Wimbledon Day 11 Picks (July 6th 2012)

It is time for the Men's Semi Finals and I think we are going to have two top quality matches to look forward to. The Women's matches were a little anti-climatic in all honesty so I will be hoping that these two Semi Finals are a little more intriguing.

Roger Federer + 1.5 sets v Novak Djokovic: I have been thinking and thinking about this match between these two rivals, but I just have a feeling that it is going to be settled in five sets no matter which way it ends up going.

Federer has had a couple of different scares in this tournament, notably the five setter against Julien Benneteau and then the injury time out against Xavier Malisse, but he has been talking up his chances and I think he feels confident on this surface to cause a surprise against the World Number 1.

In saying that, a win for Federer would see him reclaim the World Number 1 position from Djokovic and he will also have a chance to equal Pete Sampras' record of seven titles here at Wimbledon.

The backhand slice is likely to cause Djokovic problems on the surface, and the Serb has actually been talking up that shot so will be prepared for it. Federer should have the edge in the serve department, but Djokovic is probably the best returner in the game at the moment so that edge can be nullified.

It is the reason that these two have played so many tight matches against one another in the past at the Grand Slam events and, despite the fact that the Djokovic took the French Open Semi Final in straight sets, I think this will be yet another tough battle between them.

There is also the slight tension between the players, even if Federer says that is all in the past, and that makes this must-watch TV. I just think the Swiss man is completely up for this match and will at least make this close.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 3.5 games v Andy Murray: This might look like one of the dumbest picks of the year as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has struggled with a back complaint in his last two victories, but there is also a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Andy Murray to reach a Wimbledon Final and that can be a tough situation to produce your best tennis.

I read Boris Becker's column that said he believes Murray is playing well enough to win Wimbledon, but I think he has been a touch fortunate in his own last couple of matches, especially against David Ferrer who should have found a way to go into a 2-0 lead in sets when serving for the second set.

I just have a feeling that Tsonga is going to thrive in this spot with all the pressure on his opponent and we may just see one of those performances from the Frenchman that he is capable of producing.

Tsonga will have to mix up his game a little if he is to win the match overall as he cannot allow Murray to start getting a read on his serve. I would probably advice him to use more serve-volley tactics than he has in the tournament so far and not allow Murray to just chip the ball back and start the rally.

The Frenchman also needs to keep points short as possible and that means playing aggressive tennis, but with the balance of not just going for winners from all angles. He will also be able to get some pressure on Murray on the returning game as that has been an area where the British player has struggled a little bit during the last week- while he has been saving break points behind some big serves, he is giving up a lot of opportunities and that can lead to problems.

Murray does have a 5-1 head to head record on the main ATP Tour, although Tsonga did win a Challenger match against him back in 2004. Murray has won 4 matches in a row since losing in the Australian Open First Round back in 2008, and that includes 2 victories on grass.

However, the match last year at Queens was very, very close and we could see something similar develop here which would allow Tsonga to cover even in a losing effort (much like David Ferrer did in the last Round against Andy Murray).


MY PICKS: Roger Federer + 1.5 sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 3.5 games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (1 Unit)


Wimbledon Update: 18-16, + 4.98 Units (66 Units Staked)