Wimbledon Day 11 Picks 2013- Men's Semi Finals (July 5th)

I'll be out for most of Thursday celebrating my own birthday (not the United States' birthday) so I have started working on the Men's Semi Finals before I know who will be playing in the Women's Final on Saturday.

I know we didn't see the Quarter Final lineup that we expected after the upsets of the first week of the tournament, but the Semi Final has a much more familiar feel for the fans. Outside of Jerzy Janowicz, the other three players that are going to take centre stage on Friday would all have been well supported to make the final four and I am expecting plenty of fascinating tennis.


Andy Murray win 3-1 v Jerzy Janowicz: Not many people will know a lot about the big serving Polish player Jerzy Janowicz, but he looks like a potential Grand Slam danger in the coming years although how he copes with the pressure will be key to this match.

Unlike the likes of Ivo Karlovic, who also possessed a massive serve, Janowicz is capable of backing that up with variation in his shots. He has heavy groundstrokes, but decent touch too and he has a lot more dimensions to his game than solely a serve that can reach the high 130 mph mark.

However, he is playing against one of the best returners in the men's game in the form of Andy Murray who will also be backed by a home crowd and I think the World Number 2 will be able to create enough chances to win this match. Even with that in mind, it is hard to ignore the fact that Janowicz will be able to get through some service games with ease and that will allow him to hit out on the Murray serve, particularly if he sees a lot of second serves.

Tie-breakers against opponents who can serve as well as Janowicz are really tough to predict and that is why I do think the Polish player will find a way to take a set off Murray in this one. He will be confident having beaten Murray at the Paris Masters last October, but nerves could play a part and we have seen his last two opponents create chances on the Janowicz serve.

Janowicz is a big, intimidating player, and the grass suits his game... But he is playing in front of a crowd that will virtually all be pro-Murray in his first Grand Slam Semi Final and I just feel Murray will come through 63, 67, 63, 64.


I don't usually do this, but I also think it would make sense backing Jerzy Janowicz to hit at least 15 aces in the match. The court is playing pretty fast at Wimbledon thanks to the lack of rain and temperatures are going to be high on Friday to make the ball move that much more in this contest.

When these two met in Paris on the indoor courts last October, Janowicz hit 22 aces in three sets against Murray, while he is leading the tournament in that category and is averaging almost 19 aces per match.

Everyone knows what a good returner Murray is, but there will be times the ball fizzes past him and there won't be a lot to do. I am expecting at least four sets in this one, while Ivo Karlovic hit 17 against Murray in the Second Round here last season and I think the Pole is worth backing in this category.


Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Juan Martin Del Potro: Something has to give in this Semi Final as neither player has dropped a set in the tournament so far and this looks to be a fascinating match to open proceedings on Centre Court.

Novak Djokovic has looked very much a man on a missing in SW19 and apart from a complete lack of intensity to open set two against Tomas Berdych, he has looked very comfortable so far in the tournament. He meets Juan Martin Del Potro who has overcome a knee issue to reach his first Semi Final here and is coming off a very impressive performance when he dispatched David Ferrer in straight sets.

I can see Del Potro having his supporters, but Djokovic is playing at a very high level and I think it will be tough for the Argentine to continue playing at the level he did against Ferrer. He did manage to do that in 2009 to go all the way at the US Open, but the World Number 1 looks a little too strong as far as I am concerned.

I do think Del Potro can steal a set in this one with the way he has been serving and the fact that he did beat Djokovic here in the Bronze Medal match last summer, while he also beat him in three sets at Indian Wells earlier this year. But when it is all said and done, I think Djokovic will come through 63, 67, 63, 64.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray win 3-1 @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Jerzy Janowicz Over 14.5 Aces @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)

Wimbledon Update: 21-12, + 18.22 Units (64 Units Staked, + 28.47% Yield)