madison Keys v Magdalena Rybarikova: Madison Keys has shown some very good form this week and I do think the young American has a lot of potential and could easily be a seeded player by the time the US Open comes around.
Keys has come through a couple of tough matches this week and was then far too good for Mona Barthel and she has the serve that could earn her enough cheap points to make her a dangerous unseeded player at Wimbledon in a couple of weeks.
Magdalena Rybarikova has also been performing well this week, but I do think Keys has a lot more upside and I think she can find an easier way to hold serve to lead her to a win in this pick 'em match. It might go to three sets, but I think Keys will find a way to book her place in the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Madison Keys @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-4, - 2.50 Units (14 Units Staked, - 17.86% Yield)
Friday, 14 June 2013
Wednesday, 12 June 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (June 12th)
It was an on-off day at Queens yesterday and the forecast today isn't reading much better, although the organisers have at least used some common sense and started proceedings on all of the courts an hour and a half earlier than usual.
Even with that in mind, they will need to be fortunate in not having too many early matches going the distance as the rain is due back this afternoon and the event will be desperate to get back on course for a Sunday completion. The rest of the week is picking up in terms of weather so they should be able to complete the tournament on time, but they may need a bit of help today to do so.
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Kenny de Schepper: Kenny de Schepper has a monster serve, but his overall game isn't one that would trouble the best players on the Tour and while Kevin Anderson isn't right at the top of the Men's game, I do think he is capable of finding a break in each set to see him through.
The big serve of de Schepper will help him through a number of service games, but if Anderson can get that ball in play, he should have a real chance of grabbing enough chances to take control.
The South African has a big serve of his own that should see him through enough service games with relative ease that will lead to a 63 76 win for the seeded player.
Feliciano Lopez v Julien Benneteau: Feliciano Lopez has a 1-4 record against Julien Benneteau, but the one sole win came on the grass courts here at Queens in 2010 and I do believe that Lopez is the more comfortable on this surface of the two players.
This one is bound to be close as both players have been in decent form coming into the tournament, but Lopez has had a bit of extra time on the grass courts and that may be enough to see him through in what could be a tight three set battle.
I just think the extra serving ability that Lopez has and the confident ability to get to the net and shorten the points should work in his favour in this one and may be the difference between the two players.
Denis Istomin v Igor Sijsling: This is another match that has been set as a pick 'em contest and I do think Denis Istomin is perhaps being under-rated to come through the match against Igor Sijsling.
Istomin is a funny player to get a read on as he can be so inconsistent, but he had plenty of success on the grass courts last season and he has the game that is certainly suited to the surface. On the other hand, Igor Sijsling hasn't been at his best on the grass so far.
Both players came through their First Round matches with straight sets victories, but I do think Istomin can continue his run here. It is a match that should be decided by two tight sets in favour of the Uzbekistan player.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units) Advised Yesterday
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.35 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 2.00 Stan James (2 Units)
Denis Istomin @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.50 Units (8 Units Staked, - 6.25% Yield)
Even with that in mind, they will need to be fortunate in not having too many early matches going the distance as the rain is due back this afternoon and the event will be desperate to get back on course for a Sunday completion. The rest of the week is picking up in terms of weather so they should be able to complete the tournament on time, but they may need a bit of help today to do so.
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Kenny de Schepper: Kenny de Schepper has a monster serve, but his overall game isn't one that would trouble the best players on the Tour and while Kevin Anderson isn't right at the top of the Men's game, I do think he is capable of finding a break in each set to see him through.
The big serve of de Schepper will help him through a number of service games, but if Anderson can get that ball in play, he should have a real chance of grabbing enough chances to take control.
The South African has a big serve of his own that should see him through enough service games with relative ease that will lead to a 63 76 win for the seeded player.
Feliciano Lopez v Julien Benneteau: Feliciano Lopez has a 1-4 record against Julien Benneteau, but the one sole win came on the grass courts here at Queens in 2010 and I do believe that Lopez is the more comfortable on this surface of the two players.
This one is bound to be close as both players have been in decent form coming into the tournament, but Lopez has had a bit of extra time on the grass courts and that may be enough to see him through in what could be a tight three set battle.
I just think the extra serving ability that Lopez has and the confident ability to get to the net and shorten the points should work in his favour in this one and may be the difference between the two players.
Denis Istomin v Igor Sijsling: This is another match that has been set as a pick 'em contest and I do think Denis Istomin is perhaps being under-rated to come through the match against Igor Sijsling.
Istomin is a funny player to get a read on as he can be so inconsistent, but he had plenty of success on the grass courts last season and he has the game that is certainly suited to the surface. On the other hand, Igor Sijsling hasn't been at his best on the grass so far.
