ATP World Tour Finals Day 6 Picks (November 10th)

I do understand the need of the television companies to tell us how 'good' this round robin stage of the tournament is, but they must thing the fans are complete and utter morons with that drivel... Let's face facts for a minute- my memory isn't what it was, but how long ago was it that the round robin was trialed in the smaller ATP tournaments and quickly removed.

The bottom line is that players can effectively tank matches at certain stages and we did elements of that in both matches last night. Don't get me wrong, both favourites won easily enough, but there is no doubt that both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray had reduced energy levels in the second set of their matches one qualification to the Semi Finals was assured.

In a regular tournament, you can't decide to coast through matches if you are to get through and win a tournament so the round robin is a bit of a nonentity.

For this tournament, I accept this is the best way of using the top 8 players, but it isn't a good method that needs to be used ever again on the main tour outside of this World Tour Finals.


Juan Martin Del Potro v Roger Federer: After Roger Federer beat David Ferrer in straight sets and Juan Martin Del Potro did the same against David Ferrer, it meant the World Number 2 had booked his Semi Final place and now it is a matter of whether he would prefer playing Novak Djokovic or Andy Murray.

Federer does have a chance of 'picking' his opponent as a defeat to Juan Martin Del Potro will mean Federer finishes second in the Group, while a win sees him knock out the Argentine if David Ferrer beats Janko Tipsarevic.

It might not be in Federer's hands anyway as Del Potro has certainly got closer and closer to beating him all season before eventually cracking that in Basle last month.

Del Potro should have beaten Federer at both the French Open and the London Olympics also and I think his motivation is much higher than Federer's in this particular match, even if the World Number 2 would likely want to see the Argentine out of the tournament as he is a major threat.

However, it may also work for Federer who certainly feels he has the beating of Djokovic, perhaps even more than Murray, and would be rewarded with a Semi Final against the World Number 1 if he fails to win this match. With all this added intrigue in mind, backing the Argenitne at big odds looks the call.


David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Janko Tipsarevic: This could be a meaningless match if Juan Martin Del Potro has beaten Roger Federer earlier in the day, but David Ferrer will still want to maintain some form ahead of the Davis Cup Final next weekend against the Czech Republic.

Janko Tipsarevic has just been happy to get through an hour on court in each match he has played and he has looked far short of his best form as an illness and a long season has taken its toll on the Serb.

Ferrer has had the better of the matches they have played and I just think he will be a little too strong here and will likely get through with a 6-4, 6-2 win, although I am only having a small interest as it is potentially a meaningless match.


MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro @ 3.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
David Ferrer - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

ATP World Tour Finals Update: 6-4, + 5.30 Units (19 Units Staked)