Tennis Outright Picks Cincinnati 2013 (August 12-18)

Back to back Masters tournaments means the Tour is moving from Canada into the United States and the annual stop in Cincinnati as the roads start leading to the US Open.

This is the last time we will see some of the best names on both Tours before Flushing Meadows as most of them will take a week off after this tournament to get their preparations completed for the final Grand Slam of the season. The results in Canada last week were surprising at times, but Cincinnati generally has a much more settled feel to it as players are just a little more focused, especially the biggest names, as they look to take some momentum in the important month ahead.


It was the second poor week when it came to the tennis picks in a row last time out as I couldn't avoid the shocks that had taken place all week in Canada. The biggest disappointment was Novak Djokovic's defeat to Rafael Nadal in the Semi Final- I have no idea where his double fault issues came from in that match as that cost him the first set in a match where Nadal completely overplayed from where I had estimated his game.

However, the errors made by Djokovic at a lot of crucial times, plus a poorer return of serve than I am used to has to be a a factor. Even with that in mind, there is some real pressure being placed on Djokovic's shoulders going into the final Grand Slam of the season as there is a slight, very slight, suggestion that he is struggling to come through in big matches at the moment.

Losing to Nadal at the French Open and Andy Murray at Wimbledon are not terrible losses in the grand scheme of things, but I just feel the World Number 1 needs to win one of those matches sooner rather than later just to keep himself in a good place mentally.


Men's Tournament
It is quite weird to see that only two active players have won the Masters tournament in Cincinnati and both Roger Federer and Andy Murray would like to have a big week under their belt ahead of the US Open and I do think one of them will add their name to the winner's list once again.

Of the two, it is Andy Murray who I think can come out of the bottom half of the draw and perhaps pick up the title next Sunday and once again underline why he is set as the favourite to win the title for the second time in a row at Flushing Meadows.

The draw this week is slightly more comfortable for Murray, although he will likely have to get some revenge on Ernests Gulbis in the Second Round after being beaten by the talented Latvian last week in Montreal. If the World Number 2 can get past Gulbis, I would guess Murray would be a strong favourite over Fabio Fognini and Tomas Berdych who he could face in the next two Rounds.

Both Fognini and Berdych have to overcome some question marks as to how competitive they can be on the hard courts against the very best players on the Tour. Berdych is a very dangerous player of the two, but he needs to serve a lot better than he has been recently and the match up could certainly pose some problems for him as Murray can extract errors from his game.

There are some big names that could potentially face Murray in the Semi Final with the likes of Roger Federer, Tommy Haas and Rafael Nadal in the third quarter of the draw, but I have doubts about all three players this week.

Federer is coming in off a couple of really poor showings on the clay courts and is using a new racquet, while I don't know how much his back issue is giving him trouble at the moment. Tommy Haas retired last week in Montreal, while Rafael Nadal went deep in Montreal and back to back Masters events on the hard courts is not something his body is going to be used to since he returned from injury.

Andy Murray does look like a player that is very happy with where he is with his game, even after the early exit last week, and I do think he can go all the way this week.


However, I also want to keep Novak Djokovic in my staking plan as he looks to make history by becoming the first player to win all of the Masters tournaments on the calendar. He came close to doing that last season when he was beaten in the Final here by Roger Federer and I am not so concerned that the World Number 1 had a long week in Montreal as he has shown he is capable of putting back back tournaments together on the hard courts.

He really couldn't have asked for a much better draw through to the Semi Final and I don't foresee too many problems for Djokovic up to that point. The likes of Vasek Pospisil and Milos Raonic had a strong week in their home Masters last week, but tiredness and a couple of tough draws could put pay to their chances. If Richard Gasquet gets to the Quarter Final, I would expect Djokovic to knock him out fairly comfortably too.

A potential Semi Final against David Ferrer, Jerzy Janowicz or Juan Martin Del Potro could certainly cause some problems for Djokovic, although again I would suggest there are enough doubts to think the World Number 1 is not able to come through.

Janowicz and Del Potro haven't been at full strength in the last week and while both can keep themselves in a match with their serve, Djokovic is one of the best returners of all time and will certainly make enough balls to force both players to earn a win. Del Potro has been struggling with a back injury and he may already have one eye on getting to full fitness before the US Open, and David Ferrer has a bad match up against Djokovic.

The draw has certainly been kind to Djokovic this week so I have to keep him on board again.


MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic @ 2.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andy Murray @ 4.50 Bet 365 (1 Unit)


Tennis Outright Picks (August 5-11): 0-2, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Tennis Daily Picks (August 5-11): 12-12, - 3.88 Units (45 Units Staked, - 8.62% Yield)

Season 2013: + 13.10 Units (1030.5 Units Staked, + 1.28% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units