Tennis Picks May 16th (Rome)

It wasn't a great day yesterday as I finished where I had started thanks to a 2-2 day with the 4 picks I made. To be honest, I am pretty happy I got out with that record considering the first two picks went down without much of a fight.

I was also happy and sad at the same time when I watched the David Nalbandian-Andy Murray match in the evening- I was happy to see Nalbandian playing as well as he did after he was crushed in the first set, but sad as he didn't have the luck on his side as Murray needed a net cord to break serve and then saved two break points by clipping lines.

Still, it shows Nalbandian is in good enough form to hopefully cause some problems at the French Open, while I think he may just have moved into one of the seeded positions for that tournament with his win in the First Round here.

My picks for Wednesday follow:

Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Vania King: Anyone who read my outright preview of the event knows I believe that Angelique Kerber could have a big week here and I would expect her to deal with Vania King in the form she has been in.

Neither one of the players has a great pedigree on the clay courts in their careers, but Kerber has begun to show she is more than capable on the surface this season and it has taken some of the best players on the Tour to stop here in the tournaments so far.

Kerber was not at her best in the First Round but coming through that match should give her confidence while she has won the only previous meeting between these players on a clay court a couple of years ago.


Samantha Stosur - 2.5 games v Sara Errani: I can only think that Sam Stosur has some sort of niggling injury that she is being priced so high to beat Sara Errani, especially considering she has won all 4 previous meetings between the players, although all of those have been on the hard courts.

Stosur is a former French Open Finalist so she has plenty of pedigree on the clay courts and she has been a Quarter Finalist in Madrid last week and in Stuttgart on the surface.

Errani is playing at home and she did win tournamenta in Budapest, Acapulco and Barcelona this season on the clay courts, but she won just 1 game in a loss to Agnieska Radwanska last week and she was heavily beaten by Victoria Azarenka here last season.

I think the Australian will be too strong on merit, but keep an eye out for injury news as this price looks far too nice.


Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 games v Anabel Medina Garrigues: I am also taking the former World Number 1 today as I think her game plan can frustrate Anabel Medina Garrigues into making the mistakes that should lead to a straight forward win for Caroline Wozniacki.

Wozniacki has had some tough draws in the clay court season so it is no surprise she hasn't been seen at the latter end of tournaments, but this is a decent player for her to play as she will be allowed to get into her rhythm and Medina Garrigues is unlikely to hit through her with consistency.

The Spaniard has also lost heavily in matches she has lost recently, while a 6-1, 6-2 loss to Simona Halep is concerning as she is someone that has a similar defensive abilities as Wozniacki.

The Dane has also won the last two matches between the players and would have covered this spread in those wins.


Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: Roger Federer dealt with the conditions in Madrid brilliantly to win the event last week and move into the top 2 in the World Rankings and I expect he is going to be too strong for Carlos Berlocq who has had injury worries of late.

Federer should be able to find a couple of breaks in one of the sets that should take him to the cover in the match and he should move through comfortably in this one as long as he doesn't make too many changes to his game to 'test' himself.

Berlocq has had a solid season, but he can make a lot of errors and that will be exposed by Federer here in my opinion.


Gilles Simon - 4.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: This is a bit of a risky pick, but I think Gilles Simon is playing well enough at the moment to cause Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to give up enough service breaks and fail to stay within the cover in this one.

Simon beat Garcia-Lopez in Madrid last week and I think his win in Budapest will give him confidence that he can beat the Spaniard who is ranked at number 85 in the World.

I expect Simon will be able to frustrate Garcia-Lopez with his ability to force an opponent to play one more ball and that should give him the chance to break serve enough times to lead to a comfortable enough straight sets win.


John Isner - 2.5 games v Andrea Seppi: My biggest concern here is that John Isner looked so unmotivated in his win over Philip Kohlschreiber until deep into the match and how he deals with the Italian crowd that will be behind their compatriot Andreas Seppi is the key to the who match.

Most people would think the likes of Isner would hate the slower surfaces, but he has said it gives him time on the ball while not really affecting his serve and you have to believe a man that pushed Rafael Nadal to 5 sets at the French Open last year and also beat Roger Federer on the surface in a Davis Cup tie in Switzerland earlier this year.

Seppi is a solid player and did win in Belgrade, but his serve is very vulnerable and I think he will give Isner at least a couple of opportunities per set to break his serve and that will make it tough for him to come back.

Isner did need 5 sets to beat Seppi at the Australian Open in 2010, but he is an improved player since then and I think he can win this match with a break in each set.


MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Samantha Stosur - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 4.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 5-3, + 3.24 Units (16 Units Staked)