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Friday 29 June 2012

Wimbledon Day 5 Picks (June 29th 2012)

This has to have been one of the more 'headline-making' days during the course of the entire tennis season so far as news story after news story made the rounds before the surprise exit of Rafael Nadal in the Second Round of the tournament.

The day began with the sports pages all talking about Gilles Simon who had made the comment that Women do not deserve equal pay at the Grand Slams as he felt the Men were bringing in more coverage and thus should be reflected in the payroll scale. It was interesting as the Frenchman has just been elected to join the ATP Player Council for the next two years so is clearly someone that has the respect of his peers.

You got the normal reaction from some who will criticise anyone that is not 'politically correct' in any statements they make (these same people are also the ones most vocal about the lack of characters in sports these days, yet won't want anyone to rock the boat with anything they have to say to the press). Others shrugged their shoulders, while it was obvious that Simon was going to be grilled in his Press Conference following his match with Xavier Malisse.

Simon has also been criticised by some of the female players on the Tour, but he has been fighting his corner and openly stated that every other male player actually feels the same way.

What's my take on the matter? I actually semi-agree with Simon if I am honest... I don't think there should be level pay on the Grand Slam level as the Men play best of five sets and so should be given more money for essentially doing more work. HOWEVER, I do think some of the Masters events, like Miami and Indian Wells for example, that have Men and Women events should actually make the prize money the same as they do the same amount of work.

Some of the players suggested that TV ratings should determine which of the two Tours deserve more money, but that makes no sense as it swings in roundabouts where both have the edge at different times.

I do think the WTA Tour should be pushing for their matches to be extended to best of five at the Grand Slam level though to make this argument moot. I keep hearing how the Women work just as hard as the Men, so I don't think there will be a fitness issue, although it may be tough for tournaments to be completed on time if there are too many matches going the distance and lasting for a few hours.

That shouldn't be an argument against extending the Women matches to best of five though, and I think it would make a lot of sense for them to do so for the Grand Slams. It would differentiate the Slams from the other tournaments, as it does for the ATP Tour currently, and I actually think it would make the Women matches more exciting as more momentum shifts means more drama.

This is just a personal view, but this sounds like an issue that may just be under the spotlight again.


Andy Murray got through to the Third Round today and later drama means there will be growing expectation on the British Number 1 to reach his first Wimbledon Final. However, the biggest story coming out of his match was the Press Conference given by Ivo Karlovic in which he essentially said he was 'cheated' out of a win by a number of foot faults that were called against him.

There were 11 foot faults in all and, as Karlovic told the media, they all seemed to come at big moments in the match and this is a definite controversy that needs to be nipped in the bud immediately if the reputation of the tournament is going to be kept intact.

Someone needs to view the video of the foot faults ASAP and prove that they were made- the big issue is that foot faults are generally ignored these days so something needs to be done as to why so many were called today.

I am sure someone will have checked the video by the time you read this, but the 'integrity' of the tournament will be at stake if it is proved that the line judges were making mistakes in calling them over and over... What can they do if that was the case anyway?

There may be fines and there may be suspensions, but a player has been knocked out of the tournament now and this has to be settled so there are no other issues like this going forward. It was a stunning comment by Karlovic today and one that will need to be resolved- I also cannot wait for the reaction he gets when he goes out to play doubles tomorrow morning.


Finally, the drama I talked about above was the fact that Rafael Nadal has been knocked out of the tournament by a player ranked at Number 100 in the World- this is also the lowest ranked player that has beaten Nadal on the Tour and it was a stunning achievement from Lukas Rosol.

Nadal was outhit by Rosol, but he must have been cursing his misfortune of having to play in an indoor court against an opponent that was hitting monster serves and playing some lights out tennis. It was simply some stunning tennis from Rosol and he didn't seem to think about what he was about to achieve as he served out in the fifth set with two aces to wrap up the game.

The tennis played was once-in-a-lifetime stuff and this was probably the biggest surprise I have witnessed in the Grand Slams (in the Men's draw) since Robin Soderling beat Nadal at the French Open in 2009.

