Tennis Picks Cincinnati 2013 (August 13th)

The last three weeks have really seen the luck desert the picks I have made and the opening day of Cincinnati has proved to be no different.

In this period I have seen players lose Finals and Semi Finals to fall as the outright picks, amazingly had one underdog fail to cover the spread despite winning the match and seen players collapse from strong positions in the silliest of ways.

It was the case on Monday as Roberta Vinci got to match points to secure a comfortable straight sets win but failed to take those, then failed to serve out the match and lose 4 games in a row to lose the second set against Bethanie Mattek-Sands. What  should have been a 64, 63 win turned into a 64, 57, 63 win and failure to cover the spread by, you guessed it, one game.

Sloane Stephens was another who let me down despite a fairly routine win as Petra Martic played a huge second set which meant there was yet another match that somehow needed three sets to be completed. No one likes losing picks, but losing when players have put themselves in strong winning positions is just an added kick in the teeth.

It is frustrating times at the moment to say the least... Tuesday will hopefully provide a reprieve.


Tommy Haas v Kevin Anderson: Tommy Haas had to retire with an illness last week in Canada, but he has had a few days to get over that and must be feeling better as he was doing some Q's and A's with the fans yesterday.

This First Round match highlights the amount of talent there is at the Masters events and how tough it is to win the tournaments as both are top 20 players- Haas has had a very strong season, but has just fallen short a couple of times in the last month, while Kevin Anderson is just 9 wins away from surpassing his best year on the Tour.

However, Anderson is coming into this one off a couple of defeats and also had a poor summer on the North American hard courts last season. The South African has a big serve and heavy groundstrokes which makes him a very dangerous customer on the faster surfaces, but his first serve percentage has been a little low at times which is giving some opponents an opportunity against him.

Haas, taking away withdrawals and retirements, hasn't lost too many 'bad' matches this season and while this wouldn't fall into that category, I do believe he is the better player off the ground. He doesn't have a lot of points to defend in the coming weeks so a move into the top 10 is definitely within grasp for Haas and I do think he is the slightly better player.


Benoit Paire - 3.5 games v Nikolay Davydenko: One of the more over-rated players on the Tour at the moment is Benoit Paire, but I still think he is good enough to come through this First Round match against Nikolay Davydenko.

It was a good week in Montreal for Davydenko when he reached the Quarter Final before suffering with some breathing difficulties that saw him pull out of the match at 3-0 down. Unlike a few years ago, Davydenko is no longer the consistent player that could give anyone a match on his day and he fluctuates between the brilliant and the terrible on a week by week basis.

The consistency is not quite there in his game these days, while he is half a step slower than he was in 2009 and that means he isn't quite able to maintain form as he could. Benoit Paire isn't exactly the most trustworthy player on the Tour, but he has a decent serve and he should be able to create enough pressure on Davydenko's serve to earn breaks of serve.

Paire will have to serve better than he did in his loss to Marinko Matosevic last week, but I do think he can find a way to win this one.


Ernests Gulbis - 2.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: He got tight at just the wrong times last week in Montreal as Ernests Gulbis looked to move into the Semi Final in Montreal and it ended up being a three set loss for Gulbis against Milos Raonic.

However, I think Gulbis will bounce back in this one against Mikhail Youzhny, especially as the Latvian has a strong record on the North American hard courts this season- he has won one title, reached the Fourth Round in Indian Wells and then followed that with a Quarter Final run last week.

Gulbis has a big first serve and while double faults can be a problem for him, I do think he is going to be a little too tough for Youzhny. I have respect for the veteran Russian player, but the hard courts are not his favoured surface and it will be tough for him to keep Gulbis from getting ahead.

Youzhny has a decent serve, but it is one that can give up chances to see him broken and I do think Gulbis is a little more solid on that front. That should prove to be the difference in what could be a good match to watch.


Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Brian Baker: I was surprised to see Brian Baker come through his First Round match in the ease in which he did yesterday, but a lot of that was down to a poor display from Denis Istomin and I don't believe Grigor Dimitrov will be as generous in his play.