Both players came through their First Round matches with straight sets victories, but I do think Istomin can continue his run here. It is a match that should be decided by two tight sets in favour of the Uzbekistan player.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units) Advised Yesterday
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.35 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 2.00 Stan James (2 Units)
Denis Istomin @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.50 Units (8 Units Staked, - 6.25% Yield)
Tuesday, 11 June 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (June 11th)
It was fun to see the grass courts being used again as I managed to catch some of the live tennis during my lunch break and also once I returned home in the evening. However, it is a real shame that the weather hasn't turned up so far after a cold Monday in London opened the Queens tournament.
The rain, at least, stayed away as the matches scheduled for the day all managed to get on court, although the forecast for the next few days, both in London and Halle doesn't bode well for those tournaments. It's the same situation for the WTA tournament being run in Birmingham, but so far so good for the schedules.
I do always laugh at how these tournaments in Britain are reported- anyone who knows tennis will be well aware of the fact that British Men's tennis has been in the doldrums for some time barring the odd Andy Murray or Tim Henman. So this is the time of the season when you will see more British players receive Wild Cards into events.
With that in mind, any kind of performance will be blown out of proportion and usually followed by 'Brit Watch' at Wimbledon- yesterday, it was reported that Dan Evans 'secures shock win' in his First Round win over Guido Pella.
In terms of Rankings, it was a surprise of course- but he was actually favoured by all of the layers and he was playing an opponent that had never played on a grass court before and clearly has been almost exclusively successful on the clay courts. Therefore, I think to describe his win as a 'shock' is poor reporting to be honest as most people expected he will be too good for Pella and that happened to be the case.
Personally I think a little bit of research would have told the author of that BBC article that it was a good win for Evans, but it was far from a 'shock' and should be written for the casual reader for what it is. It was a good win for someone ranked as low as Evans is, but there was no shock and he did what was expected of him.
On the other hand, James Ward was the big underdog in his match with Ivan Dodig and it was a match he should have won. He lost in three tough tie-break sets, but had chances to serve out the second and third sets and will be disappointed that he didn't complete what would have been a real surprise result.
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Lleyton Hewitt: Both of these players came through some struggles to book their place in the Second Round, but I think Grigor Dimitrov definitely has the more upside of the two and that is why I believe he will beat the former Wimbledon Champion.
There are just too many unforced errors coming from the racquet of Lleyton Hewitt these days, while his first serve percentage has to improve markedly to give him a real chance in this match.
On the other hand, Dimitrov had to break Dudi Sela's serve to stay in the match yesterday, but he reached the Semi Final here last season and I think Hewitt's game is one that he can get the better of. I wouldn't be totally surprised if this ended up going into a third set decider or if Dimitrov wins two tight sets, but I do expect the Bulgarian to cover this spread.
Nicolas Mahut - 2.5 games v Rhyne Williams: It's not everyday that I would take someone to cover the games when they are ranked as low as Nicolas Mahut is, but the grass is the one surface that certainly favours his game more than other surfaces these days.
Mahut is a former Finalist at Queens and his serve-volley game will definitely give Rhyne Williams a number of problems, especially considering this is the American's second game on grass in his short career.
Williams was beaten in the First Round of a Challenger tournament on the grass in Nottingham last week, but I expect Mahut's veteran savvy to be too much for him here too despite having the surface under his feet. I think the Frenchman will find a way to cause enough problems on the Williams serve by attacking the net and forcing the younger man to find a way to consistently pass him.
That should lead to a 64, 76 win for Mahut in this one and a chance to play Andy Murray on Centre Court for the second year in succession.
Benoit Paire - 3.5 games v Denis Kudla: Benoit Paire is certainly beginning to make his mark on the ATP Tour and I think he can back up his win from the First Round by taking out the young American Denis Kudla in the Second Round.
Paire has been pegged as someone who can definitely reach the top 20 of the World Rankings, while L'Equipe's recent prediction of the top ten in 2018 included Paire in the list. He is only 5 wins short of reaching the same number of wins as he had in the whole of last season, and already proved he can be comfortable on the grass courts by reaching the Semi Final of an event in Holland last season.
This should be an opportunity for Paire to move through to the Third Round here despite the impressive win that Kudla had yesterday. However, that win came against a predominantly clay court player and this is a test at least a couple of levels higher for Kudla who was comfortably beaten in the First Round in a Nottingham Challenger last week.
I think the Frenchman should be able to find a way to grab a break advantage in each set in this one and I am expecting Paire to move through 75 63.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.16 Units (4 Units Staked)
The rain, at least, stayed away as the matches scheduled for the day all managed to get on court, although the forecast for the next few days, both in London and Halle doesn't bode well for those tournaments. It's the same situation for the WTA tournament being run in Birmingham, but so far so good for the schedules.
