Tennis Picks March 12th (Indian Wells)

I didn't get time to write my tennis picks from yesterday as I didn't really fancy anything in particular and I was still recovering from the surprise that Andy Murray was beaten in his first match here for the second season in a row.

It is a shame for the British Number 1 that he couldn't get a run going here as he would have closed in on the top 3 players in the Men's Rankings, but the bigger issue will be how he recovers in Miami in a couple of weeks time. After all the positives surrounding his early start under Ivan Lendl, Murray cannot really afford to have a letdown period as he did last season, so the Miami event takes a bigger role than it perhaps would have with a run here at Indian Wells.

The other factor to look out for is a virus that has been spreading through the players taking part. Roger Federer has been a bit under the weather, while his family are apparently feeling even worse, so be careful to keep an eye out for how players are feeling ahead of matches.

Lucie Safarova v Francesca Schiavone: This has been set as a pick 'em match, but I like the chances of the talented, if inconsistent, Lucie Safarova to continue her run of decent form recently.

Safarova is well suited to playing on the hard courts as she has a big all round game, although she can go off the boil and make plenty of errors. That is what Francesca Schiavone will look to extract from her game, but the veteran Italian is not the player of old and seems to save her best performances for the clay courts.

Conditions at Indian Wells are slower than a lot of the hard courts, but there is still enough in the court to give Safarova a chance to get through, although it may take three sets to do so.

The Czech player has a 3-3 record with Schiavone, but it is telling that all 3 defeats have been on a clay court, while Safarova is 3-0 on other surfaces... I will be looking for her to make that 4-0 tonight.

Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games v Ksenia Pervak: I don't like backing Ana Ivanovic much as she is not as good a player as the layers would have you believe and I find her normally far too short to be interested in.

However, she continues to play well against the weaker players on the Tour for the most part and I think Ksenia Pervak still enters that category.

Pervak has picked up form in recent weeks, but usually comes up short when up against the better players on the Tour, being comfortably beaten by Yanina Wickmayer and Na Li this season, and I just think she is still getting her game together as a 20 year old.

Ivanovic won their only previous meeting last year at the US Open, covering this spread in the process, and I will look for her to do so again.

Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Andy Roddick: The more and more I see of Andy Roddick this season, the more and more I am convinced that he is going to call it a day on his career after the US Open in September.

He doesn't have the explosiveness in his game that he had a few years ago, and I think he has lost a yard of pace around the court so getting to the net is getting tougher. I also think he struggles to hold on to his own serve as easily as he could and all this points to a player that is coming to the end of the road.

Facing Tomas Berdych is as tough as it comes at the moment as the Czech player has opened the 2012 season in very good form.

The one concern is that Roddick has a very strong record against Berdych, winning 7 of their 10 meetings, including 5 of their last 6.

However, outside of an exhibition earlier this season, the last meeting came back in 2010 and I think both men have bypassed each other at this stage of their careers.

I expect Berdych will be able to put a lot of pressure on Roddick with his own service games and I favour the younger man to find a way to break in each set and go through to the next Round here.

Nicolas Almagro - 3 games v Santiago Giraldo: I like the Spaniard in this contest as he brings his 3-0 head to head record against Santiago Giraldo into the contest.

Nicolas Almagro has played a lot of tennis over the last month, but he had a good period of form on the clay courts and he has the game that should transfer over to the hard courts.

Santiago Giraldo is a decent player, but he doesn't have the consistency that will bring regular wins over the top 20 players in the Rankings and I think that is what will cost him here. He will cause Almagro some problems, but I think the Spaniard will find a way to earn a break in each set and that should be enough to earn the cover.


MY PICKS: Lucie Safarova @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 3 games @ 2.00 Panbet (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 3-3, - 0.40 Units (12 Units Staked)