US Open Day 13 Picks (September 8th)

I haven't made picks from the US Open for a couple of days as I had some outrights that meant I didn't want to double dip and that has turned out to be the right decision all in all. David Ferrer managed to come through the third quarter after a titanic battle with Janko Tipsarevic, while Serena Williams is in the Final of the Women's tournament.

It wasn't all good news as Roger Federer exited to Tomas Berdych at the Quarter Final stage and it is going to be my worst result at a Grand Slam tournament in 2012. You have to love Berdych too- I have kept him onside in every Slam this year, only for him to disappoint once too often that I ignored him this time... His best performance of the year!

We have now reached 'Super Saturday' which means both Men's Semi Finals and the Women's Final will be played today, although I still don't think it is fair on the second Men's Semi as the winner gets less time to recover than the winner of the first Semi. That is the case in every Grand Slam, but none of the others expect a player to play the Final the next day and that is where the issue arises.

However, that is not going to be resolved until the tournament next year so the players have to deal with the hand given to them today.


Tomas Berdych-Andy Murray Under 41.5 Games: My first pick is going to be the under total games in the Tomas Berdych-Andy Murray Semi Final which will be going on at 4pm today (British time).

A lot of people will be calling how close this match could be and I tend to agree to a certain extent as I am not 100% sure which of these players is going to come through. Tomas Berdych has a strong record against Andy Murray which includes winning their only battle at Slam level back in the French Open 2010 and he has won 4 of their last 5 matches against one another.

However, I like the under for the total games as a four set match today is unlikely to go over this total and there is every chance that this match will be completed, one way or the other, in four or less sets.

The layers clearly fancy tie-breakers and tight sets, but only 3 of the 17 sets they have completed have needed a tie-break to separate them, while only another 2 have got to 5-5.

2 tie-breakers would be a killer unless there is a straight sets winner, but I wouldn't be surprised if the winning players comes through 6-4, 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 which would finish under 41.5 games by 0.5 games.


Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v David Ferrer: I really took some time before making this pick, but that was mainly down to the amount of respect I have for David Ferrer and what he does on a tennis court year in and year out.

He has taken full advantage of Rafael Nadal's absence in this tournament and will also be leading Spain in their Davis Cup Semi Final next week against the United States, but this may be a step too far, even for him.

Novak Djokovic has the mix of power and consistency that should cause Ferrer plenty of problems and I am unsure how much the Spaniard will have left in the tank after the emotional and physical battle in the Quarter Final against Janko Tipsarevic.

Ferrer doesn't have the 'get out of jail' serve and will have to earn every point, something that is bound to tell at one point with a 30 year old.

The Spaniard has now lost 10 sets in a row against Djokovic and while there are a few tight sets that could have gone his way, there are a number of 6-3, 6-2, 6-1 sets in favour of the World Number 2 and defending Champion and I think he will prove too strong again.

I won't be surprised to see the match start off close, but eventually Djokovic prevailing 7-6, 6-2, 6-3.


Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: It must be strange for the World Number 1, Victoria Azarenka, to come into a match as the complete underdog, but that is the case as she faces her nemesis Serena Williams who has a 9-1 head to head record against her.

Azarenka also came through the tougher Semi Final yesterday and everything here is pointing to a Serena win.

It was the same situation last season as Serena faced Sam Stosur in the Final, but she came unglued on that occasion and I think that will inspire her to better things this time around.

The spread looks big, but Serena has covered it against Azarenka in 4 of their previous 5 meetings going back to Toronto last season and Williams has too much in her game for Azarenka.

I am expecting Williams to win in straight sets and I also believe she is good enough to earn a couple of breaks of serve in one of the sets which should leave her in the position to cover the games.


MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych-Andy Murray Under 41.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (3 Units)

US Open Update: 12-15, - 2.94 Units (50 Units Staked)