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Saturday 18 June 2011

Wimbledon Ladies Tournament Outright Picks and Preview

The Women's tour has really suffered this year in terms of quality, but it does mean that the prices for their tournaments are generally larger than for the Men's. The return of the Williams sisters after several months off is the story as we head into Wimbledon but there are other issues that will be determined in the next fortnight.

Will Maria Sharapova continue her resurgence and recapture the Wimbledon crown?

Will Caroline Wozniacki show why she is the World Number 1?

Will the likes of Petra Kvitova, Julia Goerges and Victoria Azarenka win a Grand Slam for the 'new generation'?

Will any British Women make the 2nd Round of the tournament?


First Quarter
Caroline Wozniacki sits on top of the draw as the World Number 1, but she has been written off in a number of places as a winner of Wimbledon. It is interesting to note she decided to play in an indoor hard court tournament rather than taking any time on the grass and we will see if that was the correct decision soon.

Wozniacki should be able to get through the first 3 Rounds here in the tournament but that is where her tournament could draw to a close as she is likely to face Dominika Cibulkova or the dangerous Julia Goerges. Cibulkova is less likely to provide the problems that will lead to victory, but Goerges can hit through the ball and that will be a problem for Qozniacki who relies more on her defence to win matches.

Even if Wozniacki is still around by the time the Quarter Finals come around, it is then she will potentially see her biggest hurdle in the form of Maria Sharapova. The Russian may have a couple of problems before she reaches the Quarter Finals, most notably in the forms of Lucie Safarova and Sam Stosur.

Safarova is a big hitting left hander that can play at an exceptionally high level when she is on her game and could be a danger in the 3rd Round. Safarova has won the only previous meeting with Sharapova, but doesnt have the same grass court pedigree and I would expect the latter to get through.

Sam Stosur could cause problems with her solid serve for Sharapova, but the Russian has won all 8 previous meetings with her before and I would expect Sharapova to get the job done again.

Sharapova, I would expect, would be too strong for any of her potential Quarter Final opponents and I think she will be one of the Semi Finalists.


Second Quarter
This section is highlighted by Serena Williams, but she has not been given the kindest of draws if I am honest. A potential 2nd Round meeting with Bojana Jovanovski is not as straight forward as it may look, especially considering the lack of court time Serena has had.

Furthermore, a 4th Round match with Marion Bartoli, the winner in Eastbourne, is not to be overlooked. Serena may have won both meetings with the Frenchwoman, but Bartoli has plenty of hitting power and could definitely cause one or two problems for the American.

To make the path a little more complicated, Serena will eventually have to face either Na Li, the French Open Winner and Australian Open Runner Up, Agnieska Radwanska, a former Junior Champion at Wimbledon, Ana Ivanovic, a former World Number 1, or one of the most dangerous unseeded players in Sabine Lisicki, a recent winner on grass in Birmingham.

Na Li is scheduled to meet Sabine Lisicki in the 2nd Round and that could be one of the matches of the day. Lisicki has won their only previous meeting and has shown some solid grass court pedigree as a former Quarter Finalist here at Wimbledon.

Ana Ivanovic has not had the best of times when playing on grass, and I think the 4th Round meeting from this section could be Agnieska Radwanska and Sabine Lisicki.

I feel Lisicki would provide more of a problem for Serena Williams in the Quarter Final with her hitting ability whereas Radwanska is more of a defensive minded player that looks to frustrate opponents into mistakes.

Serena Williams may just get through to the Semi Final meeting with Maria Sharapova, but this is going to be tough for her throughout.


Third Quarter
Victoria Azarenka may be the highest rated seed in this section of the draw, but she could not have been over the moon to see a possible 3rd Round clash with Daniela Hantuchova on the horizon. Both players should get through their first 2 Rounds to set up a mouth watering clash.

Daniela Hantuchova (I have a definite soft spot for her) is one of the form players on the WTA Tour, reaching the Final in Birmingham and the Semi Finals in Eastbourne coming into this tournament. She beat Caroline Wozniacki in the French Open and a recent win over Venus Williams shows she is mentally in a good place.