I do always laugh at how these tournaments in Britain are reported- anyone who knows tennis will be well aware of the fact that British Men's tennis has been in the doldrums for some time barring the odd Andy Murray or Tim Henman. So this is the time of the season when you will see more British players receive Wild Cards into events.
With that in mind, any kind of performance will be blown out of proportion and usually followed by 'Brit Watch' at Wimbledon- yesterday, it was reported that Dan Evans 'secures shock win' in his First Round win over Guido Pella.
In terms of Rankings, it was a surprise of course- but he was actually favoured by all of the layers and he was playing an opponent that had never played on a grass court before and clearly has been almost exclusively successful on the clay courts. Therefore, I think to describe his win as a 'shock' is poor reporting to be honest as most people expected he will be too good for Pella and that happened to be the case.
Personally I think a little bit of research would have told the author of that BBC article that it was a good win for Evans, but it was far from a 'shock' and should be written for the casual reader for what it is. It was a good win for someone ranked as low as Evans is, but there was no shock and he did what was expected of him.
On the other hand, James Ward was the big underdog in his match with Ivan Dodig and it was a match he should have won. He lost in three tough tie-break sets, but had chances to serve out the second and third sets and will be disappointed that he didn't complete what would have been a real surprise result.
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Lleyton Hewitt: Both of these players came through some struggles to book their place in the Second Round, but I think Grigor Dimitrov definitely has the more upside of the two and that is why I believe he will beat the former Wimbledon Champion.
There are just too many unforced errors coming from the racquet of Lleyton Hewitt these days, while his first serve percentage has to improve markedly to give him a real chance in this match.
On the other hand, Dimitrov had to break Dudi Sela's serve to stay in the match yesterday, but he reached the Semi Final here last season and I think Hewitt's game is one that he can get the better of. I wouldn't be totally surprised if this ended up going into a third set decider or if Dimitrov wins two tight sets, but I do expect the Bulgarian to cover this spread.
Nicolas Mahut - 2.5 games v Rhyne Williams: It's not everyday that I would take someone to cover the games when they are ranked as low as Nicolas Mahut is, but the grass is the one surface that certainly favours his game more than other surfaces these days.
Mahut is a former Finalist at Queens and his serve-volley game will definitely give Rhyne Williams a number of problems, especially considering this is the American's second game on grass in his short career.
Williams was beaten in the First Round of a Challenger tournament on the grass in Nottingham last week, but I expect Mahut's veteran savvy to be too much for him here too despite having the surface under his feet. I think the Frenchman will find a way to cause enough problems on the Williams serve by attacking the net and forcing the younger man to find a way to consistently pass him.
That should lead to a 64, 76 win for Mahut in this one and a chance to play Andy Murray on Centre Court for the second year in succession.
Benoit Paire - 3.5 games v Denis Kudla: Benoit Paire is certainly beginning to make his mark on the ATP Tour and I think he can back up his win from the First Round by taking out the young American Denis Kudla in the Second Round.
Paire has been pegged as someone who can definitely reach the top 20 of the World Rankings, while L'Equipe's recent prediction of the top ten in 2018 included Paire in the list. He is only 5 wins short of reaching the same number of wins as he had in the whole of last season, and already proved he can be comfortable on the grass courts by reaching the Semi Final of an event in Holland last season.
This should be an opportunity for Paire to move through to the Third Round here despite the impressive win that Kudla had yesterday. However, that win came against a predominantly clay court player and this is a test at least a couple of levels higher for Kudla who was comfortably beaten in the First Round in a Nottingham Challenger last week.
I think the Frenchman should be able to find a way to grab a break advantage in each set in this one and I am expecting Paire to move through 75 63.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.16 Units (4 Units Staked)
Monday, 10 June 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (June 10th)
It is the start of the grass court season, except for the tournament being played in Nuremberg, and I am personally looking forward to getting down to watch a bunch of tennis over the next month or so.
After visiting Roland Garros, this is usually the time of the year when I can invest in getting down to Queens Club in West London for the pre-Wimbledon warm up tournament that takes place. This tournament may only be an ATP 250 event, but there has always been the feeling that it is a touch more important as a lot of the big names in the Men's game will arrive to hone their skills ahead of the third Grand Slam tournament of the season.
At the same time as London, the tournament in Halle attracts the likes of Roger Federer, while the WTA Tour makes a stop in Birmingham for a grass court event there.
I have made a couple of outright picks from the tournaments in London and Halle and they can be found here.
