Tennis Picks 2013 (August 2nd)

The first few days of this week saw a few of the picks just lacking the luck all picks require to end in the winning enclose, but Thursday proved to be the day when a lot of things went wrong at the same time to ruin the week so far.

The only saving grace so far is that Juan Monaco and Tommy Haas are both still in the draw as the outright picks and hopefully the last couple of days of this week are going to prove to have lady luck back on their side.

EDIT: I am stunned with how poor Thursday turned out to be as almost every pick had been in a winning position before suddenly collapsing into a heap: I made 6 picks on Thursday and four of them were in a strong position after the first stanzas of the match before falling away.

For example, Juan Monaco won the first set 62 before missing chances in the final set to get the 63 required only to break to love for 64... Fernando Verdasco won the first set 64 and made a couple of big mistakes to get broken in set two at 54 and then broke in the opening game of the third and still couldn't win the match... Radek Stepanek was a set and a break up and then suddenly collapsed to lose the match.

After having the luck earlier this week, that was a real kick in the gut for Thursday considering all of those picks ended on the wrong side and it doesn't feel great. As I said before, the only saving grace is both outright picks are still in their draws, although I don't think either are favourites to win the tournaments.


Marcel Granollers v Robin Haase: These two players had a really close match in Gstaad last week that was decided by a final set tie-break, but I believe Marcel Granollers may be able to gain a measure of revenge for his loss at the hands of Robin Haase.

Kitzbuhel has been a very good venue for Haase as he continues his winning run here since the tournament returned to the calendar and he is just two matches away from winning his third title in a row. His serve is given added bite with the altitude helping it zip through the court and confidence is high having reached the Final in Gstaad last week.

However, I do think Marcel Granollers can get the better of him as his serve is also aided by the conditions and I believe the Spaniard is a little more consistent with his backhand of the two players. That is the shot that both players would consider to be their weakest one and so the player that can limit their mistakes behind that stroke is most likely to come through the match.

I wouldn't at all be surprised if we see another three set match between these players, but I do think Granollers can end Haase's run here as long as he can take advantage of the break points that come his way. I expect Granollers to try and attack Haase's backhand and force mistakes from that shot and this time I will look for the Spaniard to win the key points that lead to a change in the result from last week.


Juan Monaco - 2.5 games v Albert Montanes: These two players have played the critical points better than their opponents this week and that is the reason that Juan Monaco takes on Albert Montanes in the second Semi Final in Kitzbuhel.

I believe in Monaco a little more than Montanes in this one because I do think he is consistently better from the back of the court, although his serve can be really erratic at times and he can go through streaks of unforced errors that make life easier for his opponent.

On the other hand, Montanes has been very successful behind his first serve this week, but the percentage is not really good enough and he has been fortunate to come through the last couple of Rounds here and it does feel his luck will run out in this one.

The Spaniard is a very competent clay court player, but he is up against another and I do think Monaco will get the better of the baseline rallies more often than not. There could be a fair few breaks of serve in this one, although Montanes has saved a lot of those points this week, and I think Monaco will be able to extract enough unforced errors to come through to the Final.

It could be a really close call for a while, but I think Monaco wins 63, 75.


Dmitry Tursunov v Marinko Matosevic: There was a major drift against Dmitry Tursunov in his match against Radek Stepanek, but he showed tremendous heart to come from a set and a break down to beat the Czech player. I believe he has the game to back that up against Marinko Matosevic, although the Australian has been surprising opponents all week.

Matosevic has a big game and has beaten James Blake, Nikolay Davydenko and Milos Raonic to reach this Quarter Final and all of those wins came as the underdog. To build even more confidence, he has won all of those matches without dropping a set and this run follows his run to the Semi Final in Los Angeles last year so the North American hard courts are to Matosevic's liking.

He has a big serve and that will certainly aid Matosevic on the hard courts and Tursonov's serve won't really intimidate him after he beat Raonic yesterday.

The Russian will have to serve well here if he is to win the match, but he has been playing well enough this week to think he can stop the surprising run that Matosevic has been on, although it may take three sets to do so.


Marcos Baghdatis + 2.5 games v John Isner: John Isner won in Atlanta last week and he has moved through fairly comfortably to the Quarter Final here in Washington, the event where he announced himself to the Tour a few years ago. He also has won all four previous matches against Marcos Baghdatis yet I think taking the games on the Cypriot could be the right call.

They haven't played on the Tour since the US Open in 2011, but the last two matches between the players have been close and Isner, while winning, has rarely won comfortably in the last two weeks. His serve is always going to be a weapon on this surface, but Baghdatis has snapped his losing run on the Tour and has the aggression to make Isner work behind it.

Baghdatis has also served pretty effectively this week and I think Isner will also find it tough to break him too and tie-breaks could be in the offing in this one. If Baghdatis can also string together a couple of solid points on the Isner serve, I think he may just sneak a set and all of that makes me believe that 2.5 games is too many for him to be given.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games v Kevin Anderson: Another player who has a 4-0 lead in their head to head going into the Quarter Final is Juan Martin Del Potro over Kevin Anderson and my fears that he may not be motivated for a full week have been unfounded.

He even went through double-duty on Thursday as he beat Ryan Harrison and later Bernard Tomic, seeing off both youngsters without dropping a set and barely being troubled by the opposition.

A couple of the previous matches between these players have been close, but looking at the stats of the entire matches shows that the server, as expected, is the dominant player. However, it is Del Potro who has certainly got his teeth a little more into the Anderson service games and the big South African will not get away with as low a first serve percentage as he had last week in Atlanta, although he has been better this week.

I just feel that Del Potro, as long as he serves well, will certainly have the better opportunities to break serve and I can see him taking advantage of Anderson, who has played a lot of tennis in the last two weeks, and coming through 64 64.


Sorana Cirstea v Alize Cornet: Sorana Cirstea hasn't really moved her career on from the point in which she surprised Sam Stosur at the Australian Open and there is a case of untapped potential when you think about her game.

She is aggressive and she can certainly hit players off the court when she is feeling good, but there are a lot of inconsistent efforts from her and that has seen her remain outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings.

Cirstea will feel her aggression can see her get the better of Alize Cornet in this Quarter Final, especially as she has dominated the Frenchwoman in the last three meetings, winning all three without dropping a set.

Cornet is enjoying her best year on the Tour, but the hard courts don't always sit well with her as she is comfortable being the defender on the court and the speedier courts will make that tougher to do. I do think aggression will win the game in this one, as long as Cirstea doesn't put together too many unforced errors.


MY PICKS: Marcel Granollers @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dmitry Tursunov @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-13, - 9.64 Units (40 Units Staked, - 24.1% Yield)