Tennis Picks 2013 (July 25th)

It was almost a perfect day for the picks on Wednesday as five of the six came through and the only one that didn't was Stanislas Wawrinka to cover the spread despite getting into a 75, 40 position in the match.

That puts the picks into the positive for the week, while the two outright picks from this week will be opening their tournaments on Thursday, which is remarkably late for a tournament that began on Monday. With a little luck, the momentum from Wednesday will hopefully ride through for the rest of the week and these are the picks for Thursday.


Marcel Granollers v Federico Delbonis: I have been impressed with the way that Federico Delbonis has performed in the last ten days and he was just one point away, on three occasions, from picking up the title at the ATP 500 event in Hamburg last week. He beat Roger Federer during his run to the Final, but it will be interesting to see if he can maintain the form that has helped him on this run of form.

It won't be easy against Marcel Granollers who is comfortable, as any Spaniard is, on the clay courts and one who has picked up a couple of wins in the last couple of weeks that may rebuild a confidence that had to be a little shot after four straight losses.

Both players will be relying on a first serve to set up the easier points in this contest and whoever can do that best will likely win the match. However, I do think Delbonis has had a lot of tennis under his legs in the last few days and I also feel he could be a touch overrated due to his accomplishments last week.

While Delbonis has the making of a very good clay courter, defeats to the likes of Somdev Devvarman, Dustin Brown, Joao Souza and Aljaz Bedene on the surface this season suggests he is not quite there yet.

Granollers has generally lost to only the best players on the clay this season and I believe he can win this pick 'em contest, even if it takes three sets to do so.


Victor Hanescu v Roberto Bautista-Agut: This is virtually another pick 'em contest, but I am surprised to see Victor Hanescu set as the underdog in this one.

Both players have enjoyed successes on the clay courts at the Challenger level in the last twelve months so it is clear that both are comfortable with the red dirt underneath their feet.

Why do I think Hanescu can win this match? I believe Hanescu has the better first serve which will lead to more opportunities to win cheap points and Roberto Bautista-Agut can be a little more erratic of the two when it comes to groundstrokes.

Neither player can really claim to have had sustained success on the clay courts at ATP level, although both have winning records. Hanescu has a couple of Quarter Finals and a Semi Final to his name, while Bautista-Agut has a Semi Final too.

I just feel the reasons I mentioned will give the Romanian a slight edge in what could be yet another three setter, but this time the underdog in the close market will come through in my opinion.


Robin Haase + 2.5 games v Janko Tipsarevic: One of the more disappointing players on the Tour this season is Janko Tipsarevic who has dropped out of the top 10 and is now struggling to hold on to a place in the top 20.

After back to back 53 win seasons on the Tour, the Serb is only 14-14 this season and confidence can't be high. Personally, I would question who helps schedule his tournaments too as Tipsarevic is coming from a hard court event in Colombia, meaning he has gone from clay to grass to hard and now back to clay ahead of the two Masters tournaments in North America.

All of that travelling crossing time zones and having to get accustomed to yet another surface change can't be ideal preparation, while he is playing an opponent that would likely call clay his favourite surface.

Robin Haase isn't the most trustworthy player on the Tour simply because his play can be so erratic and there is every chance he drops a set with a couple of breaks of serve being given up. However, he at least has spent the last few weeks on the surface and I expect he will find a way to steal a set, which could be enough to at least get within the spread even if he loses the match.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Daniel Brands: A brand new racquet, but another tournament disappointment for Roger Federer was the story of Hamburg last week, but the former World Number 1 is very comfortable with where his game is at the moment.

It is becoming a real risk in backing Federer to cover spreads as his serve is certainly not as effective as it was in his prime and he is a little more erratic off the ground with too many unforced errors.

However, he saw the Daniel Brands game last week when he had to come from a set down to move through that match and I believe seeing what the German can do will certainly help Federer overcome him this time around with a little more ease.

There is no doubt that Brands' style can make him a very dangerous opponent as he proved when taking Rafael Nadal to four sets at Roland Garros. However, Brands can also be a little mentally weak at times and crumble in matches when the chips are down and I expect Federer to find a way to come through with a 64, 63 win.


