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Friday 17 August 2012

Tennis Picks August 17th (Cincinnati)

The Cincinnati Masters have reached the Quarter Finals of both the Men's and Women's tournaments, although there are still a couple of Third Round matches to be completed in the latter due to the weather last night.

It could be another stop-start occasion today, especially early on when there are showers forecast, but there looks to be a big enough window to get through all the matches on schedule.

The wind could be an issue for some of the players today, while it remains humid in Mason, and that is something to consider on the day.


Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Marin Cilic: As I said, it is going to be a little windy today and I think that may affect Marin Cilic more than Novak Djokovic in this match, particularly considering his high ball toss on serve.

Djokovic has been playing some solid tennis over the last two weeks in Toronto and here in Cincinnati after a couple of really disappointing losses at Wimbledon and the London Olympics- it wasn't the fact that he lost to Roger Federer, Andy Murray and Juan Martin Del Potro, it was the lack of fight in those matches once he fell behind and almost a lack of belief that he could win.

Granted he has only played one top 10 player in the last two weeks since the Olympics, but he should still be a little too consistent for Cilic who can lose his will in matches if he believes all is lost.

The Croatian has had three tight wins this week, but he has an erratic forehand and his best shot, the backhand, can be negated by Djokovic with his own backhand groundstrokes.

Djokovic has a 6-0 head to head record against Cilic, although this will be their first meeting in 12 months. The last two have been fairly comfortable wins for Djokovic and I will look for him to make that a hat-trick today.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Mardy Fish: The last three times Roger Federer has met Mardy Fish he has recorded two tough wins and suffered one loss, but they seem to be in different places at this moment in time and I think he may have one of his more comfortable matches against the American.

Federer does lead the head to head 7-1, but as I said, the previous three matches have been touch and go as to who will win. At the moment, Federer is playing some of the best tennis on the Tour having won at Wimbledon, taken the Silver Medal from the Olympics and recorded a couple of easy wins this week with good looking performances.

Fish has also been very comfortable this week despite playing some tough opponents like Feliciano Lopez and Radek Stepanek, but this is a big step up for the World Number 20 and we have still seen some poor performances from him as he returned from a long injury lay-off.

The worst of those came against Richard Gasquet last week in Toronto when he won just 3 games after winning a tight first set and Tommy Haas beat him comfortably in Washington.

He has proven he likes the conditions here with the extra zip that seems to be coming off the court, but Federer is playing some immense tennis this week and has looked imperious and I think he will be good enough to get a break in each set to see himself through.

Federer does usually serve first and that could see him win through 6-3, 6-4


MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-6, - 4.96 Units (17 Units Staked)

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