There is a lot of tennis starting on Monday, which is not usually the norm at the beginning of the week in tournaments outside of the Masters and Grand Slam level, but that is down to the fact that there are big fields in Birmingham and London more than anything else.
Lleyton Hewitt - 4.5 games v Michael Russell: Lleyton Hewitt showed some real signs of form in his opening loss in Paris last time out, but he has never been as comfortable on the clay courts as he has on the grass courts and I am expecting the veteran Australian to have more success here than he enjoyed last season.
Hewitt actually had a bad draw at both this tournament (Ivo Karlovic) and at Wimbledon (Jo-Wilfried Tsonga), but he did reach the Final of a grass court event in Newport following the third Grand Slam of the season. Hewitt also pushed Novak Djokovic to three sets at the Olympic Games on the grass and I do think this is now the surface where he can do most damage.
That is down to the fact that playing on grass doesn't come naturally to a lot of players on the Tour and he faces one of the few players that are older than him on the Tour in the form of Michael Russell in the First Round here.
Russell is a tough competitor, but he has had a tough season so far and is coming off a hamstring issue that forced him to retire mid-match against Martin Klizan in Paris. The grass courts haven't been the American's best surface, but he does have a decent serve and will pose some problems for Hewitt in this one.
He has previous against Hewitt too having taken him to five sets at the Australian Open in 2007, but I think this one will be a little more routine for the Australian and I like Hewitt to come through 75, 63.
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Dudi Sela: You would think anyone nicknamed 'Baby Fed' would be a natural on the grass courts and Grigor Dimitrov showed he could be very capable on the surface with a run to the Semi Final here at Queens last season.
He has a decent looking match up against Dudi Sela in his First Round here and I do believe the Bulgarian will be far too good for his opponent in this one. Sela doesn't have the big weapons to really hurt Dimitrov consistently and this does represent a good way to build rhythm for the new face of Men's tennis.
Sela didn't bother getting involved in the clay court season and spent a lot of that time playing Challenger tournaments on the hard courts with some contrasting results, while the Israeli has also played a grass court tournament last week in Nottingham. However, he was comfortably beaten in the Second Round there and Dimitrov is certainly a step up in class.
I think this will be a routine victory for Dimitrov and I see him winning 63 63.
MY PICKS: Lleyton Hewitt - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
After visiting Roland Garros, this is usually the time of the year when I can invest in getting down to Queens Club in West London for the pre-Wimbledon warm up tournament that takes place. This tournament may only be an ATP 250 event, but there has always been the feeling that it is a touch more important as a lot of the big names in the Men's game will arrive to hone their skills ahead of the third Grand Slam tournament of the season.
At the same time as London, the tournament in Halle attracts the likes of Roger Federer, while the WTA Tour makes a stop in Birmingham for a grass court event there.
I have made a couple of outright picks from the tournaments in London and Halle and they can be found here.
There is a lot of tennis starting on Monday, which is not usually the norm at the beginning of the week in tournaments outside of the Masters and Grand Slam level, but that is down to the fact that there are big fields in Birmingham and London more than anything else.
Lleyton Hewitt - 4.5 games v Michael Russell: Lleyton Hewitt showed some real signs of form in his opening loss in Paris last time out, but he has never been as comfortable on the clay courts as he has on the grass courts and I am expecting the veteran Australian to have more success here than he enjoyed last season.
Hewitt actually had a bad draw at both this tournament (Ivo Karlovic) and at Wimbledon (Jo-Wilfried Tsonga), but he did reach the Final of a grass court event in Newport following the third Grand Slam of the season. Hewitt also pushed Novak Djokovic to three sets at the Olympic Games on the grass and I do think this is now the surface where he can do most damage.
That is down to the fact that playing on grass doesn't come naturally to a lot of players on the Tour and he faces one of the few players that are older than him on the Tour in the form of Michael Russell in the First Round here.
Russell is a tough competitor, but he has had a tough season so far and is coming off a hamstring issue that forced him to retire mid-match against Martin Klizan in Paris. The grass courts haven't been the American's best surface, but he does have a decent serve and will pose some problems for Hewitt in this one.
He has previous against Hewitt too having taken him to five sets at the Australian Open in 2007, but I think this one will be a little more routine for the Australian and I like Hewitt to come through 75, 63.
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Dudi Sela: You would think anyone nicknamed 'Baby Fed' would be a natural on the grass courts and Grigor Dimitrov showed he could be very capable on the surface with a run to the Semi Final here at Queens last season.
He has a decent looking match up against Dudi Sela in his First Round here and I do believe the Bulgarian will be far too good for his opponent in this one. Sela doesn't have the big weapons to really hurt Dimitrov consistently and this does represent a good way to build rhythm for the new face of Men's tennis.
