Tennis Outright Picks 2013 (July 15-21)

The first week after the end of a Grand Slam is usually a quiet week in the tennis world as most of the general public have turned their attention to something other than the tournaments that feature few of the top players in the world.

While many people who watch tennis regularly will recognise some of the Winners and Finalists this week, for a casual viewer the likes of Fabio Fognini and Carlos Berlocq being at the business end of tournaments would be an unfamiliar sight.

To be fair, both Fognini and Berlocq could be considered surprises to a lot of folks, although both are in the midst of their best season on the main Tour in their career. Fognini in particular has always had a lot of upside, but he is finally putting more consistency together and could be someone to keep an eye on, although the serve is weakness that will very likely prevent him becoming much more than a top 20 player.


One piece of news that was of interest this week was the appointment of Jimmy Connors as the new coach for Maria Sharapova. The Russian clearly must feel that she need something a little different to become a regular Grand Slam winner, but the choice of Connors is an interesting one. He did do some sterling work with Andy Roddick for the short time they were together and actually revived his fellow American's career at a time when it seemed Roddick was drifting a little bit on the Tour and was no longer a threat at Grand Slam level.

It will be interesting to see how Connors and Sharapova work together, although they have spent time together previously which ended with the latter winning the Australian Open. We will likely see the fruits of their labour early next season with little time until the US Open, but it is definitely a good appointment as far as I am concerned.


This week we will have a surprise participant in the ATP Hamburg event, but it is also strange to see Serena Williams playing in Bastad where the second seeded player is 30 in the World Rankings. Of course, Williams is an absolute huge favourite to add that title to her collection, but I can't figure out why she is playing another clay court event ahead of the big tournament in Stanford and the two Premier events in Canada and Cincinnati that will be taking place within the next month.


It was a decent week for the picks last time out, but it was a real shame that Lleyton Hewitt couldn't complete the win in Newport. He was up a set and serving for the match in the second set but suddenly became very nervous on his own serve and was broken in back to back service games.

Even in the third set, it was Hewitt that earned the first break of serve against Nicolas Mahut, but he couldn't save a break point while the Frenchman was on the floor and was broken in back to back service games for a second time in the match.

However, even with that setback and the three outright picks not being very helpful, it was still a good week for the picks and the results are below my picks for the tournaments to take place this week/


ATP Bogota
You can always tell the quality of a tournament by looking at the Rankings of the seeded players and it says a lot that 4th seeded player here, Eduoard Roger-Vasselin, is down at 71 in the World Rankings.

Unsurprisingly with that in mind, the outright market is top heavy at this first time tournament in Bogota since being purchased from Los Angeles. Both Janko Tipsarevic and Kevin Anderson are the two favourites to win this tournament and I think the latter is the one that could make hay.

Anderson struggled after Wimbledon last year, but he has had a decent season this time around and the draw favours him more than the Number 1 seed Tipsarevic in my opinion.

The South African Number 2 seed should be a little too good for home favourite Santiago Giraldo and the likes of Adrian Mannarino and Igor Sijsling who are potential Semi Final opponents.

On the other hand, Tipsarevic has not been in great form in 2013 and has dropped out of the top ten in the World Rankings. He also has an awkward match against Xavier Malisse that could block his path to the Final.

In my opinion, there isn't a great deal of threat here for the top two seeds so it would be a surprise if the winner didn't come from one of them. Kevin Anderson has reached five Finals in his career and four of those have come on the hard courts- he has also won his only two titles on hard courts and I will have a small interest in him this week.


ATP Hamburg
I believe this is the last ATP 500 event taking place on the clay courts this season and there is at least one big surprise entrant in the field in Hamburg this week Roger Federer took a Wild Card into the event as he is clearly wanting to improve his current World Number 5 Ranking and he is the top seed and the clear favourite to win a tournament where he enjoyed plenty of success during the years it was a Masters event.

However, he looks remarkably short to me even in a field where no other player from the top 10 is taking part. At the moment, Federer looks extremely vulnerable against a lot of players he would be expected to breeze past and the lack of Finals, let alone titles, has to be a concern for him.

Usually in a field that has gathered in Germany, Federer would be odds on to win, yet even being slightly odds against doesn't appeal to me. The main reason for my own lack of excitement surrounding his chances is the fact that Ernests Gulbis is a potential Third Round opponent.

Gulbis loves to raise his game against the best players on the Tour and all three of his previous matches against Federer have gone the distance and, more importantly, he will have the belief he can beat the former World Number 1 on this surface having split two matches on clay in the past.

That match alone would concern me as a Federer backer in the outright market, although I would expect him to see off most of the other competition in the top half of the draw including Feliciano Lopez, Fernando Verdasco, Jerzy Janowicq and Tommy Robredo.


With some potential doubts over the favourite, I will look to the loaded bottom half of the draw for a potential Winner and Finalist.

The two Finalists from last season, Juan Monaco and Tommy Haas and it is the latter that I believe could return to that game. Haas was a surprise loser in the Quarter Final last week in Stuttgart and certainly doesn't have an easy path through to the Final with dangers lurking from the first match, most likely against Victor Hanescu.

Players like Fabio Fognini, Andreas Seppi, Albert Ramos and Marcel Granollers could all cause problems, but I expect Haas can come through this section to a Semi Final berth. Fognini played really well in Stuttgart last week, but winning his first title on the ATP Tour could mean partying for the Italian and he may not be in the best shape in Hamburg for another long week, while the other three players don't look as strong as Haas.

My concern for Haas would be that the clay courts are not his favourite surface, but reaching the Final here last season and winning in Munich will make him believe he can go deep again. And in the Semi Final he could face an opponent that has a lot of tennis in their legs with dangers lurking around every corner in that section of the draw.

Last year's winner, Juan Monaco, will have his supporters, but he could face the dangerous Gael Monfils in his first match, while the likes of Nicolas Almagro and Mikhail Youzhny will certainly feel they can go deep this week. I have doubts about all four of their players and their ability to beat Haas this week and so I'll have a small interest in the home crowd getting a German Finalist for the second year in a row.


MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson @ 2.75 Coral (1 Unit)
Tommy Haas @ 9.00 Stan James (1 Unit E/W)


Tennis Outright Picks (July 8-14): 0-3, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Tennis Daily Picks (July 8-14): 17-7, + 17.94 Units (46 Units Staked, + 39% Yield)

Season 2013: + 35.22 Units (809.5 Units Staked, + 4.35% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units