French Open Day 3 Picks (May 29th)

It was a much better day yesterday for the picks as they went 2-2, although that still meant they produced a small profit, while Tommy Haas is up 2-1 in sets and 4-2 in the third set and that could be the key difference between getting back into the black for the tournament so far.

Before I get on to the picks for the new day, I have a quick question: What links the following players together? The players are Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Tomas Berdych, David Nalbandian, Victoria Azarenka, Venus Williams, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Fernando Verdasco?


Some of you clever sorts out there would have picked up on the fact that all were short favourites with big handicaps and all failed to cover those handicaps. It is something to keep in mind when making your own picks as the top players seem to be over-rated at the moment, although that is a trend likely to get back to the mean sooner than later as the layers adjust.

It is funny that many of those were not just given big handicaps to cover, but they also were quoted at odds-on to do so, and that is why I have ignored most of those players in my own picks as there is no value in picking them to cover massive spreads when a routine 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 win will get them through to the next Round.


Day 3 Picks are as follows:

Florian Mayer - 5.5 games v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: Florian Mayer is one of the most awkward players to meet on the Tour and he has his quirks that can make him tough to read on the court, especially when you have not played against him before. This is very much how Radek Stepanek picked up so many wins in his career and Mayer is of the same ilk.

The German won a couple of matches in Dusseldorf last week and said he was feeling better about where is game is at and the clay courts do suit the way he plays.

Daniel Gimeno-Traver enjoys his best form on the clay courts, but he has won just 1 of 6 matches on the Main Tour on this surface this season and even that was on the controversial blue courts in Madrid. He did push Novak Djokovic to three sets at that event, but he has lost to lesser players than Mayer on the red dirt at other events this season and I think the Spaniard will be befuddled by his opponent and may struggle for the rhythm needed to win a match like this.


Nicolas Almagro - 9 games v Paolo Lorenzi: After all I have said above about the big handicaps getting the better out of a lot of the top players, you would think I would stay away from this match, but I like the match up and that makes the difference.

Nicolas Almagro doesn't really come into these Grand Slams with the real belief that he can win the event and that is probably why he went to Nice last week, although clearly showing his form by winning the event. While he won't think he can win the tournament here, I think Almagro is a lot more comfortable with his top 20 Ranking and feels he should take care of opponents like Paolo Lorenzi these days.

Lorenzi predominantly plays on the clay courts, but his successes have really come in the events a step below the Main Tour and his last three defeats have shown the difference between the Challenger events and the ATP 250 events. Richard Gasquet has beaten the Italian twice in recent weeks and has given up just 7 games in 4 sets against him, while Flavio Cipolla gave up just 3 games in a straight sets win over Lorenzi.

Nicolas Almagro will feel he is a better clay court player than both of those that have beaten Lorenzi in recent weeks and he has more than the capabilities to win a couple of these sets with a couple of breaks and that should be enough to see him through to the cover despite the large handicap.


Albert Ramos - 5.5 games v Benoit Paire: Benoit Paire will be enjoying the support of the home crowd in this one, but I think Albert Ramos is the better clay court player and will make that tell in this match.

Paire has played well on the clay courts, but generally at the lower level than the Main Tour and he was also beaten comfortably by Ramos in Barcelona meaning he has lost both meetings against his opponent, failing to win a set in any of those matches which took place on clay courts.

The left handed Ramos has a decent serve and is a little more consistent with his game, while Paire can fluctuate up and down and that should be the difference between them. The mental edge is also with the Spaniard having never lost a set to Paire in their previous meetings, including earlier this season, and I think he is going to be too strong for the Frenchman despite the home support he will be getting.


Julia Goerges - 3.5 games v Lucie Hradecka: Julia Goerges is one of the most frustrating players to watch on the WTA Tour as she seems to have all the tools to be a consistent top 20 player, but she seems to mentally check out of matches and make them closer than they should be at times.

However, when Goerges is on, she can be virtually unplayable no matter which player is standing on the other side of the court and she can begin to hit winner after winner. The clay courts seem to really favour her game, while it has taken some really top players to stop her runs this season.

Lucie Hradecka is a tough opponent, but she has not had a great time on the clay courts this season outside of her run at the tournament in Madrid with the blue courts. The Czech player reached the Semi Final there and beat some impressive players including Sam Stosur and Petra Kvitova, but she is just 2-3 on the clay courts in 2012 outside of Madrid.

Defeats to the likes of Heather Watson, Stefanie Voegele and Alexandra Panova are not so impressive and this looks a real tough test for her against Goerges.

It is possible that this match goes to three sets, but I am counting on Goerges to win at least one set impressively as she gets going and that could be enough to ensure the cover.


Yanina Wickmayer - 4.5 games v Tsvetana Pironkova: Yanina Wickmayer has not really reached the heights that she did between the 2009 and 2010 season and she is now very inconsistent in her results as shown by her 18-12 record on the season.

Wickmayer has struggled on the clay courts this season and has lost more matches than she has won, but she is 23-10 on the surface in the three previous seasons before this one and I think she is a better player on the surface than she has shown.

The Belgian should be able to take care of Tsvetana Pironkova who has had a losing record on the clay courts over the last couple of seasons and one who seems to float through the Tour without really going deep in any tournament (apart from Wimbledon where she has been successful over the last couple of seasons).

Pironkova has a win over Nadia Petrova from last week, which is impressive, but heavy defeats to Kaia Kanepi, Vania King and Anabel Medina Garrigues show a different side to her. The Bulgarian doesn't strike me as someone who will really work hard to overturn a deficit and you would have to fear for her if Wickmayer makes a fast start.

If Wickmayer can make that fast start, I will be expecting her to cover in a 6-2, 6-4 win.


MY PICKS: Tommy Haas to win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Stan James (1 Unit) To be completed with Haas leading 2-1 in sets and 4-2 in the fourth set
Florian Mayer - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 9 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Albert Ramos - 5.5 games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Yanina Wickmayer - 4.5 games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)




FRENCH OPEN UPDATE: 3-5, - 2.5 Units (14 Units Staked)