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Tuesday 30 July 2013

Tennis Picks 2013 (July 30th)

It was almost a terrible opening day of the week for the picks, but fortunately the two from the tournaments in North America both came in to at least restrict the poor start.

You can still see the outright picks I have made from the tournaments in Kitzbuhel and Washington here.


Victor Hanescu - 2.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: It has been a pretty solid month for the veteran Victor Hanescu and I believe he can go a little further here in Kitzbuhel as he takes on Aljaz Bedene in the First Round.

With a decent first serve, Hanescu should certainly find the conditions here in Austria to his liking as the altitude of the court will give his serve a little more pop. He should be able to find a way to put Aljaz Bedene under pressure with the serve, while he also has some heavy groundstrokes that can certainly push his younger opponent onto the back foot.

It has to be said that Bedene had a decent week last time out in Umag where he shocked Alexandr Dolgopolov, but a lot of that could be down to the latter being a little off his game. Bedene also has a decent serve and when he is on his game, he can be very tough to play.

However, he is also someone that can suddenly put together a number of poor games and I think a steady performance from Hanescu will help the Romanian win this one 76, 64.


Robin Haase - 3.5 games v Guillaume Rufin: After a long tough week on the Tour, it can be difficult to guess the state of someone's physical well-being, particularly when they have reached the Final of an event and are travelling to the next stop on the Tour.

That is the case for both Robin Haase and Guillaume Rufin who played in Finals on Sunday- Haase came up short in Gstaad, while Rufin won a Challenger on the clay courts in Germany.

It seems this match could come down to who has recovered from their exertions last week the best, although Haase will be very comfortable in the surroundings considering he has won the title here in both of the last two years since it returned to the calendar. Haase was in a positive state of mind on Sunday despite his defeat in the Final in Switzerland and if he serves and returns as well as he did last week, for the most part, he will be tough to beat here this year.

His opponent can certainly play some very effective tennis as Rufin has a good serve and likes being very aggressive, attacking the net and trying to take the ball on. However, his consistency can be an issue and that is why he is Ranked just inside the top 100 after moving back into this position thanks to his win last week.

The Frenchman is just 4-10 in the last three seasons on the main Tour when it comes to clay court events and I think Haase is going to find a way to crack him here. I believe solid serving will help Haase come through 64, 64 in this one as long as he isn't too shattered from some of the matches he played last week.


Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 games v Somdev Devvarman: This has definitely been a down season for the talented, but wildly inconsistent, Alexandr Dolgopolov, but a return to Washington where he won the title last season should surely inspire him here.

He was beaten in his first match in Umag last week, but it seemed like Dolgopolov may not have been feeling well in that match against Aljaz Bedene so it will be interesting to see how has taken to the travel across the Atlantic. However, Dolgopolov has had a few days to get ready for the tournament here and faces a good opponent in the Second Round.

Somdev Devvarman is at a false position outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings as injuries have affected that Ranking over the last couple of years. Even so, the Indian player, who will be well used to the North American hard courts as he studied in the States for a number of years, has a game that will give Dolgopolov a chance to use all of his variations of shot.

As long as the Ukrainian isn't feeling the affects of the issue from last week, he should be a little too good for Devvarman in this one and come through 64, 63.


James Duckworth - 2.5 games v Yuichi Sugita: These two players haven't had a lot of experience at the main ATP level of tournaments and there are only four places between them in the World Rankings.

I believe the lower Ranked player, James Duckworth, has the edge in this First Round match as he has been winning the slightly higher quality of matches. The Australian has a decent serve that will be given a boost by the conditions in Washington and I think he can use that serve to help him build the foundation to success in this match.

Duckworth is against an opponent that can certainly make life tough as he can ensure he can get one more ball into play and force the errors from Duckworth's game. Sugita has a serve that is attackable, but he can be aggressive on court by getting to the net and putting away volleys so this certainly won't be a cakewalk for the Australian.

This has a real chance of going into a three set match, but I like Duckworth to find a way to come through 75, 46, 63.


Lukas Lacko v Marcos Baghdatis: I don't know whether fatherhood has changed Marcos Baghdatis into a less competitive figure on the court now that his priorities in life have changed, but this has been a terrible season for the former Australian Open Finalist.

In fairness, Baghdatis hasn't reached the heights of 2006 and I don't think he made the best of the talent he clearly possessed. He hasn't won a match, outside of one Davis Cup match, since February and is coming into this tournament off the back of seven straight matches.

This one looks like another tough match for the Cypriot against Lukas Lacko, even though the latter hasn't exactly pulled up too many trees on the Tour this season. Lacko is another player that has shown flashes of what he is capable of, but has struggled for consistency, although his confidence should be in a better place than Baghdatis with a few wins in recent weeks, even at Challenger level.

If this match is close, the number of losses in recent months will very likely have a mental affect on Baghdatis and this is a hard pattern to break. Lukas Lacko may become the latest player to take advantage of a player whose Ranking in slipping on a weekly basis.


Urszula Radwanska - 2.5 games v Marina Erakovic: The last couple of seasons has seen the younger Radwanska sister begin to make a more consistent move on the WTA Tour and I think she can take out the qualifier Marina Erakovic in the First Round.

Radwanska made it through to the Quarter Final in Stanford last week and was only stopped in her path by the eventual winner Dominika Cibulkova, while she has won 31 matches on the hard courts in the last eighteen months.

There have been a couple of disappointing early losses for Radwanska this season, but generally she is beginning to beat the players she is expected to and that should stand her in good stead to move into the upper echelons in the Women's game.

She is playing Marina Erakovic who has not had a winning record on the hard courts in the last few season, at main Tour level, but Erakovic is certainly capable of playing some inspired tennis and is going to be in good nick after winning three matches to get into the main draw. Erakovic will give Radwanska some problems, but she has lost to players that wouldn't be favoured to beat the Pole on the hard courts and I expect Radwanska to find a 63, 46, 63 win.



MY PICKS: Victor Hanescu - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Robin Haase - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet 365 (2 Units)
James Duckworth - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Lukas Lacko @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Urszula Radwanska - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Unibet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 3.50% Yield)

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