Sela didn't bother getting involved in the clay court season and spent a lot of that time playing Challenger tournaments on the hard courts with some contrasting results, while the Israeli has also played a grass court tournament last week in Nottingham. However, he was comfortably beaten in the Second Round there and Dimitrov is certainly a step up in class.
I think this will be a routine victory for Dimitrov and I see him winning 63 63.
MY PICKS: Lleyton Hewitt - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tennis Outright Picks 2013 (June 10-16)
Just like that, the second Grand Slam of the season is in the books as Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams both picked up the titles in the Men's and Women's tournaments. They were the two players that started as favourites to win at Roland Garros two weeks ago and barring a couple of blips, they were the two best players in Paris.
The end of the French Open signals the start of the short grass court season and two of the bigger preparation tournaments for Wimbledon, on the ATP Tour, begin on Monday. Queens and Halle have generally had the biggest players in the Men's game taking part, although both Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are two players that won't be playing either tournament this week.
Djokovic has decided against playing one of these events for the last couple of years so his absence wasn't a surprise, but Nadal pulled out of Halle on Saturday citing fatigue from his exploits at the French Open before the Final was to be played.
It is a short turnaround in the next three weeks between the second and third Grand Slam events of the season and it is also wise to keep in mind those players that struggle on the grass, while also being aware of those that seem to come alive for this month of the year.
ATP London/Queens
The Number 1 seed at the tournament in London this week is Andy Murray who makes his return to the Tour after deciding to pull out of the French Open with a lingering back issue. He has been back on the grass courts for around ten days so I do expect he will be feeling better, while the grass tends not to aggravate the injury he has to the same extent as the long, drawn out rallies on the clay certainly can.
I can understand why Murray has been set as the favourite to win this tournament considering he is a two-time former winner of the event here, while he also reached the Final at Wimbledon and won the Olympic Gold on the grass courts last season. I do believe he is one of the more effective grass court players on the Tour, but he could potentially face a very awkward first competitive match back if Nicolas Mahut gets through to face him in the Second Round.
It was Mahut who beat Murray at Queens last season and his serve-volley game is perfectly suited to these courts for the former Finalist who is best known for his epic match against John Isner at Wimbledon in 2010.
Even if Murray can get through that Second Round match, as I would expect, he could face another tough challenge in Michael Llodra in the next Round with potential matches against Lukas Rosol, Alexandr Dolgopolov and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga just to get to the Final.
I do expect Murray to get through to the Final, but there are too many question marks for me to feel comfortable at 3.00 and I will instead look at the other half of the draw.
There are some big names in the second half of the draw with the likes of Tomas Berdych, Juan Martin Del Potro, defending Champion Marin Cilic and Grigor Dimitrov, but I do think it could make the most sense to back a different former winner in the form of Sam Querrey to come through to the Final at the least.
You can definitely question the credentials of every player in the second half of the draw- Berdych has been poor on the grass last season, Del Potro is coming off a lay-off, Cilic has struggled for form, Dimitrov has a tough draw with a potential match against Lleyton Hewitt in the Second Round, and Querrey hasn't won a title since July last year.
So why have I decided to pick the American Querrey? He has a decent record here as a winner in 2010 and reaching the Semi Final last season and he has the game that makes him a big threat on these faster surfaces. Querrey has a big serve and forehand and that certainly gives him a chance against anyone on the surface, while the draw could open up for him if he can come through his first couple of matches.
I am a little concerned that he doesn't have the best head to head record against potential Semi Final opponents like Berdych and Cilic, but the 29.00 being offered on Querrey looks far too big to me considering his previous form at Queens.
Berdych and Del Potro at single figures look remarkably short, while Cilic does not have the best draw and a lot is pointing at Querrey as being the man that could take advantage in this event.
ATP Halle
There was no doubt that Roger Federer would be feeling very disappointed in the manner in which he was beaten at the French Open, but he has been bullish about his chances to win titles now that he is back on his favourite surface. Federer has yet to win a title this season and he went to Paris for the first time in 13 years without having done so and I do believe that a good tournament here is imperative for his confidence ahead of his defence at Wimbledon.
I don't think he can complain too much about the field he faces here at Halle, a tournament he has won 5 times, even if he is likely going to face the big-serving Jerzy Janowicz in the Quarter Final and then a potential match with the defending Champion Tommy Haas or Milos Raonic in the Semi Final.
Haas did indeed beat Federer in the Final last year to make it the third German Champion in the last four years, but the veteran could be a little tired from his exploits in Paris last week and also has been given a very tough draw. His first match is going to be against the winner of the Ernests Gulbis-Marcos Baghdatis match and both could cause real problems while Raonic will likely be awaiting next.