Tommy Robredo - 3.5 games v Victor Troicki: After three defeats in a row, Tommy Robredo will be glad to have got through his First Round match against Jan Hajek and I think he has a strong chance to move through to the Quarter Final with a win over Victor Troicki.

I do think Robredo is the better clay court player of the two and I think he can outlast Troicki more often than not in this match.

The Serb had a poor 2012 season, but he is definitely having a better year this time around and he has had a few solid runs on the clay courts this season, including reaching a number of Quarter Finals and also the Fourth Round in Paris.

However, I think Troicki will find it more difficult against a player that is willing to stay out there all day and his consistency could be tested. The second serve Troicki possesses can be attacked and that is where I think Robredo will find the success to lead to a 64, 64 win.


Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: Umag has been a good venue for Alexandr Dolgopolov as a former winner here and also reaching the Semi Final last year. While he is an inconsistent player that has all the shots needed to become a real force in the game, I expect Dolgopolov will be a touch too strong for Aljaz Bedene.

Bedene did come through a First Round match earlier this week, but I don't like players making a number of switches in surface in a short period and that is what the Slovakian has done with a return from Bogota where he played on the hard courts last week.

However, Bedene has had success on the clay courts in the past, especially at the level below the main ATP tournaments so this will be a tough test for Dolgopolov. The Ukrainian will need to serve well if he is to come through and I am hoping some of his erratic play is left in the locker room in this one.

Dolgopolov can be aggressive on return and I think he can pull away after a tight first set and record a 76, 63 win.


Denis Istomin - 2.5 games v Yen-Hsun Lu: I picked Denis Istomin to come through fairly comfortably in the First Round against Lukas Lacko and I believe he will be able to come through against Yen-Hsun Lu in this Second Round contest.

I think it would be wrong to underestimate Lu, a player that has a decent serve and can play a lot of flashy winners and make it tough to go against him. He won a Challenger in Beijing a couple of weeks ago on the hard courts  and he has always had the majority of his success on the hard courts.

I expect both players to go through periods of this match where they are holding serve comfortably, but I also think Istomin has a little more toughness about him on the hard courts. I think one set is very likely to be decided on a tie-break, but Istomin will likely have the more chances to break serve of the two players.

Istomin may end up sneaking one of those chances and helping himself to a place in the Quarter Final after a 76, 64 win.


Santiago Giraldo v Michael Russell: Michael Russell toughed out a First Round win over the returning Mardy Fish in rain delayed contest that was concluded last night, but I think he will find it a little too hard to back that up against Santiago Giraldo.

I still remember the way Giraldo announced himself on the Tour with a dismantling of Juan Carlos Ferrero on the clay courts of Rome as he overpowered the Spaniard with a range of big winners, but Giraldo hasn't really reached those levels again.

However, he still has a pretty big game and will be a hard task for Russell as long as he isn't making a raft of unforced errors. Mighty Mike also has a decent serve and a game that is tailored to the hard courts and he continues to find success at Challenger level on the surface.

Unfortunately, it is becoming more difficult for Russell to convert that form to the main ATP level and I think that will be the case again in this Second Round match. The first set could very much be decided on a tie-break and I think if Giraldo can win that, he should be able to come through with a little more ease in the second.


Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 games v Stefanie Voegele: It can be hard to get a feel of what a player is feeling when they have been off the Tour for a little under a month, but that is the case for Dominika Cibulkova in this Second Round match.

I do think Cibulkova has a decent game and she has a lot more power than you would expect from a girl that isn't one of the taller players on Tour. She is a solid hard court player as she is able to hit through her opponents, although consistency can be a problem and has also prevented Cibulkova from actually breaking the top 10 and maintaining a spot there.

Stafanie Voegele has become more settled on the main WTA Tour this season, but she hasn't had a great time on the hard courts despite the win in the First Round. Her serve can be attacked and that is where I believe Cibulkova will have the success to come through and also cover this spread.


MY PICKS: Marcel Granollers @ 1,85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Victor Hanescu @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Robin Haase + 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Robredo - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denis Istomin - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-5, + 4.52 Units (26 Units Staked, + 17.38% Yield)