Wimbledon Day 5 Picks 2013 (June 28th)

After three and a half days of clear weather at SW19, finally we saw rain at Wimbledon which ended the Thursday schedule early. It wasn't too bad for the organisers with most of the matches already through to keep the tournament on schedule, although there could be more rain to follow on Friday and that is going to lead to problems.

There is every chance that Andy Murray could earn his place in the Fourth Round on Friday, while other players could still be looking to complete their Second Round matches if the bad weather hits that some are expecting. With Centre Court being the only one where play is guaranteed, the likes of David Ferrer will be hoping there is a window big enough for him to complete his Second Round match that is scheduled first up on Court One.

The Third Round of the tournament will begin on Friday and these are the picks for the matches to be played today:


Nicolas Almagro v Jerzy Janowicz: The bottom half of the draw has opened up, especially for the winner of this match as I certainly could see them going all the way to a Grand Slam Semi Final.

Both Nicolas Almagro and Jerzy Janowicz will feel they are more than capable of reaching their first Grand Slam Semi Final, particularly if they can get this match out of the way and both will approach this in a very similar way.

There is every chance this match is played indoors as it is the second match due on Centre Court and that will only aid both players that will look to dominate proceedings behind a big serve and big forehand. The backhand wing is definitely one area that Nicolas Almagro has the edge and looking at both players games, I am a little surprised that the Spaniard is set as the underdog in this one.

Jerzy Janowicz is highly aggressive on court and he does look to intimidate his opponents, but he is still a little inconsistent as shown by a defeat to Mirza Basic in Halle a couple of weeks ago. He has also been a little fortunate in the draw and although he has the perfect game for a grass court, I still think he is learning his trade at this level as shown by the fact that he had to qualify for Wimbledon last year.

I could be made to look foolish once this match is completed, but I think Almagro, who beat Janowicz in straight sets at the Australian Open earlier this year, should have been a clear favourite of around 1.66 in this one so backing him as the underdog makes a lot of sense.


Jurgen Melzer v Sergiy Stakhovsky: Another underdog that I am going to be backing in the Third Round is Jurgen Melzer who could take advantage of this section of the draw now that Roger Federer is out of the tournament.

Sergiy Stakhovsky surprised the seven time Wimbledon Champion on Wednesday and may find it tough to back that win up against Melzer here. Stakhovsky hasn't had much success on the grass courts leading into Wimbledon as he was beaten early at Queens and failed to qualify for Eastbourne and this has all the makings of an 'After the Lord Mayor's Show' for Stakhovsky.

I also feel that he is going to struggle to replicate the level of play he produced against Federer in the last Round, while Melzer is certainly capable on the grass courts.

I can't help thinking that if this was a First Round match, Melzer would be no better than 1.61 to win this one and the layers have over-reacted by making the Austrian an underdog here.


Benoit Paire - 4.5 games v Lukasz Kubot: Benoit Paire is an improving player on the ATP Tour and he brings in a 4-0 head to head record against Lukasz Kubot to the table in this one.

Kubot has performed well at Wimbledon in the past so this won't be easy, but Paire is definitely on the way up the Rankings while his Polish opponent is on the way down and I think he can get through in a similar manner to when these two players met in Paris in the French Open last month.

I can see the first two sets possibly being shared in this one, but I also think that Paire will begin to find more success against the Kubot serve as the match progresses and could easily take a set either 61 or 62 and that should give him a strong chance to cover this spread.


MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Jurgen Melzer @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units) 64, 30 To Be Completed
David Ferrer - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 7-4, + 6.08 Units (22 Units Staked, + 27.64% Yield)