ATP World Tour Finals Day 3 Picks (November 7th 2012)

Yesterday proved to be a solid day for the picks as both came up trumps after Roger Federer beat Janko Tipsarevic with a lot more room to spare and David Ferrer then followed that up with an impressive win over Juan Martin Del Potro.

Both Federer and Ferrer will feel they can qualify from this Group following their wins, although Ferrer is likely going to have to win his final match in straight sets to give himself an opportunity without looking over his shoulder at what Del Potro is doing in his match.

Now we focus back to Group A:


Andy Murray v Novak Djokovic: This is a battle between the two winners from the opening day of the tournament and I think it could be another close one, but I favour Andy Murray to come through as the underdog.

The sad news is that Djokovic's father has not been well in recent weeks and that has obviously led to Djokovic being less focused and I think it will be tough for him against an opponent like Murray who is fully motivated to end the season on a high in front of his home support.

Murray had match points against Djokovic in Shanghai in their latest meeting, but it was the Serb that came up trumps leaving their season series tied at 3-3.

The matches have been close and it is very little that separates the players, but the key aspect to note is that Murray could easily have been 5-1 as he blew the match points in Shanghai and was leading 2-1 in sets in Australia before losing that Semi Final. As I said, this is likely to be another close one, but I just think that Djokovic is understandably in a tough place mentally and Murray should give you a run for your money at odds against.


Tomas Berdych - 1.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: I was very close to leaving this match alone after considering how close the Final they played against one another was in Stockholm recently, but I just think there is enough motivation for Tomas Berdych for him to win the match and put Jo-Wilfried Tsonga out of the tournament.

Tsonga is probably already looking ahead to the 2013 season when he is hoping to progress further and start giving the top players more tests than he has with consistency this season. His straight sets loss to Novak Djokovic makes qualification for the Semi Finals tough a year after he made the Final here in London.

He actually beat Berdych in the Semi Final last year, but has lost both meetings against the Czech player this season and I think it will be tough for Tsonga in the slightly slow conditions we have seen so far.

Berdych has also been in the better form of the two players and he looks like he could set up a potential 'winner takes all' clash with Novak Djokovic on Friday.


MY PICKS: Andy Murray @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals Update: 3-1, + 4.30 Units (8 Units Staked)