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Monday 21 May 2012

Tennis Recap (May 13-20, Rome)

It was a horrible week in terms of picking daily winners, but the outright market proved very profitable with both Maria Sharapova and Rafael Nadal winning the Women's and Men's events respectively.

This is the last real important tournament before the French Open which begins next Monday, although we do have events in France and Germany this week. The problem with those events is the motivation of the top seeded players that may want to reserve some gas for the first week of the Grand Slam next week.

Anyway, below is just a few thoughts from the Rome event that was concluded today:


Rafael Nadal back up to World Number 2: I think Roger Federer would have been secretly hoping that Novak Djokovic could have won this event as soon as he was beaten in the Semi Finals to the Serbian.


Rafael Nadal's win in Rome means they have moved up to World Number 2 and that means, once again, that Roger Federer is likely going to have to beat the two best players in the World if he wants to win the French Open for a second time.


By moving up to Number 2, Federer can at least think he has a 50-50 chance of avoiding Rafael Nadal in his draw and know he could take his chances if Nadal and Djokovic were involved in an epic Semi Final, and those little things can make the difference when winning a Grand Slam or not.


It looks unlikely that Federer can get the Number 2 position back before Wimbledon, something I think he was looking for, unless there is a serious surprise at Roland Garros.




Andy Murray's back injury: Andy Murray exited the tournament in Rome with little fuss against Richard Gasquet and subsequently told the journalists at his press conference that he is suffering with a back injury that has been niggling him since December.


This doesn't bode well for him in an important year with the French Open, Wimbledon and the Olympics all coming up in quick succession and the US Open to follow. Murray has always made the first few rounds of a Grand Slam event much more difficult than they need to be and this back injury is only going to hinder his chances even more if he is  as uncomfortable as he suggested.


He will always need a nice draw, a bit of luck and the nerve at crucial times if he is going to win a Grand Slam, but an injury is not going to help his cause and I just can't see a breakthrough coming for him this season.




I've changed my mind, Serena Williams is the player to beat at Roland Garros: Last week, I said that Serena Williams was a little short as the favourite to win in Paris this season as the conditions in Madrid helped her win that tournament.


However, she looked imperious this week in Rome and was cruising through her matches and was only prevented from winning the tournament because she had to pull out with an injury. Williams has since said it was a precautionary pull-out and she expects to be fully ready for Paris.


With Victoria Azarenka's participation in Paris in doubt, the only player I would even consider backing to beat Serena Williams is Maria Sharapova, but if the American gets the right kind of draw, I can't look beyond her.


Williams has looked motivated and focused on what has been her worst surface to play on... Pencil her name in for Wimbledon if she stays healthy, especially with the form she has shown in the last month.




The Men's event is not much more open than the Women's: You get these big articles ahead of the Grand Slams that seems to list up to 8 Men that can possibly win the event and, while I don't agree it ever gets to that many, you can understand the excitement about these Slams.


The French Open doesn't exactly inspire me the same way to be honest as I can't look beyond the top two players in the World as to who will win this event.


The likes of Roger Federer, Juan Martin Del Potro, Tomas Berdych and Andy Murray could possibly throw a spanner in the works, but I would almost certainly think the player they trouble is Novak Djokovic rather than Rafael Nadal.


I would heavily favour Nadal against any of the four players listed on a clay court, and I think he has proven that he has the better of Djokovic on the surface after reversing his surprise losses to the Serbian last season including here at Rome.


One year ago, Nadal was a short odds against shot to win the French Open, but there is no chance of getting anything like that this year. Already, I do favour Nadal to take this tournament unless he gets a gruesome draw and even then I would just hope that his price comes out rather than expecting him to lose.




Weekly Update: 9-12, - 6.32 Units (41 Units Staked)
Outright Update: 2-1, + 8.75 Units (8 Units Staked)


Season Update: + 36.51 Units (403 Units Staked, 9.06% Yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

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