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Wednesday 3 July 2013

Wimbledon Day 9 Picks 2013- Men's Quarter Finals (July 3rd)

It was a little wet at Wimbledon on Tuesday and there could be more of the same on Wednesday which will make life a little more difficult for the two matches that are going to be played on Court One.

That includes Novak Djokovic v Tomas Berdych and I think the World Number 1 will be a touch disappointed that he is not getting the 'advantage' of playing on Centre Court where the roof can at least be used in case of rain. The schedule makers are trying to prevent any advantage by having the potential Semi Final opponents starting their matches at the same time, but if it rains, it could be a waiting game for Djokovic and Berdych while David Ferrer and Juan Martin Del Potro will be able to play their match under the roof.


Speaking about Ferrer and Del Potro, anyone that followed the outright picks at the beginning of the tournament would now have the Spaniard at odds against in this match compared with the odds on quotes being provided by the layers. I still think Ferrer will get the better of Del Potro even though both players are carrying injuries that could play a real part in the match.

Ferrer is suffering with an ankle injury while Del Potro almost pulled out of the tournament on Monday with a knee issue, but both are expected to take the court on Wednesday. I do still like Ferrer to win this game as I think he is going to be able to keep Del Potro moving, something that Andreas Seppi failed to do in the last Round.

I didn't see the full match, but the highlights suggested the big Argentine is not quite moving freely on the knee and I expect Ferrer to prolong the stay on the court and eventually wear down Del Potro in four sets.


The picks went 2-1 in the Women's Quarter Finals and that keeps the positive vibes going from a tournament that has progressed very well so far. However, I am keen to keep the run going for the last few days and am hopeful that it can.


Andy Murray win 3-1 v Fernando Verdasco: I have been thinking about this match since it was set and I can understand why Andy Murray is the big favourite as the grass courts are certainly not the best for Fernando Verdasco.

Even with that in mind, Verdasco can't be underestimated as he has reached his first Quarter Final at Wimbledon and has to be confident in his game. His lefty serve will cause Murray some problems and there is no doubt that the Spaniard can still play at a very high level, although he doesn't sustain that like he did in 2009.

The weakest area of the Andy Murray game is the second serve and I expect Verdasco will try and attack that as much as possible and he has a chance of hitting enough winners to steal a set, the first that Murray would have to drop in this tournament.

I know Murray will look a lot better than Verdasco at times as the latter can be guilty of being very erratic and making a lot of errors, but he might take the extra step that Youzhny just failed to in the last Round and that is force the World Number 2 to work a little harder for his place in the Semi Final.


Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Tomas Berdych: The expected rain in SW19 may have these players waiting around for a little longer than anticipated before they can get their match onto Court One, while possible delays mid-match are a worry as it clearly can change momentum.

However, that same rain will make the conditions a little damper and colder and that will play into Novak Djokovic's hands in my opinion. Tomas Berdych would have wanted the court to play faster so that his big serve and groundstrokes could penetrate the Djokovic defence, but I think it will be much more difficult for him.

To be honest, Djokovic has played like a man on a mission at Wimbledon having come so close at the French Open and he has a very strong record against Berdych. He did lose to the Czech player the last time they met, but I have no idea how that happened as the World Number 1 dominated the first two sets to the point that he served for the match before collapsing.

Berdych will also take confidence from his straight sets win over Djokovic at Wimbledon in 2010, but the latter is much improved player from that meeting three years ago. It won't all go Djokovic's way in this one, but I think he will come out with a 63 76 64 win.


Lukasz Kubot + 5.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: The all-Polish Quarter Final could be a nervy affair both both of these men who have a lot of respect for one another but are also going to play with the pressure of trying to reach their first Grand Slam Semi Final.

Jerzy Janowicz has been set as a big favourite in this match, but I do feel that is underestimating the chances of Lukasz Kubot stealing a set, something that would put him in a strong position to cover this spread.

Kubot is comfortable on the grass courts and he could put pressure on Janowicz by attacking the net, while the younger player in this match admitted that he got nervous in his Fourth Round win over Jurgen Melzer.

I do think eventually the power and charisma of Janowicz will see him come through, but it could be after a 36, 75, 76, 62 match.


MY PICKS: Andy Murray Win 3-1 @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lukasz Kubot + 5.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 19-9, + 19.42 Units (55 Units Staked, + 35.31% Yield)

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