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Wednesday 24 July 2013

Tennis Picks 2013 (July 24th)

The tennis will continue coming thick and fast this week as we move into the middle of the tournaments that are being played throughout the Tours.

It is time for Second Round action on Wednesday and hopefully the weather will hold out to keep the tournaments on schedule.


Mikhail Youzhny v Pablo Andujar: After some of the abuse that Pablo Andujar has been receiving on the social network sites, I was glad to see the Spaniard end his six match losing run that had begun in Nice back in May.

However, I don't believe Andujar will be able to back that win up against Mikhail Youzhny, a player that plays every match as hard as he can and one who can certainly mentally tough out a win against someone whose confidence may be a little low.

Andujar is certainly a very capable player on the clay courts with two Semi Finals to his name this season, but he is also a player that can struggle to get out of bad runs of form and even the win over Victor Crivoi hasn't convinced me that he has turned a corner mentally.

These two met at the French Open and ended with a fairly comfortably win for Youzhny and I think he can back that up with another win over Andujar here.


Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: Feliciano Lopez had missed a large chunk of the Tour earlier this season, but he is certainly making up for lost time in the last two months- in that time, Lopez has reached the Third Round at both the French Open and Wimbledon, while going on long winning runs at Queens and Eastbourne where he won the title.

While the clay courts are not his best surface, Lopez is capable of beating players when he serves well and he has been playing some good tennis to keep confidence high.

He is up against an opponent in Andrey Kuznetsov that won a lot of titles at Challenger level on the clay courts, but one who is still trying to find the consistency to turn that form to the main ATP events.

Kuznetsov gutted out a tough First Round win over Sergiy Stakhovsky and this is clearly a surface he feels comfortable on, but Lopez could put some scoreboard pressure on him if he serves well. The Russian's serve can also be attacked and I think that is why Lopez will find a way to win this one in straight sets with a break more in either set.


Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: This is potentially the best season that Stanislas Wawrinka has ever had on the ATP Tour and he will be looking to make an impact in Gstaad, although this is a venue where he has struggled in the past.

Wawrinka will be playing his first match since being beaten in the First Round at Wimbledon, but he has been very strong on the clay courts this season and could make his return to the Tour with a big performance.

The Swiss Number 2 has one title on the clay this season, while he has reached the Final of a couple of other tournaments and was also a Quarter Finalist at Roland Garros. He has been serving much more effectively this season, while he is a lot more consistent off the ground and that is making Wawrinka a much more dangerous player on the slower surfaces.

Meeting Gimeno-Traver looks a nice way to get going in the tournament, especially as the Spaniard only just snapped a six match losing run with his win in the First Round.

Gimeno-Traver can be a tough out on his day, but his serve can be vulnerable and I definitely think Wawrinka will get chances to break serve on a number of occasions. If Wawrinka serves well, he should be able to come through with a 75, 63 win.


Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Blaz Kavcic: I didn't get to watch the highlights from Umag yesterday so I have no idea what happened to Florian Mayer after the first set against Blaz Kavcic, but there was a significant drop off of form from that moment.

It might be a little more difficult for Kavcic in this Second Round match against Gael Monfils, a player that has the ability to scramble and force his opponent to play one more shot. That ability can certainly make life easier for the Frenchman when it comes to playing opponents that are not in the top 20 in the World Rankings as it is their lack of real consistency that prevents them moving up the Rankings.

Against a player outside of the top 100, making them play one more shot can be the ultimate difference in the match and I expect Monfils to make Kavcic earn as many points as he can.

Monfils will need to serve better than he did yesterday if he is to clear this spread, but he has a decent first serve that should set him up to win the points a little more comfortably and I expect the former top 10 player to come through, after a few breaks of serve, 64, 64.


Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Thiemo De Bakker: At what point will all this tennis catch up with Fabio Fognini? The Italian has won back to back tournaments to move into the top 20 in the World Rankings and confidence has got to be sky high as he finally produces consistent tennis and wins titles (his first two at the main ATP level).

He is playing some special tennis at the moment and even the big-serving Thiemo De Bakker could be put under pressure by Fognini's return of serve.

Fognini is returning very effectively at the moment, mixing aggression with depth, and that is going to give the Dutchman a few problems as his own consistency off the ground does not match up well against Fognini at the moment.

As I said, there is bound to come a moment when it is one match too far for Fognini, but he is playing with the confidence that Juan Martin Del Potro displayed in 2008 when he went on a long winning run during the Summer months (winning four straight tournaments) and I think Fognini can continue that for at least one more match and he still looks the man to beat this week in Umag.


MY PICKS: Mikhail Youzhny @ 1.73 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
James Blake @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units) Rain Delay postponed match until Wednesday

Weekly Update: 3-4, - 2.44 Units (14 Units Staked, - 17.43% Yield)

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