ATP World Tour Finals Day 5 Picks (November 9th)

Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Tomas Berdych: The final round robin matches at this tournament can be hard to read as motivations of the players can be questioned, but this is not one of those matches as neither player is through to the Semi Final just yet.

I wondered about Novak Djokovic's mentality for this tournament as he has much bigger concerns with his father's health being the foremost thing in his mind, but it clear that he is very much here to win the tournament with the way he played against Andy Murray in the second game in the Group.

That means Djokovic is the only player with 2 wins to his name, but there are some crazy permutations that could potentially see him knocked out of the tournament, although it would take a straight sets defeat to put him in trouble.

Berdych has played a couple of solid games in the tournament, but Djokovic does have his number more than most players with a 10-1 record against the big serving Czech, and 6 of those wins have come since the beginning of 2011.

If anyone saw the Berdych match with Andy Murray, they would have noticed that he did offer the British Number 1 a few chances to break serve and I think the slower conditions here will favour Djokovic to create some chances in the match too. However, he looks capable of taking those chances and I'll back him to win this with maybe a 6-4, 6-3 scoreline.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 games v Andy Murray: Talking about motivation, it is hard to guess what the motivation of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will be now that he is very close to going out of the tournament, although he would have a sneaky chance of getting through if Berdych loses the earlier match and if Tsonga can beat Andy Murray handily.

Even without massive incentive, Tsonga is an entertainer and he will be happy to see an opportunity to perform against the home player here and the lack of pressure on his shoulders may make him a very dangerous opponent for Murray in this match.

They have played some really close matches in the past, but also some easy wins for Andy Murray so I'll only have a small interest in this one. Personally, I believe that Tsonga can at least push one set very close and he would be in a very strong position if he can sneak a set.

Murray can still sometimes lose serve at inopportune times and he will have a lot more pressure on his back in this one, pressure that may see him come through a tight, tough encounter.


MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

ATP World Tour Finals Update: 5-3, + 4.10 Units (16 Units Staked)