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Thursday 8 November 2012

ATP World Tour Finals Day 4 Picks (November 8th 2012)

The Andy Murray-Novak Djokovic match was a titanic battle as expected on Wednesday afternoon and I think Murray will feel a little aggrieved that he didn't make it through to the Semi Final with a win, although I was very impressed with the way Djokovic played in the latter two sets to get the job done.

Both of these players are well matched and the winner is only decided by one or two points either way and I think we can look forward to plenty more big matches between them over the next 12 months, perhaps even meeting one more time in this tournament.


The one element of the scheduling of this tournament that must gripe with the fans that bought the tickets is the fact that the 'best' players have been put on the day session, while the evening session has the 'other' match, especially when it comes to the singles matches.

The night sessions have actually been sold out for some time now unless you are willing to pay the glorified tout service provided by Viagogo... The day sessions haven't been sold unless you are talking about the weekend matches, which is understandable with work being a priority for a lot of folks in London.

However, Andy Murray has been scheduled for both day sessions so far this week as has Roger Federer and it is clear that the organisers are just trying to ensure all their sessions sell well, and not leaving it to chance. Even both 'winners' matches in the second of the Group games have been placed in the day session spot and I don't think I would be too impressed if I had purchased the evening sessions as you would have expected the big guns to be playing.

I'm not saying that the evening session viewers haven't been entertained- I just don't think people bought their tickets in the belief that the likes of Murray and Federer would not be scheduled to play at 'prime time'.


The picks went 1-1 again yesterday after Murray fell short in knocking off Djokovic, but Tomas Berdych won his match against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and managed to cover the handicap. That keeps  the profit strong for the week so far, although my outright pick on Murray is under a bit of pressure as he needs to beat Tsonga on Friday and hope Djokovic can beat Berdych, else there are a lot of permutations to go through.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v David Ferrer: What can you say about this match up but Roger Federer owns David Ferrer with wins in all 14 previous meetings and only dropping 3 sets in all those matches.

I really appreciate Ferrer and he was being remarkably candid when suggesting that Federer is just better in most aspects and that is why he has failed to put a mark on him in their meetings. He has also admitted that is suffering from a little bit of fatigue and that could show up at some point, especially as he can afford to 'rest' in this match and concentrate on beating Janko Tipsarevic to book his place in the last four.

Federer already looked imperious against a tired looking Tipsarevic in the first game of the Group and would put himself in a very strong position if he can win this match in straight sets. He has beaten Ferrer in each of the last two seasons here in London without dropping a set and being fairly comfortable in those matches.

I have a feeling this won't be much different and I'll look for the World Number 2 to come through in a straight-forward 6-3, 6-4 win.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Janko Tipsarevic: I am not even sure if Janko Tipsarevic will take the court for this one, although it is commendable that he has been speaking about 'owing' the fans and wanting to get out there and give them what they have paid for.

His time, however, may be coming to an end in London and I think this is a very tough match up for him against Juan Martin Del Potro who has beaten him on all 3 previous occasions they have played one another and has never dropped a set to the Serb.

Del Potro knows he needs to win this one as quickly as possible to give himself a fighting chance of making it through to the Semi Finals and I think that his opponent is struggling far too much at the moment to really give himself a fighting chance.

Hopefully the Argentine can serve first in this one as I think it could then be a fairly routine 6-3, 6-4 win for him in this one.


MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals Update: 4-2, + 4.10 Units (12 Units Staked)

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