Tennis Picks August 11th

It has been an extremely difficult week so far both for us making the picks and for the players as Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal have both 'one and done' in Canada.

The manner of Nadal's loss brought back memories of Roger Federer's defeat on the same court to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 2 years ago as the Spaniard blew winning positions time after time.

Nadal won the first set with minimal fuss and then moved into a 3-1 lead in the second set as a routine victory looked on the cards. However, Ivan Dodig clearly had other plans and fought back to take the set on the tie break.

Order looked to be restored with Nadal taking a 3-0 lead in the decider but that was quickly wiped out. Again it looked all over as Nadal broke to lead 5-3 and served for the match but Dodig was inspired and managed to once again fight back and took the match with a stunning backhand on his first match point.

It's another busy day in Canada today but the forecast does not look pretty so it will be some feat to get all the matches through.

Still, here are my picks for the day:

Sam Stosur vs Na Li: Thanks to Shuai Peng's withdrawal, this is the first match Na Li will play since Wimbledon and it cannot get much tougher against the big serving Sam Stosur, a player that also holds a 3-0 head to head record against Li.

Stosur has not been in great form in recent weeks, but she is used to the conditions in Toronto thanks to her 2 wins to reach this stage. Her game is suited to the hard courts and she will feel confident having won all 6 sets contested with Li.

Li is just 2-2 since winning the French Open and she seems to have a problem adapting to her new found fame. I am not sure if she will be mentally ready for this tough test and she has lost her last 5 matches on hard courts. She was also beaten at this stage in Canada last year and that was with a number of matches behind her since Wimbledon.


Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games vs Andrea Petkovic: I was interested to see how Kvitova was going to play following her successful Wimbledon, but the young Czech star was very solid in coming through her opening match here in Canada.

A concern is she did struggle in North America earlier this season with quick exits at Indian Wells and Miami and she also lost early during this part of the season last year. However, I think she is mentally so much stronger now and has complete belief in her own game.

Petkovic has really made the best out of her talent, but she remains a step below the elite in the Women's game and she has regularly come up short when playing the best this season. I fear this will be yet another one of those occasions as her serve and groundstrokes just cannot compete with the other more consistent players.

The German is 2-3 in her head to head meetings with Kvitova, and was beaten heavily in their one and only meeting this season after winning the previous 2 contests.


Ana Ivanovic - 4.5 games vs Roberta Vinci: Ana Ivanovic is striving to regain her position at the top of the Women's game and she has been playing a little better in recent months, although still having the lack of confidence to throw in some terrible losses.

She reached the Semi Final in San Diego last week before finding Vera Zvonareva too good, but there have been signs in the last 2 weeks that she is moving into some good form.

Roberta Vinci is a surprise opponent for Ivanovic after beating Yanina Wickmayer and Caroline Wozniacki as the underdog in the last 2 Rounds, but I cannot remove the Jie Zheng defeat in San Diego from my mind.

This is the Italian's best run on a North American hard court, and she also holds a win over Ivanovic from earlier this season. That snapped a 4 match losing run to her opponent, but I think Ivanovic is playing too good for her at the moment and I see a 6-4, 6-2 win for the former World Number 1.


Double; Tomas Berdych vs Ivo Karlovic and Janko Tipsarevic vs Ivan Dodig: I think Tomas Berdych will be too strong for Ivo Karlovic who is coming to the end of a career that was far more productive than I think even Karlovic would have expected.

The win over Alexandr Dolgopolov for Berdych in the last Round would have boosted his confidence and I think he will be too strong for the big Croatian here.

I am also backing Janko Tipsarevic in a big Serb-Croat clash today. Ivan Dodig played the best match of his career yesterday against Rafael Nadal and I feel this may be a case of 'after the Lord Mayor's show' for the Croatian. Tipsarevic is a tough opponent and has already beaten Dodig in straight sets earlier this year.


Stanislas Wawrinka - 2.5 games vs Kevin Anderson: This is another match where I am taking on a player that had a big win in the last Round- Kevin Anderson beat Andy Murray but had been not been in that great shape in his win over Pablo Andujar and I think he may be caught out by Stanislas Wawrinka here.

Wawrinka looked good in his win over David Nalbandian in the 1st Round and made short work of Michael Russell- the Swiss Number 2 will also see this as a chance to make a real impact in a Masters tournament with the exits of Murray and Rafael Nadal from the bottom half of the section.

Anderson served big in his win over Murray, but the serve was not so effective against Andujar and Wawrinka has faced him before, winning in straight sets in Miami last year.

I am a little concerned with the lack of form Wawrinka has shown in recent weeks, but I think he will be too good today.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: This is a rematch from 2 years ago when these two players were involved in a memorable match that Tsonga won after being 5-1 down in the final set.

More importantly, it is a rematch of this years Wimbledon Quarter Final that saw Tsonga fight back from a 2-0 deficit to knock out Federer and you can be sure the Swiss former World Number 1 is out for revenge.

Tsonga played absolutely brilliantly when he beat Federer at Wimbledon, a performance to match his destruction of Rafael Nadal in the 2008 Australian Open Semi Final. The problem remains the Frenchman's lack of consistency to put together those performances more regularly and I cannot see him beating Federer again.

It wasn't the best performance from Federer yesterday when beating a Canadian Wild Card, but he did enough and was serving well. That will be the key tonight and he will also need to return better than he did.

The last time Tsonga beat Federer, he was crushed fairly easily in their 3 subsequent meetings, and I am not comfortable backing a player that needs to catch lightning in a bottle to win... I think Federer wins 6-3, 6-4


MY PICKS: Sam Stosur @ 1.80 BetFred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Double; Tomas Berdych and Janko Tipsarevic @ 2.36 BetFred (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 2.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: - 2.73 Units