Tennis Picks March 2nd

I was asked by a twitter follower why I don't really back the big 4 from Men's tennis in the handicap markets- I do pick them, but rarely in all honesty as the handicaps are usually skewed in favour of their opponents.

This week we have had Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic all playing in Dubai but they have gone a combined 3-6 in their matches on the handicap market. Now I didn't have much faith in backing the likes of Stebe, Stakhovsky, Berrer or Chiudinelli in their matches against these players, while you also need a bit of luck to cover the big handicaps they have been set.

Roger Federer was a great example today against Mikhail Youzhny- the Swiss player was considered a 5.5 game favourite and had chances to win both sets with a couple of breaks but couldn't quite convert. He had two break point chances at 5-2 in the first set and also had at least another three chances at 4-2 in the second set, where a break in either of those games would have seen him cover... Instead, Youzhny just held on and lost in a comfortable straight sets, but covered the spread by half a game.

The picks from yesterday all went very well, with all three winning and that has moved me back into a decent position for the week. I was in a similar spot this time last week, so I want to be careful and try to avoid giving back the profit I have made.

Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: Now I know everything I said above, but I like Roger Federer in this match up against the Argentine who is still not at the level of 2009 when he was pushing Federer all the way in their matches.

In the last six months, Federer has met Del Potro three times and won on all three occasions as well as winning all 7 sets they have competed against one another.

None of these sets have gone to a tie-break and I think Federer has enough in his return game to find a way to break Del Potro in each set and that should be enough for him to cover this spread.

I still feel Del Potro has a mental hurdle to overcome against the top 4 players, and he has played a lot of tennis lately. It could be tough for the Argentine to get back up if Federer lands a couple of heavy shots early in the contest, with the match possibly having a similar feel to when they met in the Final in Rotterdam.

Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Marinko Matosevic: I really liked what I heard from Ernests Gulbis following his three set win over Steve Darcis in the last Round as it seems like things have finally clicked for him mentally in relation to what he wants from his tennis career.

Gulbis admitted he has only a couple years left to really begin making an impact on the Tour else it will be too late for him and he also feels it is illness and injuries that have prevented him doing so in the last seven months.

The Latvian has been playing well so far in the tournament and he clearly enjoys playing on what looks like a quick court at an event he has won in the past, while it is his most impressive performance since winning in Los Angeles last Summer.

Marinko Matosevic will not be an easy player to play as he should be full of confidence after coming through Qualifying here following winning a Challenger event back in Australia before that. However, I expect him to come under pressure from the Gulbis service games and I think the talented Latvian is going to come through in straight sets here, hopefully with a break in each set.

Fernando Verdasco v Stanislas Wawrinka: Did anyone else watch Fernando Verdasco's win over Nicolas Almagro yesterday? The Spaniard played some of his finest tennis for almost two sets before nerves got the better of him as he served for the match, even missing a match point. However, I was impressed with his fight in the tie-break to come from 2-5 down and win 5 points in a row to take the match.

There are still some doubts about his overall form, but I think Verdasco is having a big week and I want to stay with him having backed him in the last two Rounds.

His opponent, Stanislas Wawrinka, is no mug on the clay courts, but I think the Spaniard is playing at a decent level right now and could take this match. Wawrinka is capable of pressing the Verdasco serve, but is also liable to throwing in a bad service game per set and that could allow Verdasco to move through to his first Final since Estoril last year in April.

Kevin Anderson v Andy Roddick: This is a risky proposition, but I am taking the underdog as I want to fade Andy Roddick in this one.

Roddick admitted he is feeling a little better about his game, but he is still a little loose on his own service games and that is not the way you want to be against an opponent that is capable of holding serve for fun if on point.

I think this week has been about building a bit of confidence up for Roddick, something he has achieved, as well as bringing his physical well-being up a level before the big events at Indian Wells and Miami in the next month.

I don't think Roddick WANTS to lose, but I can see him falling away if Anderson can get his nose in front by winning the first set.

Anderson had a decent win over Xavier Malisse last night, but did have a hard time in a couple of service games. However, I don't think Roddick returns serve as well as Malisse does when he is up against the biggest servers on Tour, and I think the pressure could tell on the American.

Anderson also won the last meeting between the two having lost the previous two matches, and I am going to back him to level the head to head here.

Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 games v Dudi Sela: I think Philipp Kohlschreiber is playing like he really feels he can win this tournament at Delray Beach and I am going to back him to prove a point by dispatching Dudi Sela in relative comfort.

Sela has had a decent week so far, but Kohlschreiber represents a step up in level and the Israeli player had not been in great form before this week.

Sela also has a hit and miss serve that can really let him down and I would not be overly surprised if he was to drop serve a couple of times in one of the two sets.

Kohlschreiber has won their only previous meeting for the loss of just two games and while I don't think it will be that easy, I think the German has been playing well enough to suggest he gets through with a break in each set.


MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson @ 2.30 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 6-3, + 6.06 Units (18 Units Staked)