With a 2-0 head to head record against Azarenka, and arguably the better grass court pedigree, I feel a surprise here.

If Hantuchova can win that match, it will really open the door to a Quarter Final spot.

There her opponent is likely to come from Francesca Schiavone, Andrea Petkovic or the dangerous Ekaterina Makarova. Schiavone has not really had the best time on grass in recent years and I am sure Makarova will feel she can reverse the loss in their only other meeting.

Makarova won at Eastbourne last year before losing to Venus Williams and definitely can play on the grass. Andrea Petkovic should be her 4th Round opponent, but she too has not had the best record on grass courts and Makarova could reverse her only loss to the German too.

The winner of this Quarter is very much likely to come from the Daniela Hantuchova-Victoria Azarenka 3rd Round match. I think the Slovakian is in brilliant form and could achieve her best result at Grand Slam level this year.


Fourth Quarter
The final quarter of the draw really has some special players in the mix with Petra Kvitova, Vera Zvonareva and Venus Williams all likely to have realistic ambitions of winning the title.

Vera Zvonareva should get through the first 2 Rounds with little problems but then faces a tough looking match against Tsvetana Pironkova. Pironkova will present problems after reaching the Semi Finals here last year (losing to Zvonareva) and also pushing Serena to 3 sets in Eastbourne last week.

However, the Russian may prove a little too strong in the end and should move on to a 4th Round match with Venus Williams.

Venus Williams will first have to beat Jelena Jankovic in the 3rd Round, a tough match for the elder Williams who has lost to Jankovic on the grass at Wimbledon before. They have a 6-6 head to head record and Jankovic actually won their last meeting in Rome last year while losing just 1 game.

Regardless who gets through that tie, I would favour Zvonareva to get through to the Quarter Finals.

Petra Kvitova should move through to the 4th Round as she has been given a kind draw. Her biggest threat comes from Roberta Vinci, a winner of the Unicef Open in Holland last week, but I feel Kvitova's power will overwhelm the Italian.

In the 4th Round, Kvitova is likely to face the winner of the Yanina Wickmayer-Svetlanta Kuznetsova match. The Russian has won both meetings with Wickmayer in the past, but both have the same kind of level on grass courts.

At this stage, I would favour Kvitova, the Wimbledon Semi Finalist of last year, to come through and play Zvonareva.

This Quarter Final should be an excellent one to watch. Both Kvitova and Zvonareva have 2 wins apiece against one another, but I think the Russian will be the stronger player and get through in 3 tough sets.


Semi Finals and Beyond
The first Semi Final between Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams could determine the winner of the tournament. Both have beaten the other 1 time on grass, although Serena has won 5 in a row on all surfaces.

Serena also beat Sharapova in the 4th Round in a very good match last year, but the fortunes of the two players are reversed this time. Sharapova is the player in form while Serena is the one on the road to recovery.

This could be another intense battle between the two, but if Sharapova can keep her serve in check, I think she will once again be playing in the Wimbledon Final.


The second Semi Final will be seen by the two participants as perhaps their last real chance to win the big prize. Zvonareva has won 4 of the 6 meetings with Hantuchova, but the last 3 have been tight affairs with Daniela winning 2 of those.

Hantuchova is in the form of her career, but it is hard to take her as a serious contender to win the title considering she can get the touch of the nerves. However, Hantuchova may just have been given the final confidence boost to do well after beating Venus Williams in Eastbourne during the course of the week.

Zvonareva has the mental boost of making it to the Final here last year and that may be what tips this Semi Final in her favour.


The Final, as I said, was likely to be decided in the first Semi Final and I believe that will be the case here. Sharapova has the better grass court game, and also enjoys a strong head to head over Zvonareva.

There will be nerves, but reaching the Semi Final at Roland Garros would have helped Sharapova no end, and I think she will win her 2nd Wimbledon title this year.


MY PICKS: Maria Sharapova win @ 5.5 Various (2 Units)
Vera Zvonareva win @ 21.0 BetFred (1 Unit E/W)
Daniela Hantuchova win @ 51.0 Victor Chandler (0.5 Units E/W)

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