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Tuesday 11 June 2013

Tennis Picks 2013 (June 11th)

It was fun to see the grass courts being used again as I managed to catch some of the live tennis during my lunch break and also once I returned home in the evening. However, it is a real shame that the weather hasn't turned up so far after a cold Monday in London opened the Queens tournament.

The rain, at least, stayed away as the matches scheduled for the day all managed to get on court, although the forecast for the next few days, both in London and Halle doesn't bode well for those tournaments. It's the same situation for the WTA tournament being run in Birmingham, but so far so good for the schedules.

I do always laugh at how these tournaments in Britain are reported- anyone who knows tennis will be well aware of the fact that British Men's tennis has been in the doldrums for some time barring the odd Andy Murray or Tim Henman. So this is the time of the season when you will see more British players receive Wild Cards into events.

With that in mind, any kind of performance will be blown out of proportion and usually followed by 'Brit Watch' at Wimbledon- yesterday, it was reported that Dan Evans 'secures shock win' in his First Round win over Guido Pella.

In terms of Rankings, it was a surprise of course- but he was actually favoured by all of the layers and he was playing an opponent that had never played on a grass court before and clearly has been almost exclusively successful on the clay courts. Therefore, I think to describe his win as a 'shock' is poor reporting to be honest as most people expected he will be too good for Pella and that happened to be the case.

Personally I think a little bit of research would have told the author of that BBC article that it was a good win for Evans, but it was far from a 'shock' and should be written for the casual reader for what it is. It was a good win for someone ranked as low as Evans is, but there was no shock and he did what was expected of him.

On the other hand, James Ward was the big underdog in his match with Ivan Dodig and it was a match he should have won. He lost in three tough tie-break sets, but had chances to serve out the second and third sets and will be disappointed that he didn't complete what would have been a real surprise result.


Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Lleyton Hewitt: Both of these players came through some struggles to book their place in the Second Round, but I think Grigor Dimitrov definitely has the more upside of the two and that is why I believe he will beat the former Wimbledon Champion.

There are just too many unforced errors coming from the racquet of Lleyton Hewitt these days, while his first serve percentage has to improve markedly to give him a real chance in this match.

On the other hand, Dimitrov had to break Dudi Sela's serve to stay in the match yesterday, but he reached the Semi Final here last season and I think Hewitt's game is one that he can get the better of. I wouldn't be totally surprised if this ended up going into a third set decider or if Dimitrov wins two tight sets, but I do expect the Bulgarian to cover this spread.


Nicolas Mahut - 2.5 games v Rhyne Williams: It's not everyday that I would take someone to cover the games when they are ranked as low as Nicolas Mahut is, but the grass is the one surface that certainly favours his game more than other surfaces these days.

Mahut is a former Finalist at Queens and his serve-volley game will definitely give Rhyne Williams a number of problems, especially considering this is the American's second game on grass in his short career.

Williams was beaten in the First Round of a Challenger tournament on the grass in Nottingham last week, but I expect Mahut's veteran savvy to be too much for him here too despite having the surface under his feet. I think the Frenchman will find a way to cause enough problems on the Williams serve by attacking the net and forcing the younger man to find a way to consistently pass him.

That should lead to a 64, 76 win for Mahut in this one and a chance to play Andy Murray on Centre Court for the second year in succession.


Benoit Paire - 3.5 games v Denis Kudla: Benoit Paire is certainly beginning to make his mark on the ATP Tour and I think he can back up his win from the First Round by taking out the young American Denis Kudla in the Second Round.

Paire has been pegged as someone who can definitely reach the top 20 of the World Rankings, while L'Equipe's recent prediction of the top ten in 2018 included Paire in the list. He is only 5 wins short of reaching the same number of wins as he had in the whole of last season, and already proved he can be comfortable on the grass courts by reaching the Semi Final of an event in Holland last season.

This should be an opportunity for Paire to move through to the Third Round here despite the impressive win that Kudla had yesterday. However, that win came against a predominantly clay court player and this is a test at least a couple of levels higher for Kudla who was comfortably beaten in the First Round in a Nottingham Challenger last week.

I think the Frenchman should be able to find a way to grab a break advantage in each set in this one and I am expecting Paire to move through 75 63.


MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.16 Units (4 Units Staked)

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