Tennis Picks Cincinnati 2013 (August 12th)

It hasn't been a great year for the tennis picks, despite being in the positive, and much of the blame can be laid at the door of the outright picks.

There have been a fair few occasions that players have reached the Final/Semi Final but have fallen short and that has led to a poorer season than the previous two, although there is still two and half months left including the final Grand Slam event of the season.

The outright picks haven't been in great form this season but hopefully this week is the beginning of a change on that front and you can see my outright picks from the Cincinnati here.


Last week just wasn't a great week, but hopefully the second Masters event this summer will be a more successful week as a new game begins. There are a lot of First Round matches taking place today although there could be some rain delays on the first day of the tournament in Cincinnati- thankfully the rest of the week looks clear and I am hopeful that all the scheduled matches will be completed on Monday.


Denis Istomin - 3.5 games v Brian Baker: Brian Baker was the feel good story of last season after the former top junior player made his return to the Tour with injuries finally behind him. He had some real impacts during his time on the Tour, reaching the Final in Nice and the Fourth Round at Wimbledon.

Baker did have a drop off of form after that, but he must have entered 2013 in a positive frame of mind, one which was quickly cracked as he suffered an injury at the Australian Open that kept him out of action until last week.

It is a big ask for him to take on an in-form Denis Istomin in his first match on the main Tour in Cincinnati and I just feel the lack of tennis in recent months will be tough to overcome. Istomin has a strong serve and he can take advantage of second serves that Baker throws in during the match. With the way the Uzbekistan player has been playing in the summer, I do believe he should earn a break of serve in each set to help him win this one 64, 64 and move onto the Second Round.


Marcel Granollers - 3.5 games v Lukas Rosol: Since knocking out Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon, Lukas Rosol may be a little more well-known by tennis fans, but he hasn't really kicked on to the extent that he would have wanted since that major victory.

Granted, he has won a title on the main Tour this season and he is automatically eligible for the main draw at these Masters tournaments in North America, which was not the case a year ago, but Rosol has been in disappointing form in recent weeks and he has a losing record on Tour this season.

You would think he has the game to really make an impact on the hard courts, with a big serve that is followed by a big forehand, but he is erratic with the latter shot and his second serve has been attacked. Rosol has now lost 6 matches in a row and he only won his first set of tennis last week since Wimbledon, meaning he has lost 9 of the last 10 sets he has competed on Tour.

Now he is up against a confident Marcel Granollers who recently won the tournament in Kitzbuhel and one who beat Grigor Dimitrov last week in Montreal before finding Andy Murray a little too good. The Spaniard will need to serve well in this match if he is to make it through and he can be a little inconsistent himself at times, while not always playing the big points effectively.

However, confidence is a big thing in tennis and Granollers certainly has more of that than Rosol at the moment and I believe he wins 64, 64.


Grigor Dimitrov v Nicolas Almagro: This is a pick 'em contest that the layers cannot separate and I can understand the reasoning behind that- however, I have been feeling that Grigor Dimitrov is on the more upward curve than Nicolas Almagro who could be coming down the Rankings over the next 6-9 months.

There is no doubt that Almagro is a talented player that can certainly give most players a good run for their money on his day, but he is on course for his lowest win total on the Tour since 2009 and his defeat to Radek Stepanek last week would be a concern. It is fair to say that was his first match on the hard courts this summer as an excuse, but the errors he made and the way he failed to keep his level up to par has to be a concern.

That isn't to say that Grigor Dimitrov has been pulling up trees of late, but he did reach the Quarter Final in Washington before a surprising First Round loss in Montreal last week. The youngster is yet to make a real impact at Grand Slam level, but has had a couple of decent runs in Masters tournaments this season.

Both players have the one handed backhand which is Almagro's best shot, and I do think Almagro has the slight advantage when it comes to the serve. However, the Spaniard's form has been patchy to say the least and Dimitrov is the better returner in my opinion. He missed a number of chances against Granollers last week, but if Dimitrov can be a little more ruthless on the big points, I like him to come through against a Spaniard this week.


