US Open Day 6 Picks (September 1st)

The first week of this tournament has been going along swimmingly for the picks, both the outright and the daily ones, so I am pretty happy all in all.

However, I have seen how quick things can turnaround so am avoiding patting myself on the back and trying to concentrate as we complete the Third Round matches in the Women's tournament and beginning the Third Round of the Men's event.


Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: This is a big spread to cover against a talented player like Fernando Verdasco, but Roger Federer has looked very good in his first couple of Rounds and I think he is going to put in another top performance against an opponent he will respect and not take lightly.

Verdasco is not the same player as he was back in 2009 when he had his break out season on the Tour, and he does have the tendency to throw away sets and that is where I think Federer will make hay.

The World Number 1 has been serving very effectively going back to Cincinnati and he will exert a lot of pressure on Verdasco and I think that will eventually be too much for the Spaniard.

The first set could be close, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Federer rolling in straight sets, 6-4, 6-1, 6-4


Sam Querrey v Tomas Berdych: I know Tomas Berdych has come through his first couple of matches here without losing a set, but he has given his opponents some chances and I don't think his form warrants him to be a big favourite in this match.

Sam Querrey had an injury filled 2011, but he has been playing well in 2012 as he moves back up the Rankings, including winning the event in Los Angeles and Semi Final appearances in Washington and Winston Salem.

You have to remember that it was Berdych that ended Querrey's interest in Winston Salem last week, but he had previously been an early loser in tournaments at Wimbledon, the Olympics, Cincinnati and Toronto.

There is every chance we could see a couple of tie-breakers in this one and I think the American is worth backing for a very small interest.


Roberta Vinci - 2.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: Both of these players have dropped one set in the previous two Rounds of the tournament, but I like the Italian's chances to progress through to the Fourth Round as she has dominated recent meetings with Dominika Cibulkova.

Vinci has won the last three matches against Cibulkova and has only dropped one set in that time and she should be full of confidence now she is one win away from matching her total from the whole of the 2011 season.

She also won the tournament in Dallas last week to build that confidence and her 17-8 record on the hard courts this season is impressive.

I don't want to under-estimate Cibulkova who is a real fighter on the court, but she hasn't been as consistent as Vinci this season and I wouldn't be too surprised if she goes down in straight sets in this one.


Ekaterina Makarova + 6.5 games v Serena Williams: I have backed Serena Williams in the main draw to win this tournament, but I think Ekaterina Makarova is being under-estimated to at least make life a little difficult for the American.

Serena will come out firing in this contest after being beaten by Makarova in the Australian Open earlier this season and her interview when mentioning that after her Second Round win is my biggest concern as Williams can be unplayable when fully locked in in a match.

However, Makarova has enough tools to keep plugging away in the match and, even if she loses in the end, I think the Russian will make sure Serena knows she has been in a match.


MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 8.5 games @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Querrey @ 3.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Roberta Vinci - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ekaterina Makarova + 6.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

US Open Update: 9-4, + 9.16 Units (24 Units Staked)