The bottom half of the draw is headed up by Richard Gasquet and I do believe the Frenchman can get to the Final from the section. His biggest threat is likely to come from Philipp Kohlschreiber, the player who won this tournament in 2011.
Both players are capable of performing on the grass courts thanks to their strong first serves and ability to get to the net and volley effectively. However, of the two players, I do think Gasquet has been given the 'kinder' draw on paper and I do think he can ride the momentum of a solid performance in Paris into this tournament.
Even though Federer is the most likely winner of the event, I don't feel comfortable including him in my staking plan this week as he does have some potentially very tough matches to get through. Instead, I will just have an interest in Richard Gasquet to at least get to the Final.
MY PICKS: Sam Querrey @ 29.00 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)
Richard Gasquet @ 5.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit E/W)
French Open Daily Picks: 20-15, + 9.18 Units (68 Units Staked, + 13.5% Yield)
French Open Outright Picks: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.36 Units (658 Units Staked, + 3.24% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
The end of the French Open signals the start of the short grass court season and two of the bigger preparation tournaments for Wimbledon, on the ATP Tour, begin on Monday. Queens and Halle have generally had the biggest players in the Men's game taking part, although both Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are two players that won't be playing either tournament this week.
Djokovic has decided against playing one of these events for the last couple of years so his absence wasn't a surprise, but Nadal pulled out of Halle on Saturday citing fatigue from his exploits at the French Open before the Final was to be played.
It is a short turnaround in the next three weeks between the second and third Grand Slam events of the season and it is also wise to keep in mind those players that struggle on the grass, while also being aware of those that seem to come alive for this month of the year.
ATP London/Queens
The Number 1 seed at the tournament in London this week is Andy Murray who makes his return to the Tour after deciding to pull out of the French Open with a lingering back issue. He has been back on the grass courts for around ten days so I do expect he will be feeling better, while the grass tends not to aggravate the injury he has to the same extent as the long, drawn out rallies on the clay certainly can.
I can understand why Murray has been set as the favourite to win this tournament considering he is a two-time former winner of the event here, while he also reached the Final at Wimbledon and won the Olympic Gold on the grass courts last season. I do believe he is one of the more effective grass court players on the Tour, but he could potentially face a very awkward first competitive match back if Nicolas Mahut gets through to face him in the Second Round.
It was Mahut who beat Murray at Queens last season and his serve-volley game is perfectly suited to these courts for the former Finalist who is best known for his epic match against John Isner at Wimbledon in 2010.
Even if Murray can get through that Second Round match, as I would expect, he could face another tough challenge in Michael Llodra in the next Round with potential matches against Lukas Rosol, Alexandr Dolgopolov and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga just to get to the Final.
I do expect Murray to get through to the Final, but there are too many question marks for me to feel comfortable at 3.00 and I will instead look at the other half of the draw.
There are some big names in the second half of the draw with the likes of Tomas Berdych, Juan Martin Del Potro, defending Champion Marin Cilic and Grigor Dimitrov, but I do think it could make the most sense to back a different former winner in the form of Sam Querrey to come through to the Final at the least.
You can definitely question the credentials of every player in the second half of the draw- Berdych has been poor on the grass last season, Del Potro is coming off a lay-off, Cilic has struggled for form, Dimitrov has a tough draw with a potential match against Lleyton Hewitt in the Second Round, and Querrey hasn't won a title since July last year.
So why have I decided to pick the American Querrey? He has a decent record here as a winner in 2010 and reaching the Semi Final last season and he has the game that makes him a big threat on these faster surfaces. Querrey has a big serve and forehand and that certainly gives him a chance against anyone on the surface, while the draw could open up for him if he can come through his first couple of matches.
I am a little concerned that he doesn't have the best head to head record against potential Semi Final opponents like Berdych and Cilic, but the 29.00 being offered on Querrey looks far too big to me considering his previous form at Queens.
Berdych and Del Potro at single figures look remarkably short, while Cilic does not have the best draw and a lot is pointing at Querrey as being the man that could take advantage in this event.
ATP Halle
There was no doubt that Roger Federer would be feeling very disappointed in the manner in which he was beaten at the French Open, but he has been bullish about his chances to win titles now that he is back on his favourite surface. Federer has yet to win a title this season and he went to Paris for the first time in 13 years without having done so and I do believe that a good tournament here is imperative for his confidence ahead of his defence at Wimbledon.
I don't think he can complain too much about the field he faces here at Halle, a tournament he has won 5 times, even if he is likely going to face the big-serving Jerzy Janowicz in the Quarter Final and then a potential match with the defending Champion Tommy Haas or Milos Raonic in the Semi Final.
