LAMP'S Betting Blog

Introduction

Good Evening Ladies and Gentleman.

My name is Vinny and often I write football previews on http://www.goonersguide.com/ as LAMPS. 

Despite only contributing for half a season my yield was very healthy when betting on the Barclays Premiership as seen by this link: http://www.goonersguide.com/english_football.php

Fellow contributor and good pal Dav has invited me to vent my thoughts on his blog as well as my previews.

I will mainly post direct links to GoonersGuide to read my previews in full but whenever I fancy a ramble you can catch that here too.

Hope you all enjoy my previews as well as Dav's and hopefully we can combine to make greater profits in the future.

Good Luck

Lamps

[Dav's Comment]: I hope you guys enjoy this column that will be in for the duration of the Euro 2012 tournament.

I invited Vinny (Lamps) to run a thread on the tournament as he has been excellent with his tips throughout the course of the season and I really respect the research he does for every pick he makes.

I look forward to reading this column throughout the tournament which begins on Friday and I hope you all do the same.

7th June 2012 - Euro 2012 Ante Post Thoughts

After those kind words from Dav- lets get down to business!

With the Euro's starting tomorrow I wanted to talk about a few bets that I've taken ante post that are more "specials" than anything outright. Hopefully you guys agree and get on, although I can't confirm what the prices are now so you'll have to double check that yourselves!

Danny Welbeck Under 0.5 goals at 1.80 Pinnaclesports

Now this bet doesn't look as good as it did 2 weeks ago when I took it! I personally think England could go out at the group stages and if they make it out, it will be as runners up and then Spain should see them off. So already I think England won't get many games which helps this bet.

Rooney is out of the first two games meaning Carroll or Welbeck will start up top. I persoanlly beleive after the FA Cup Final that Carroll is the man to start, he leads the line well and gives England an easy direct ball when in trouble.

However, Welbeck looked sharp and took his goal well in the 1-0 win over Belgium giving Roy some real headaches in his team selection. Even if Welbeck does get the nod I can't see him getting many chances and unless he finishes like he did v Belgium ie. 1 half chance 1 goal then I'll hold my hands up.

After the first 2 games, of which he may only have had a hat full of minutes then Mr Rooney is back and that should be that for Danny. Many will not like this bet after the Belgium goal but I'd still take it now at the 4/5 price.

Russa > 4.5 points at 1.80 Bodog

Group A is weak- there is no beating around the bush here. Russia are a class above all 3 other sides and "should" top this group.

Advocaat's side open their account against the Czech Rep who in my eyes are the worst team at the Euros let alone Group A. If they win this one then two draws will be enough to cover this line which seems very reasonable to me.

I expect this team to win at least two of their three games and against the Czech Republic, Greece and Poland this could well be  a 9 point group win for the Russians. The biggest fear is they tank against the Czech's but I love the fact this bet can win and they only need to win one game!

Czech Republic Under 3.5 tournament goals at 1.93 Pinnaclesports

As mentioned above I don't rate the Czech's- and as a result I think they will struggle for goals in a group against 3 tight defesice sides.

Poland in Poland, I see perhaps 1 goal but no more, but then against the Greeks who conceded only 5 in qualifying whilst on their current run of 1 loss in 20 won't be easy, so again max of 1 goal. Finally against Russia the best side in the group looks a huge ask with Advocaat's side having kept 6 clean sheets in their last 7 competiteive matches including one against Italy in a recent 3-0 friendly win.

Two of the sides key attackers are Baros 8 goals this season and Rosicky 1 goal this season. Both are in major decline in my eyes and expecting them to get some goals is asking a lot for me. This was highlighted even further by the fact that the left back Kadlec was the sides top scorer in qualifying!

Hopefully this side gets beaten well by Russia in game 1, Greece will frustrate them into submission in game 2 and then come game 3 Poland will need this win more and that will be that for Bilek's men.

Good Luck

Daily Picks- Group Stage

As I publish all my picks over at Goonersguide I will attach the appropriate links to all my full previews below. I may add the odd comment if anything drastically changes in between writing and kick off. To make things easy to read my pick will be summarised at the bottom of each Group.

Just for clarity- all picks are for 1 unit at level stakes.

