Tennis Picks May 15th (Rome)

It was a good start to the week for the picks I made, but the weather was apparently making life very difficult for the players, especially the wind being as strong as it was.

I have kept an eye on how it is supposed to be for the rest of the week, and it does seem that tomorrow is the day when the wind will be at its weakest. It is definitely something to keep a tab on when making your picks as the tournament develops.


David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: This looks like one of the best matches of the Second Round and I am going to favour the higher ranked Spaniard to continue in the draw.

David Ferrer used to have an inferiority complex when playing some of his compatriots early in his career, believing he was nothing near to as talented as some of the players he grew up with. However, that seems to have gone now and he has all the tool to frustrate Fernando Verdasco and extract enough errors to cover this spread.

Ferrer will be able to use his speed around the court to pull up a solid defence and he will force Verdasco to have to play the extra shot and that is where he is likely to make hay.

Ferrer has won the last 3 meetings between the players, two of those coming this year, and he has not lost more than 4 games in any of those matches. He destroyed Verdasco 1 and 2 in the Final at Acapulco earlier this season and, while it won't be that easy, I think he has enough to cover the spread on offer.


Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 games v Marcel Granollers: This is more a pick against Marcel Granollers than it is picking Feliciano Lopez to win on a clay court, but the lower ranked Spaniard has really been struggling for wins and confidence has to be a little shot.

Granollers has not won back to back matches on the main tour so far this season, and defeats to the likes of Frederico Gil and Julien Benneteau on the clay courts is not exactly great form.

Feliciano Lopez is one of the few Spanish players that actually has a lot more success OFF the clay courts, but he has shown some decent form on the surface this season and I think he will be able to take advantage of the errors that Granollers is likely to produce.

My biggest concern is that Lopez is not a great returner of serve, but an opponent lacking in confidence could be tailor made for him.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Victor Troicki: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is not a great clay court player as I have mentioned once or twice in the last couple of weeks, but he should be far too strong for Victor Troicki who is a player completely out of form.

Troicki has more losses than wins this season and he has only won back to back matches on the tour on two occasions so far in 2012. The Serb is in danger of falling out of the World Top 32 at the moment, but he continues to suffer surprising defeats while also showing little fight in matches where he falls behind.

Tsonga can at least point to a couple of decent wins on the clay courts already this season over the likes of Fernando Verdasco and Philip Kohlschreiber, and I think he has enough confidence in his locker to see off Troicki.

Interestingly, Troicki has a 3-1 head to head record against Tsonga in the past, although the Frenchman's sole win came here in Rome a couple of seasons ago for the loss of just 5 games.


Sam Querrey v Jarkko Nieminen: I am going to take the American to come through this First Round match as he looks a little more battle hardened at the moment after qualifying for the main draw with good wins over Simone Bolelli and Mikhail Kukushkin.

Jarkko Nieminen has not played for around two weeks in a competitive match, and he has not exactly been in great form even when he was on the court. His last match was a defeat to Benoit Paire and he may just get caught here by Querrey who should be full of confidence having won 7 matches in a row including a Challenger tournament back in the United States.

The clay courts are not usually the favourite surface of the big serving American players, but I just think he can get through this one as the underdog and is worth taking a chance on.


MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Querrey @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 3-1, + 3.24 Units (8 Units Staked)