Haas did indeed beat Federer in the Final last year to make it the third German Champion in the last four years, but the veteran could be a little tired from his exploits in Paris last week and also has been given a very tough draw. His first match is going to be against the winner of the Ernests Gulbis-Marcos Baghdatis match and both could cause real problems while Raonic will likely be awaiting next.
The bottom half of the draw is headed up by Richard Gasquet and I do believe the Frenchman can get to the Final from the section. His biggest threat is likely to come from Philipp Kohlschreiber, the player who won this tournament in 2011.
Both players are capable of performing on the grass courts thanks to their strong first serves and ability to get to the net and volley effectively. However, of the two players, I do think Gasquet has been given the 'kinder' draw on paper and I do think he can ride the momentum of a solid performance in Paris into this tournament.
Even though Federer is the most likely winner of the event, I don't feel comfortable including him in my staking plan this week as he does have some potentially very tough matches to get through. Instead, I will just have an interest in Richard Gasquet to at least get to the Final.
MY PICKS: Sam Querrey @ 29.00 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)
Richard Gasquet @ 5.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit E/W)
French Open Daily Picks: 20-15, + 9.18 Units (68 Units Staked, + 13.5% Yield)
French Open Outright Picks: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.36 Units (658 Units Staked, + 3.24% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Sunday, 9 June 2013
French Open Men's Final 2013- Rafael Nadal v David Ferrer (June 9th)
The Women's Champions was decided yesterday and I still can't quite believe that the score was 'only' 64 64 in favour of Serena Williams- it was by far the most one-sided match I had seen in some time that looked so close on the scoreboard.
To be perfectly honest, Williams did not return serve as effectively as she can and there were far too many unreturned serves, even off the second serve. Her break point conversion rate was poor and if I was watching that match without a scoreboard in front of me, I would have thought Serena had won 62 62.
Now we get to the final day of Roland Garros 2013 and that means it is time for the Men's Final. The weather forecast doesn't look the best and there is every chance that we may have to see the Final conclude on Monday for the second year in succession.
Both Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer have no commitments next week so it won't affect other tournaments if that is the case, but I am sure Ferrer would rather get the match going today when the conditions are set to be cooler than it has been over the last week.
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v David Ferrer: The conditions have certainly favoured Rafael Nadal over the last week of the tournament here and even though he is now competing in his eighth Roland Garros Final, I am expecting some nerves on his part. The fact of the matter is that Nadal is playing his first Grand Slam since Wimbledon last June and he is going to be a little nervous being back in this position to win one of the big prizes in the tennis calender.
It will also be interesting to see how much the Semi Final has taken out of Nadal, although his fitness has never been in question in the past. I would look at his response to his five set epic against Fernando Verdasco in the 2009 Australian Open Semi Final when he went on and beat Roger Federer in five sets in the Final.
On the other hand, David Ferrer has made the most serene progress through the draw, yet to drop a set and also spending around six hours less time on court than his compatriot, but the match up against Nadal has not suited him much, especially on the clay courts.
However, in saying that, he has at least made the matches a little more competitive the last two times they have played on the clay courts, with Ferrer picking up a set in both of those matches. The problem for Ferrer is maintaining the level required to hang with Nadal for more than a couple of sets and he also has to remove memories of his crushing defeat here in the Semi Final twelve months ago.
On that occasion, Ferrer won just 5 games as Nadal completely obliterated his game, but I am expecting this one to be a little closer. The conditions should help Ferrer today, but Nadal has looked a man on a mission in the last week.
Nadal had fortune on his side in the final set against Novak Djokovic on Friday and I think he will ride that momentum to a 64, 62, 63 win.
MY PICK: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
French Open Update: 19-15, + 6.68 Units (66 Units Staked, + 10.12% Yield)
To be perfectly honest, Williams did not return serve as effectively as she can and there were far too many unreturned serves, even off the second serve. Her break point conversion rate was poor and if I was watching that match without a scoreboard in front of me, I would have thought Serena had won 62 62.
Now we get to the final day of Roland Garros 2013 and that means it is time for the Men's Final. The weather forecast doesn't look the best and there is every chance that we may have to see the Final conclude on Monday for the second year in succession.
Both Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer have no commitments next week so it won't affect other tournaments if that is the case, but I am sure Ferrer would rather get the match going today when the conditions are set to be cooler than it has been over the last week.
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v David Ferrer: The conditions have certainly favoured Rafael Nadal over the last week of the tournament here and even though he is now competing in his eighth Roland Garros Final, I am expecting some nerves on his part. The fact of the matter is that Nadal is playing his first Grand Slam since Wimbledon last June and he is going to be a little nervous being back in this position to win one of the big prizes in the tennis calender.