There were plenty of similarities to that match in my mind as I continued to wait for the moment when Rosol would make a couple of mistakes and open the door for the Spaniard, but it didn't come and Rosol was a worthy winner.

The expectations on Andy Murray will have increased as that seems to have opened up the bottom half of the draw, but I think the real beneficiary may be Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who has nothing to fear from his Quarter of the draw.

Murray still has a couple of tough matches to negotiate before he gets to the Semi Finals, while Tsonga seems to have a clear run in all honesty and the Frenchman may just get a chance to prove he was right in saying he can beat Novak Djokovic on grass having pushed him so hard at the French Open.


Random thought: After seeing how the Nadal match finished, how much will Roger Federer be begging for rain on Semi Final day next Friday if he has Novak Djokovic as his opponent?


Day 5 Picks:

Janko Tipsarevic - 3.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: Janko Tipsarevic has lost his last two matches against Mikhail Youzhny, but the last of those came back in 2010 and I think the careers of these two players have gone in opposite directions since then and the Serb World Number 8 is likely to be too strong this time.

Tipsarevic has been serving pretty effectively during this tournament and I think he is enjoying the faster conditions that seem to be in operation at the moment. He has also played on this court before in the event and should be used to his surroundings unlike Youzhny who has been placed off the show courts.

The Russian is still a tough prospect and has moved through the draw without any real worries so far, but this is a marked rise in quality of opponent and Youzhny has also had an issue in protecting his own serve so far this season.

It wouldn't be a massive surprise if the match did indeed go into four sets, but I do like Tipsarevic coming through 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4.


Richard Gasquet - 1.5 sets v Nicolas Almagro: My big concern about this match is the fact that Nicolas Almagro has a 3-0 head to head record against Richard Gasquet and I know the Frenchman can sometimes find it tough to escape the mental aspect of matches.

However, I think Gasquet is definitely the better grass court player of the two and I think he will eventually be able to show that off.

Both have been effective behind serve for much of the tournament so far, but it is Almagro who has been forced to spend more time on the court and that can come back to haunt a player especially if they are to fall behind in the match.

The players are likely to be showing off two of the best backhands on the court (expect the commentators to cream over that fact at least ten times during the course of the match), but Gasquet is a former Semi Finalist here and I think the grass court pedigree he has will be the difference.

This is possibly going to four sets, but I will look for Gasquet to be the player making his way into the Fourth Round on Monday.


Sabine Lisicki - 2.5 games v Sloane Stephens: This is a fascinating match, but it is one that I think Sabine Lisicki can come through.

Sloane Stephens is an up and coming player on the WTA Tour, but the young American doesn't have the same grass court pedigree as the German who reached the Semi Final here last season and that may just make the difference in this one.

Stephens has performed well this season as she looks to get up the Rankings, but I think she has come up a little short against some of the better players and Lisicki, on a grass court, does fall into that category as far as I am concerned.

Some may be concerned that Lisicki had to win a long third set to get to this match, but take a look at what she did last year- Lisicki had to come from a set behind to win 8-6 in the third against Na Li and then went on and comfortably won her Third Round match.

I don't expect it to be that easy, but a 6-4, 6-4 win for Lisicki would not be a big surprise.


Shuai Peng - 2.5 games v Arantxa Rus: I am going for the occasion to be a little too much for Arantxa Rus in this one having caused one of the surprises of the tournaments when she beat Samantha Stosur in three sets.

Shuai Peng is a decent grass court player, reaching the Fourth Round here last season, and I think the Chinese player can be a little too consistent for Rus in this one.

It wouldn't be the first time that a player causing a surprise is then beaten in the next match they play, while Rus has not really had a deep run in any of the grass court tournaments she has previously played.

The lefty serve may cause Peng a few early problems in all honesty, but I think she can get in front once she has the hang of that and come through possibly 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.


MY PICKS: Janko Tipsarevic - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 1.5 sets @ 1.85 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Sabine Lisicki - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Shuai Peng - 2.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Wimbledon Update: 9-7, + 5.72 Units (31 Units Staked)

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