Tennis Picks May 8th (Madrid)

So the reason I didn't make any outright predictions this week was simply down to the new blue clay courts that have been laid in Madrid and the lukewarm response it has gotten from the best players on the Tour.

Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Maria Sharapova have all been vocal about this change from tradition and, added to the fact that Madrid is one of the fastest venues to play tennis due to the altitude of the event, I believe there are too may unknown factors to take someone in with a serious belief.

I also decided not to make any picks on the first couple of days of the event so I can get a feel for the tournament myself.

The courts looked cool when I first saw them, but now that initial surprise has worn off, I can understand why some of the players are upset that they are not played on the traditional red clay. I am not convinced it is playing exactly the same as the red dirt, no matter how much I hear the only difference is the colour, but I can understand the argument that it does make it easier for people watching on TV to see the clear contrast between the ball and the blue of the court.

Do I think it will catch on and move to other events? Will Wimbledon or Queens decide they should spray their grass courts blue? I am not sure about that at all- Madrid seems the only venue that really wants to push the boundaries, but I don't think tournaments are going to want to alienate their top players so I can't see others following suit just yet.

However, I expect Madrid to embrace this colour for their courts for the foreseeable future, unless a lobby of the top players make a complaint at the end of the tournament that they felt it played too differently to the red clay courts.

Anyway, let us get on with the picks for Tuesday:


Marin Cilic - 4 games v Albert Montanes: I consider Albert Montanes nothing more than a 'gatekeeper' in terms of the clay courts at this stage of his career, one that will trouble the lesser players but will really struggle against players that are comfortable playing on the surface.

Marin Cilic is such a player after reaching the Final in Munich last week and I think he will have too much in his all around game for Montanes.

The Spaniard did beat Milos Raonic on a clay court recently, but he has fallen to Juan Martin Del Potro, David Ferrer and Janko Tipsarevic in recent matches on this surface and I think Cilic will be too good for him.


Richard Gasquet - 1.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: Richard Gasquet showed some decent form in reaching the Final in Estoril last week and I think he is going to back up his 2-0 head to head record against Thomaz Bellucci in this one.

Gasquest beat the Brazilian at the French Open last year in 4 sets and is also facing an opponent that hasn't played in a few weeks due to an abdominal strain.

Bellucci is a bit of an enigma as he has shown in the past- he reached the Semi Final in Rome last year on the clay courts and has beaten David Ferrer this year, but he has also suffered defeats to the likes of Robin Haase, Marcel Granollers, Filippo Volandri and Federico Delbonis on the surface.

With Gasquet showing some form last week, I have to back the Frenchman at odds a little shorter than evens.


Lucie Safarova - 3.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: I am going to take the Czech player to beat Carla Suarez Navarro as the latter picked up a big win over Jelena Jankovic in a tight three setter yesterday and this has the makings of 'after the Lord Mayor's show' about it.

Navarro has played a lot of tennis recently after reaching the Final in Estoril last week too, but defeats to Alize Cornet and Sara Errani shows she is still very inconsistent.

Safarova reached the Final in Charleston before falling to Serena Williams and she has already beaten Kaia Kanepi, the winner in Estoril last week, in the First Round. Her confidence should be high and I think the will have the edge in the physical department and that should allow her to win and get through with this spread covered.


Shahar Peer v Varvara Lepchenko: I am taking the underdog in this match as I think these two players are very closely matched, yet I would have favoured Shahar Peer in the match.

Neither of these players have been in great form in the 2012 season, but Peer has definitely accomplished more on the clay courts than Varvara Lepchenko in the last few seasons, while she also holds a 2-0 lead in the head to head between the players.

I just have a feeling that Lepchenko's win over Francesca Schiavone in the First Round is what has determined her as the favourite in this match, but I don't think that is enough reason and so I will take the Israeli to move on.


MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 4 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 1.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Shahar Peer @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)




Season 2012 Update: + 32.48 Units (328 Units Staked, 9.90% Yield)
Season 2011 Final: + 82.02 Units