Group A:


Poland v Greece: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14365-Poland-v-Greece.htm

Russia v Czech Republic: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14366-Russia-v-Czech-Republic.htm 

Greece v Czech Republic: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14412-Greece-v-Czech-Republic.htm

Poland v Russia: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14414-Poland-v-Russia.htm

Czech Republic v Poland: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14451-Czech-Republic-v-Poland.htm

Greece v Russia: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14452-Greece-v-Russia.htm

Summary:
Poland to win - evens general quote
Russia to win - 2.15 Bet Victor
Russia -0.75 AH - 2.90 with Pinnaclesports
Greece +0.25 AH - 1.962 with Pinnaclesports
Cze/Pol - Over 2.75 goals 2.51 with Pinnaclesports
Russia -0.75 AH 2.07 with Pinnaclesports


Group B:


Germany v Portugal: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14369-Germany-v-Portugal.htm

Holland v Denmark: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14366-Russia-v-Czech-Republic.htm


Denmark v Portugal: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14415-Denmark-v-Portugal.htm


Holland v Germany: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14416-Holland-v-Germany.htm
Denmark v Germany: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14468-Denmark-v-Germany.htm
Portugal v Holland: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14469-Portugal-v-Holland.htm


Summary:
Ger/Por Both teams to score yes: 1.80 general quote
Den/Hol both teams to score: yes 2.05 Bodog
Den/Por Over 2.75 goals at 2.77 with Pinnaclesports
Hol/Ger Over 2.75 goals at 2.352 with Pinnaclesports
Den/Ger Over 2.75 goals at 2.23 with Pinnaclesports
Por/Hol Over 2.75 goals at 2.03 with Pinnaclesports


Group C:


Spain v Italy:http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14365-Poland-v-Greece.htm
 
Republic of Ireland v Croatia: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14373-Republic-of-Ireland-v-Croatia.htm





Italy v Croatia: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14424-Italy-v-Croatia.htm


Spain v Republic of Ireland: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14425-Spain-v-Republic-of-Ireland.htm

Croatia v Spain: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14480-Croatia-v-Spain.htm


Italy v Republic of Ireland: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14481-Italy-v-Republic-of-Ireland.htm


Summary:
Spa/Ita - Time of first goal >27 minutes Bodog evens
Cro/Ire- Ire +0.5 AH at 1.78 Pinnaclesports
Ita/Cro- Under 2.25 goals 1.71 Pinnaclesports
Spa -1.75 AH 2.2 Paddy Power 
Spa -0.75 at 2.08 with Pinnaclesports
Ire +1.5 at 2.02 with Pinnaclesports


Group D:


France v England:http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14365-Poland-v-Greece.htm
Ukraine v Sweden: http://www.blogger.com/goog_912427365



Sweden v England: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14439-Sweden-v-England.htm


Ukraine v France: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14438-Ukraine-v-France.htm

England v Ukraine: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14486-England-v-Ukraine.htm


Sweden v France: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14487-Sweden-v-France.htm





Summary:
Fra/Eng- Fra +0 AH 1.752 Pinnaclesports
Ukr/Swe- Swe +0.25 1.825 Bet365
Eng -0.75 2.58 Pinanclesports
Fra -0.75 2.55 Pinnaclesports
England -0.75 2.71 Pinnaclesports
Fra/Swe - Ov 2.75 2.16 Pinnaclesports

Daily Picks- Quarter Finals

Czech Republic v Portugal: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14501-Czech-Republic-v-Portugal.htm


Germany v Greece: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14514-Germany-v-Greece.htm

Spain v France: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14515-Spain-v-France.htm


England v Italy: http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-14516-England-v-Italy.htm


Summary:
Por -0.75 at 2.025 with Pinnaclesports
Gomez/Ger Wincast at 2.30 with Betfred
Spa >1.5 goals at 2.35 with Pinanclesports
Eng/Ita BTTS: Yes 2.25 with Pinnaclesports

Daily Picks- Semi Finals

Spain v Portugal: http://www.goonersguide.com/match_detail.php?matchID=14531


Germany v Italy: http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14538-Germany-v-Italy.htm


Summary: 
Spa >1.5 goals at 2.60 with Pinanclesports
Germany to win by 1 goal at 3.75 with Ladbrokes

Daily Picks- Finals

Spain v Italy: http://www.goonersguide.com/match_detail.php?matchID=14547

Summary: 
Spa to win to nil 3.10 with Pinanclesports


Good Luck