It will also be interesting to see how much the Semi Final has taken out of Nadal, although his fitness has never been in question in the past. I would look at his response to his five set epic against Fernando Verdasco in the 2009 Australian Open Semi Final when he went on and beat Roger Federer in five sets in the Final.
On the other hand, David Ferrer has made the most serene progress through the draw, yet to drop a set and also spending around six hours less time on court than his compatriot, but the match up against Nadal has not suited him much, especially on the clay courts.
However, in saying that, he has at least made the matches a little more competitive the last two times they have played on the clay courts, with Ferrer picking up a set in both of those matches. The problem for Ferrer is maintaining the level required to hang with Nadal for more than a couple of sets and he also has to remove memories of his crushing defeat here in the Semi Final twelve months ago.
On that occasion, Ferrer won just 5 games as Nadal completely obliterated his game, but I am expecting this one to be a little closer. The conditions should help Ferrer today, but Nadal has looked a man on a mission in the last week.
Nadal had fortune on his side in the final set against Novak Djokovic on Friday and I think he will ride that momentum to a 64, 62, 63 win.
MY PICK: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
French Open Update: 19-15, + 6.68 Units (66 Units Staked, + 10.12% Yield)
Saturday, 8 June 2013
French Open Women's Final 2013- Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova (June 8th)
The second Saturday of the French Open is the day reserved for the Women's Final and I do wonder if the fans will have been able to recover from the emotional rollercoaster they were taken on during the Men's Semi Finals on Friday night.
The first of those Semi Finals was between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal- it wasn't the best Semi Final for the first three sets, with Djokovic's form particularly fluctuating too much to make it a real contest and an early break for Nadal in the fourth looked to have ended the match.
However, from that moment on, the match took a number of turns as momentum shifted both ways and it was a couple of moments that eventually cost Djokovic the match. The first was his constant frustration with the dried out court not being watered and the second was the moment he ran into the net when the point was almost certainly won at 4-3, 40-40 in the final set... The World Number 1 himself admitted that the match was decided at that moment and I would go a step further and say it was that moment that prevented him holding serve and putting himself just a game away from winning the match, something which I believe he would have done.
One question Djokovic has to have is what happened to him in set three- he almost broke Nadal in the first game, but then proceeded to lose the set 6-1 as he struggled with his form and it did seem that Djokovic had some sort of physical problem. While he hasn't discussed that moment yet, it is something to keep in mind with the third Grand Slam of the year just three weeks away.
The crowd were a little flat for the second Semi Final on Friday, even with home hope Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in action and that did lead to a limp performance from the charismatic Frenchman. Playing David Ferrer was always going to be a much bigger challenge than most in the media made out, especially as Ferrer is very comfortable on the clay courts and Tsonga is certainly better on other surfaces.
Ferrer dominated the match for the most part and didn't make the errors that Roger Federer made in the Quarter Final against Tsonga and it was a very straightforward straight sets win.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Maria Sharapova: If you listened to some of the commentary during the last couple of weeks on both ITV and Eurosport, you would be forgiven for thinking that Maria Sharapova is the dominate player on the WTA Tour in this generation.
However, if you follow tennis for more than just the Grand Slam events, you would be very aware that the Alpha Female is Serena Williams, a player that is very likely to go down as one of the true legends of the Tour.
Serena has dominated Sharapova ever since losing back to back matches against her back in 2004 at Wimbledon and Los Angeles and even the Russian is the first to admit that she has to do something different to change the outcome in this one. Their recent matches have been fairly comfortable wins for Williams when it is all said and done and Sharapova has won just 1 of the last 18 sets they have competed against one another.
It says a lot that she has got to 6-4 or better in 5 of the last 18 sets as Williams has totally outplayed her- Williams hits the ball better than Sharapova, has more power and has the more consistent serve and all of this points to a win for the American, her second in Roland Garros. Sharapova isn't likely to get forward and attack the net and I can't see what she is capable of doing different to change the outcome of this match.
The problem for Sharapova is that she won't feel comfortable doing what she needs to change this match and I think Serena has had her one slip in this tournament that she seems to have in Grand Slams when coming through against Svetlana Kuznetsova. While I think the Russian will have some success at times in this one, it is hard to see how she can do enough consistently to hurt Serena and I like Williams to come through fairly comfortably.
6 of the last 7 matches between these players has seen Serena Williams win very easily and she can add to that with a 62 64 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
French Open Update: 19-14, + 8.68 Units (64 Units Staked, + 13.56% Yield)
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