Tennis Picks 2013 (July 18th)

We finally got the confirmation we were looking for when Roger Federer took to the court on Wednesday- he has indeed changed his racquet, despite all the success he had with his old one.

Federer has decided to do something that Pete Sampras admitted he wished he had done- he has upgraded his racquet and has decided to move to a bigger head. This will increase his power and give Federer the chance to get in line with the other three top men's players on the Tour, although it will be interesting to see how his one-handed backhand holds up with a bigger racquet.

It is further proof that Federer is not convinced about his game after a pretty poor 2013 by his high standards and the early defeat at Wimbledon must have inspired a change he was perhaps considering anyway. I am guessing this was also the reason he decided to take a Wild Card in Hamburg and Gstaad so he can get a feel for the racquet ahead of the three big tournaments that will be played in August/September.

I can understand why Federer would decide to make the change, but the next couple of months will tell us all we need to know about his chances of getting back to the top of the game and having the chance to add to his Grand Slam tally.


It was a mixed bag when it came to the picks yesterday as they went 2-2, although I was a touch disappointed that Fernando Verdasco didn't cover after opening up a 40 lead in the final set and then double faulting his next service game away (three double faults in one game). Still, the picks are in the positive as we go into the fourth day of the week and that is at least something to hold on to.

Hopefully it will be a little more productive on Thursday with the following picks from the matches on offer.


Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: I backed Nicolas Almagro in an identical spot last week against the same opponent and he managed to come through the hard way in that match after dropping the opening set.

It was a poor start from Almagro as Guillermo Garcia-Lopez got off to a fast start, but the rest of the match was mostly dominated by the former.

Both players will know what to expect from the other, but the Almagro serve could once again prove to be the difference as he is capable of setting up easy points on that shot, either through unreturned serves or with short replies.

He should have learned from the slow start last week and while we will see chances for both men to break serve, I think Almagro will come through in a more routine manner this week compared with last week in Bastad.


Tommy Haas - 3.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: Carlos Berlocq is certainly enjoying a period of very strong form after winning his first title in Bastad last week and following that up with a couple of wins here in Hamburg.

However, he has to be feeling some effects from the amount of tennis he has had to play in the last couple of weeks, particularly as Berlocq has needed three sets to win both matches played this week.

He will be facing Tommy Haas, a player who sneaked through the last Round after a three set battle of his own. I just feel Haas can serve pretty big on his day and can be tough to break, while Berlocq has to earn every point he wins.

At some point the huge amount of tennis that Berlocq will catch up with him, while this is a player that has been beaten by players like Paul-Henri Mathieu, Daniel Gimeno-Traver and Sergiy Stakhovsky on the surface this season. Berlocq will likely make it a tough first set, but I expect Haas to just put a little too much pressure on him and record a 64, 63 win.


Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Jan Hajek: I am sure Roger Federer is glad that he doesn't have to face Ernests Gulbis in this Third Round match and this is a much more winnable match for him.

With a new racquet in his hand, it is tough to know what Federer's intentions are this week- of course he wants to win the tournament, but is he in 'testing' mode and just trying to get comfortable with his new weapon of choice?

Either way, you have to think if he performs as he did in the last two sets against Daniel Brands that he will be too good for Jan Hajek, a player that has mainly achieved his successes on the Challenger Tour.

I expect Federer will be able to come through with a 61, 64 win.


Vasek Pospisil - 2.5 games v James Duckworth: The ATP tournament in Bogota is not exactly loaded with top players so the likes of Vasek Pospisil and James Duckworth can pick up some big Ranking points during the course of the week.

Both of these players have the chance to go very deep in the tournament this week and both have had success on the hard court at Challenger level. However, of the two, Vasek Pospisil seems to have the more upside to his game with a big serve going to be well aided by the conditions here in Bogota.

James Duckworth was a surprise winner in the First Round so his confidence has to be in a good place, but the Canadian's serve may be the difference between the two in this match and I see Pospisil going through to the Quarter Final with a 76, 64 win under his belt.


MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-5, + 1.80 Units (22 Units Staked, + 8.18% Yield)