The young star of the men's game played very well against Nicolas Almagro, although he almost choked the first set away with an awful game when serving for the set. Dimitrov has a big serve which supplied him with a lot of cheap points, but his second serve needs to improve if he is to get to the top of the game as many have tipped him to.

He also will need to be a little more effective against any second serves he sees from Baker in this one as Dimitrov has a tendency to become very defensive against the short ball, which is strange as it can be the shortest ball he sees in a rally. He should also have an advantage in the fitness stakes as Baker is playing just his second tournament in nine months and has to play on back to back days to open the tournament.

The American has a lot of variation in his game and seems to relax and play the big points well as his game looks like one that shouldn't cause as many problems as it does at times. However, Dimitrov has the bigger game in more aspects and I expect he will see off Baker in this one with his added fitness helping to cover the spread.


Philipp Kohlschreiber + 4.5 games v Roger Federer: It has been the toughest period in Roger Federer's professional life since before he won his first Grand Slam title back in 2003 as he has suffered not one, not two, but three embarrassing defeats over the last six weeks.

2013 has been a rough year for the most part for Federer as he has won one title, but the Second Round exit at Wimbledon to Sergiy Stakhovsky was a new low- he then followed that up with another defeat to a player Ranked outside the top 100 in Hamburg before meekly losing in Switzerland to Daniel Brands.

Federer comes to Cincinnati to defend his crown and pick up much needed confidence ahead of the US Open. He has been dealing with a back injury, which has apparently reacted favourably to rest and treatment, while he will also be bringing a new racquet along with him.

The former World Number 1 certainly looks ripe for an upset, but Philipp Kohlschreiber is mentally suspect and I don't think he will believe he can win the match. While lesser players have beaten Federer in recent weeks, Kohlschreiber has lost all 7 previous matches against the Swiss man and has barely made those matches competitive.

However, the German has a decent first serve and I do think he can push Federer as long as he doesn't lose belief early and can at least earn some respect from his more illustrious opponent. At this stage of the season and with the way Federer has been playing, 4.5 games looks a lot to be giving to anyone and I'll look for Kohlschreiber to keep this competitive.


Mona Barthel - 2.5 games v Lucie Safarova: There have been times over the last eighteen months when it seems that Mona Barthel was ready to make a real impact on the WTA Tour, but those have failed to materialise although the young player still has time on her side.

She would be expecting to beat a veteran like Lucie Safarova who has slipped a little in terms of ability, although Safarova still has a big game that can be switched on at any time.

We saw that earlier this season when Safarova crushed Barthel for the loss of just 4 games in Stuttgart, but that match took place on a clay court and I certainly feel the outdoor hard courts favour the latter a little more.

It is on the hard courts where Safarova has slipped a lot this season as she brings in a 2-8 record into the match and that is down to players being able to hit through her a little easier than it would be on a clay court. Barthel likes getting on the front foot and playing aggressive tennis and that game is aided by the faster courts too and so I do feel we will see a reverse of the result that occurred in Stuttgart.

There is every chance that this goes to a third set decider, but Barthel should be a little tougher than Safarova if that happens and come through.


Maria Sharapova - 5.5 games v Sloane Stephens: This is the first match that Maria Sharapova will be playing since being beaten in the Second Round at Wimbledon, but this should be a match up that works to her favour if she truly is ready to go this week.

Sloane Stephens won't make it easy for Sharapova, but she will let the Russian dictate terms and that can be a problem if Sharapova is on her game. The younger player will look to use her legs to get the defensive side on the court sorted, but that won't be easy against someone who hits the ball as hard and as consistently as Sharapova.

It will be interesting to see what kind of impact Jimmy Connors has had on the Sharapova game, although we probably won't real difference until they have been together for three/four months. I also believe he has been brought in to mentally toughen up Sharapova in matches against Serena Williams who has dominated their rivalry.

I believe Sharapova is going to be a little too tough for Stephens as long as she serves well- if she does that, I believe the World Number 3 will come through 75, 63.


MY PICKS: Tommy Haas @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Mona Barthel - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-5, - 6 Units (14 Units Staked, - 42.86% Yield)