Wimbledon Day 7 Picks (July 2nd 2012)

We have reached the half way stage of the third Grand Slam of the season and there has already been plenty of drama to suggest there is much to look forward to over the next seven days. Unfortunately, the weather forecast does not look that good for the next few days and there is a chance that some players are going to have to get some double-duty action in order to progress in the tournament.

Those players that are fortunate enough to play on Centre Court will not be affected as Wimbledon are likely to put the roof to good use over the next couple of days, but the twelve or so Fourth Round matches that are scheduled on outside courts should make it interesting to see what the All-England Club are going to do.

Ivo Karlovic is likely to be a very interested spectator when viewing the schedule on each day as Andy Murray has been placed on Court One tomorrow and the big Croatian's view that the tournament is biased in favour of the British Number 1 is already severely damaged by that fact.

Hopefully we will get enough tennis on Monday for the Day 7 Picks:

Roger Federer - 7.5 games v Xavier Malisse: I remain very sceptical in how healthy Roger Federer is at the moment- he is not serving as effectively as usual and his groundstrokes also seem to be lacking some of the power they usually have and I think the six time Wimbledon Champion can thank his lucky stars that he is still in the tournament after being forced to come back from two sets down against Julien Benneteau on Friday to make his way through to the Fourth Round.

Xavier Malisse is very good on the grass courts, but I don't think he is capable of causing a surprise in this one as he is definitely on the way down in his career despite having a good month or so on the grass.

The other factor is Malisse is down 0-9 against Federer in the head to heads and that can be a tough mental barrier to break down for any player. The Belgian has lost the six sets he has played against Federer, including a comfortable straight sets win for the latter at the Australian Open.

These two did meet at Wimbledon back in 2001 when Federer needed five sets to see of Malisse, but I don't think that will be the case this time and a 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 win for the Swiss man would not be that surprising.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 5.5 games v Mardy Fish: I think there has to be a lot of credit given to Mardy Fish that he has made in through to the second week here at Wimbledon following the rumoured heart palpitations he had been suffering.

The American finally overtook Andy Roddick as the top player from his own Country last season, but this health issue has meant he has not played a lot of tennis over the last three months and it is tough to think he can beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the form he is in right now.

Tsonga has allayed all fears about the injury to his finger with three impressive displays to get through to the Fourth Round and he has yet to drop serve in the tournament.

He is bound to put a lot of pressure on Mardy Fish in the match and the lack of competitive tennis can really tell on the latter as this match progresses.

Tsonga also won both matches against Fish last season and I think the Frenchman is the better player on the grass courts- I think he should be good enough to find a break in a couple of sets and that should set him on the way to a cover.


Richard Gasquet - 5.5 games v Florian Mayer: Florian Mayer is one of the most awkward players to meet on the ATP Tour as he uses a mixture of spins and slices to change the tempo of matches and those can confuse opponents who are just not used to seeing players do that any more.

That shouldn't be the case for Richard Gasquet in this match as he beat Mayer twice last season and has won the last five sets the two players have competed against one another. Gasquet has also been enjoying a solid Wimbledon so far and may feel he can give the best players some game on the grass courts where he was a Semi Finalist in the past.

Mayer has also been involved in a couple of long matches already here and it will be interesting to see how much the German has still got left in the tank. The first set may also be close as Gasquet readjusts to the Mayer game, but I do expect the Frenchman to be too strong and come through fairly comfortably when it is all said and done.

As I have said many times over the last two seasons, I truly believe Gasquet can thrive in situations where he thinks he is the better player and this is one of those occasions.


Ana Ivanovic + 4.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: I am not a big fan of backing Ana Ivanovic these days as she is so up and down with her performances, but she has shown some decent signs here over the last week and I think she has the capabilities of taking a set from this match, even if she might not complete the job and move through to the Quarter Final stage.

Victoria Azarenka has been comfortable so far in the tournament, but this is the best player she would have played and it will be interesting to see how close to her best she really has been playing.

And Azarenka will need to be at her best as they have split their head to head 2-2, while the last three meetings have been close affairs, and it is Ivanovic that has come out on top on two of those occasions.

They met earlier this year on the clay courts of Madrid and Azarenka won 6-4, 6-4... Those courts are probably the closest thing to grass as it was a slippery court and the ball had an awkward bounce at times, traits associated with the grass in the past.

With matches generally being close between the two, I think the layers have taken a chance with the amount of games given to Ivanovic, especially as she is capable of taking a set off Azarenka, and that will be my play.


MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 7.5 games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic + 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Wimbledon Update: 14-10, + 9.42 Units (47 Units Staked)