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Friday 31 August 2012

US Open Day 5 Picks (August 31st)

So after months of speculating on this blog, I was not so surprised to see Andy Roddick announce that he will retire after the US Open.

Roddick has always struck me as the kind of man that wouldn't keep playing on the Tour without being competitive and he said so himself when he admitted he didn't want to just 'exist' week to week.

The immediate reaction to his retirement was one of disappointment as Roddick was one of the characters on the Tour that was not afraid to speak his mind and he was always fun to watch on the court.

But I can understand his frustrations in a season where he is no longer considered a genuine Grand Slam Winner, while he was struggling to even move on in the lesser tournaments. Losses to the likes of Steve Darcis and Jeremy Chardy on the North American hard courts would have strengthened the belief in his mind that the 'time was now' to finish his career.

It will be interesting to see where Roddick will fit in the history of tennis now we can begin to look back on his career. His one Grand Slam win at the US Open back in 2003 puts him with the elite to have played this sport, but his three losses at Finals in Wimbledon to Roger Federer will be the lasting legacy in my opinion.

He was so close to picking up that Wimbledon title in 2009 as he played a huge match before losing it 16-14 in the final set and he will always be associated with Federer having lost 4 Grand Slam Finals to the Swiss man.

However, the American public will have fond memories of a player that led the Davis Cup success of 2007 and the man who followed the great American players of the past and he remains the last American (male) to win a Grand Slam title.

Personally I am going to miss watching him play and I'll label him as being one of the more interesting players of the last decade. He was unfortunate not to win more than the one Grand Slam, but Roddick achieved plenty in his career and he will be missed on the Tour.


Yesterday I made three picks from Day 4 and was fortunate to see all three come off as winners making the first four days here very successful. I have made five outright picks ahead of the tournament and all five are still in the draw thanks to Angelique Kerber's win over Venus Williams last night.

Today I will play three more matches as I hope to build on the week so far.


Ernests Gulbis - 4.5 games v Steve Johnson: Ernests Gulbis came back from two sets down to beat Tommy Haas in the First Round, but he has had a couple of days to recover from that and I expect he is going to win this match against Steve Johnson.

Johnson was a winner over fellow American Rajeev Ram in the First Round and he did win a Challenger on the hard courts at Aptos a couple of weeks ago, but losses to the likes of Benjamin Becker and Igor Sijsling during this North American hard court swing do not inspire confidence.

The one real concern is that Gulbis is so up and down with his performances that you don't always know what you are going to get. Two of the last three seasons has seen the Latvian finish with a losing record on the Tour, but he is 14-16 this season and has a real chance to end with a winning record this time around.

However, the hard courts have generally seen Gulbis play his best tennis and he should be too strong in this match as long as he hasn't spent himself emotionally from the match against Haas.


Janko Tipsarevic - 5.5 games v Brian Baker: The Brian Baker story has taken a detour over the last couple of months since Wimbledon as the American lost five of six matches since playing at SW19 before coming through the First Round against Jan Hajek.

Even the players that Baker has lost to in recent weeks have not exactly been a whose who list from the world of tennis and Janko Tipsarevic is a clear step up from those players.

Tipsy was very close to being knocked out in the First Round, but he was one of a number of players that recovered from a 2-0 deficit in sets to win through in five.

That match will give the Serb a boost while the staggered First Round here at the US Open will have given Tipsarevic enough recovery time ahead of this match.

I believe Tipsarevic will be a little too consistent for Baker in this one and I do expect him to come through in much simpler fashion than he did in the First Round. With the open third section of the Men's draw, the top 10 player will feel he can take advantage and I'll take him to cover the spread at odds against.


Andy Roddick - 2.5 games v Bernard Tomic: As we all know, this is potentially Andy Roddick's final match as a professional, but I think he will be a little too experienced for Bernard Tomic and will be able to extend his time a little more.

I don't know how long Roddick has been thinking of retirement, although it is clear from some of his peer's reactions that he had been thinking about it for some time. Now that he has made his decision, Roddick might just feel a little 'free' and I can see him turn back the clock and beat one of the younger generation that will look to fill his void on the Tour.

Tomic will look to grind out the win, but he doesn't have any really big shots, at least not consistently, that will see him blow Roddick off the court. That means the American will get his chances and the fans will make it a raucous atmosphere that he should thrive in.

While the retirement call has surprised people, we have seen American players cause surprises in their final tournaments here at Flushing Meadows. Even though Pete Sampras didn't call his retirement, his last tournament saw win the title here in New York, while Andre Agassi beat Marcos Baghdatis in his final tournament in a memorable match.

This could go four or five, but I am of the belief that Roddick extends his professional career for at least one more match.


MY PICKS: Ernests Gulbis - 4.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Janko Tipsarevic - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Roddick - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)

US Open Update: 7-3, + 7.32 Units (18 Units Staked)

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