Fabio Fognini v Radek Stepanek: After a spectacular clay court summer, Fabio Fognini was involved in a couple of very strange matches on the hard court in Montreal last week- he competed in six sets and five of them ended 61, Fognini winning 3 and losing 2.

That shows what kind of an inconsistent and frustrating player the Italian can be at times and much of that is down to a serve that is very attackable and one his opponents can certainly grab the initiative in rallies from.

However, I do think Fognini can beat Radek Stepanek in this pick 'em First Round match as the veteran may have lost half a step coming to the net these days. Stepanek does like to get forward and put away volleys and pressure opponents to pass him, but that half step just gives them more room to get the ball past the Czech player.

Neither player has a really dominant serve so I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few breaks of serve in the match, but I do believe Fognini will come out of a three set tussle with the Second Round place booked.


Sloane Stephens win 2-0 v Petra Martic: It is always tough for the younger players on the Tour to find the consistency needed to be successful on a week by week basis and that is the situation for Sloane Stephens this season, despite being 17 in the World Rankings.

After reaching the Semi Final at the Australian Open, Stephens has been a touch over-rated by the layers and she has had more than her fair share of surprise defeats since that moment. However, this does look like a good match up for her against another young player Petra Martic.

Martic has won a couple of qualifiers to get into the main draw so will be comfortable in the conditions here in Cincinnati, but she has lost all of her hard court matches at the main Tour level. That includes a thumping by Maria Kirilenko last week in Toronto and I do feel she could find it tough to find the consistency to hit her shots against Stephens.

The American can certainly make enough balls back in court to give Martic trouble, while she also has the weight of shot that can keep Martic under pressure. Stephens will just have to keep her head together when it comes to the big points in each set and I think she can be a little too strong for Martic and move through in straight sets.


Carla Suarez Navarro - 3.5 games v Marina Erakovic: Marina Erakovic won a couple of qualifiers to get into the main draw in Cincinnati after deciding not to take part in Toronto and those wins here should give her some confidence to come through this First Round match against Carla Suarez Navarro.

However, the latter is a player that can certainly be effective enough to come through matches like this as her consistency can be a little too good for the lower Ranked players on the Tour. Her one handed backhand is a great looking shot, although the hard courts are certainly not her favoured surface.

There will be times when Erakovic is able to control this match as she does hit a heavy ball, but Suarez Navarro has the Spanish mentality of trying to grind out her opponents through sheer consistency and I expect that will prove to be the difference in the match. Like with any WTA match, I am expecting a few breaks of serve in this one, but Suarez Navarro to come through with a 75, 63 win.


Roberta Vinci - 3.5 games v Bethanie Mattek-Sands: There aren't too many more flamboyant characters on the WTA Tour than Bethanie Mattek-Sands, but I do think she will have another tough time against Roberta Vinci in this First Round match.

Mattek-Sands was a real surprise during the clay court season as she reached a Semi Final in Stuttgart and the Fourth Round at the French Open, while the American also has a hard court Final under her belt this season.

However, that Final in Kuala Lumpur aside, Mattek-Sands hasn't had the best time on the hard courts as her inconsistency can see her struggle on the surface and that is what made her runs during the clay court such a surprise. The variation that Roberta Vinci uses should underline the lack of consistency that Mattek-Sands has in her game and I think she can back up her result against her from Carlsbad last month.

Vinci hasn't been in great form over the last month, but her slice can cause some problems although she will need to serve a little better if she is to get through to the Second Round. However, the Italian has had plenty of success on the hard courts in North America over the last twelve months with Quarter Finals, Semi Finals and even a title under her belt.

As long as Vinci serves effectively, I would expect her to come through this test with a cover of the spread.


MY PICKS: Denis Istomin - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcel Granollers - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens win 2-0 @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)