Tennis Picks 2013 (July 11th)

It seems we are currently at the point of the calm before the storm as many would have climbed down from Wimbledon, which feels very much in the past now, and we haven't really started the move towards the US Open. That does mean there aren't a lot of stories developing in tennis at the moment, except for the general movement of the tournaments towards their scheduled conclusions.


So far so good this week for the picks as more winners were identified on Wednesday and keeps the weekly total in a very healthy position. With Gael Monfils and Lleyton Hewitt both reaching Quarter Finals, the outright picks are also in decent shape, although both are likely going to face a couple of really tough tests if they to lift their respective titles.

Let's see if the good run continues as we move on to Thursday.


Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: It was a little strange to me that a German player would choose to play in Sweden rather than enter the Stuttgart and Hamburg tournaments coming up, but Jan-Lennard Struff clearly made the right decision as he beat Sergiy Stakhovsky in the First Round.

However, his level of opponent will have increased tremendously in this one as he faces Fernando Verdasco, a player that backed up his Quarter Final appearance with a First Round win here. Verdasco will have big ambitions to be seeded in time for the US Open at the end of next month and I expect his motivation to be high for this match.

The conditions could be an equaliser if they are as windy as Wednesday, but Verdasco's usual clay court nous should be a little too much for the young German in this one. I also think the weight of his shot could be a surprise for Struff, while the serve of the latter could be exposed by the heavy groundstrokes.

2013 started off badly for Verdasco, but he seems to have built a little bit of confidence over the last two/three months and I do think he will find a double break in one set to come through 75, 62.


Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: If someone had told me that these two Spaniards had met each other five times in the past, I would have expected Nicolas Almagro to have the winning record. However, a lot of those meetings took place over 5 years ago and it is Guillermo Garcia-Lopez that holds the 4-1 lead.

The last of those matches was actually played last year at the US Open and that was where Almagro won his first match against his compatriot and I think he has a strong chance to make it two in a row in their little series.

It has been a disappointing season, compared with last year, for Almagro so far but he has enjoyed returning to the clay courts in Bastad and was the Finalist here last season. The clay should favour his game in this match up as I do believe he will have an 'easier' time holding serve on a surface where a lot of break points are the norm.

While Garcia-Lopez did reach the Final in Bucharest on the clay,that has been a rare high point for him this season and he had actually lost three in a row on the surface before his win over Jan Hajek in the First Round.

There were some windy conditions in Bastad on Wednesday and that could be an equaliser in the match up, but I do believe Almagro will have more chances to break serve in this one and that could lead to a 62, 75 win for the higher Ranked Spanish player.


Tommy Haas - 2.5 games v Ernests Gulbis: This is the fifth meeting between these players within the last twelve months and they are locked at 2-2 going into this one. I would suggest that both Tommy Haas and Ernests Gulbis would prefer the faster surfaces where their aggressive games could cause a lot of damage, but both have performed admirably on the clay courts too and this should be a very good match.

Tommy Haas is the Number 1 seed here and the favourite to win his second title on home soil having picked up the trophy in Munich earlier this season (beating Gulbis along the way). He will look to get on the front foot in this match and can certainly match the 'cheap' points that Gulbis will also get on serve.

The difference between the players could be the fact that Haas is playing pretty solid tennis at the moment, while Gulbis still fluctuates too much within matches to really feel you know what you're going to get with him. I can just see the Latvian dropping concentration at a crucial time, possibly in a first set tie-break, before Haas finds a way to extract enough errors from the Gulbis game to move through 76, 63.


Michael Russell + 3.5 games v Igor Sijsling: The tournament in Newport has a strange scheduling with two of the four Quarter Finals played today and the other two played tomorrow.

The first of the Quarter Finals looks more competitive to me than the layers seem to think and I do believe that Michael Russell can keep this close, even if he doesn't have enough in the tank to book a place in the Semi Finals.

Russell should have plenty of confidence as well as plenty of tennis in his legs having won a Challenger ahead of this tournament in Newport, and the American has played well enough to cause Igor Sijsling a few problems.

The Dutchman made hard work  of the second set against Sugita yesterday and another drop in concentration would likely see Russell steal one set. As long as Russell doesn't lose belief in his game and tiredness doesn't creep up on him, this could be a three set match that sees the American at least stay within the spread.


MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Michael Russell + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: + 10.64 Units (18 Units Staked, + 59.11% Yield)