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Thursday 15 August 2013

Tennis Picks Cincinnati 2013 (August 15th)

There was some stunning news overnight as Wimbledon Champion Marion Bartoli announced her retirement around six weeks after she won the title in SW19- Bartoli said she has been playing through the pain barrier and feels she left all she had at Wimbledon in July and she is tired of tennis.

It would have been a perfect way to call it a day immediately after Wimbledon and that is why I believe this is a snap decision and she may just decide to take a few months of the Tour to try and build her fitness. It can be tough to give away a career, but the injuries have clouded her judgement at the moment and I still believe Bartoli will try and defend her title at Wimbledon and then call it a permanent day next year.

Regardless, I think Bartoli should be very glad about how her career went- she was a top ten player, reached two Grand Slam Finals, both at Wimbledon and won one of those, and had reached Semi Finals at the French and US Open.

If this really is the end, the Frenchwoman deserves her retirement and I hope she enjoys it.


Now we move on to the Third Round matches in Cincinnati and there are some very good looking matches on slate on Thursday, and the conditions look good for tennis today. Hopefully there will be some entertainment for those tuning in today.


Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Julien Benneteau: If Andy Murray could be a little more consistent at the Masters events, he would certainly be a lot closer to Novak Djokovic in the World Rankings, but he has a chance to make a serious dent in the difference this week.

The World Number 2 played well, for the most part, against Mikhail Youzhny although he would probably like to be a little more dominant behind the serve. Murray admitted afterwards that the conditions suited him very much here in Cincinnati and I do think he will be a little too good for Julien Benneteau.

Murray is not underestimating a player that can be very good on his day, but the Frenchman's serve can also be a weakness at times and that is where I believe Murray will be able to exploit him. It still is a lot of games to overcome, but Murray will have a chance to cover as long as he serves better than he did yesterday and continues to play the big points well.

I expect Benneteau will be confident with a couple of wins under his belt this week, but Murray is a lot stronger than Marcos Baghdatis and Radek Stepanek and I expect the Number 2 seed to come through 63, 63.


John Isner - 1.5 games v Milos Raonic: This should be a match that moves through quite quickly as both men are very capable of rattling through their service games behind a big serve.

I do prefer John Isner to get the better of Milos Raonic in this one as the latter has been playing a lot of tennis in the last ten days and that is bound to catch up on a player that has had a couple of issues with his arm.

There is no doubt that both players can be a little erratic during rallies and this match could very much come down to a couple of points here and there. However, Isner has been in better form of the two players if you take out the result that Raonic achieved in Montreal last week and I do think the Canadian has been fortunate with the draw this week as he took on youngster Jack Sock and out of form Janko Tipsarevic.

Like I say, this could come down to a couple of key points and which player is just that little bit tougher at break points, but Isner should come through after a tight battle.


Tommy Haas + 2.5 games v Roger Federer: The experiment with the new racquet may have been put on the back burner for the time being, but this is a real test for Roger Federer and where he is at with his game ahead of the US Open. The tournament in Cincinnati has been kind to Federer in his career and the defending Champion has won here five times previously, but confidence has to have been knocked after some poor results throughout 2013.

Facing Tommy Haas has proven to be a tough test for Federer throughout his career, even though the former World Number 1 is leading the head to head 12-3 which includes a win in their only meeting earlier this season.

However, Haas has been in good form during the hard court summer swing and he has a big game that will certainly pose Federer with some problems. These two are very good friends, but Haas isn't afraid of the Federer game and has a definite advantage when the rallies develop into one between the two one-handed backhands.

The German also has a big serve that can provide cheap points and I certainly think he is capable of stealing a set, while I also picked Haas to win this match on the ATP Fantasy Competition before the tournament began. Roger Federer does offer up more chances on his serve than he has in previous years and I feel Haas can push this into a tight three setter which should be enough to cover the spread as long as he plays the big points effectively and keeps hold of himself mentally.


Tomas Berdych win 2-0 v Tommy Robredo: Tommy Robredo was a little more solid than Stanislas Wawrinka at the key points of his Second Round win yesterday- who knows what would have happened if the Swiss player had taken his set point opportunity in the first set.

Regardless, Robredo recovered from a break down to win the final set against Wawrinka, but I expect a different outcome when he meets Tomas Berdych in this Third Round match.

I expect Berdych to be able to dominate the match behind his serve and Robredo, while having a good week so far, has not performed as effectively on the hard courts over the last twelve months compared with his form on clay, his most natural surface.

Robredo did beat Berdych in Barcelona earlier this season, but that was on the slower surface and Berdych will be a little too tough in this one as long as he serves well. There are times when the Czech player can come off the boil, but I believe he will have more chances to find a break of serve in the match and I expect him to win this 63, 76. 


Sara Errani - 2.5 games v Roberta Vinci: Best friends will meet in the Third Round today and I like Sara Errani to find her way past Roberta Vinci in this one.

They met last month on the clay courts and it was Vinci that surprised Errani on that occasion and snapped a five match losing run against her doubles partner- however, I feel the hard courts will only aid Errani a little more to find a way through Vinci and that is why I believe she is the more likely winner.

Both players use a lot of variation, are comfortable at the net, but I think Vinci has the slightly more effective serve which should keep her in the match. In my opinion, Errani is the more solid player off the ground off both wings and has that little burst of pace in her groundstrokes that should give her the edge in the extended rallies and that may be telling by the time the match is completed.

I am expecting a fair few breaks of serve in the match, but I do believe Errani will come out on the right side of those breaks in each set and come through 64, 64.


Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: I am not sure how Caroline Wozniacki escaped with a 64, 63 win over Monica Niculescu yesterday as she was struggling so much on serve and anything similar against Petra Kvitova will see the Dane exit the competition.

Kvitova has dominated the recent head to head against Wozniacki as she is the kind of player that has always given the latter troubles on the court- Kvitova has a solid serve and very powerful groundstrokes which gives her the chance to hit through Wozniacki, while the latter's serve is something Kvitova is happy to attack.

My biggest concern is the lack of consistency that Kvitova has shown over the last couple of seasons and a player that blows as hot and cold as she does is tough to back with any real confidence. However, I do think she will have chances to break the Wozniacki serve and even if this goes to three sets, Kvitova will likely be in a position to cover the spread as she can win a set with a couple of breaks of serve in the pocket.

I just feel Kvitova can win a few more cheaper points than Wozniacki and that should prove to be the ultimate difference in the match.


Sam Stosur - 2.5 games v Simona Halep: Simona Halep has returned from an injury to win a couple of matches here in Cincinnati this week, including becoming the last player to beat Marion Bartoli, but I don't thin the hard courts are where she is most effective.

She now faces an in-form Sam Stosur who is building up very effectively to the US Open where she won her only Grand Slam title. Stosur is capable of keeping opponents under the cosh with her very good serve and that is aided by the faster surfaces here in North America. I expect she will be able to cause Halep some problems with the kick serve and that should be the foundation on which to win this match and move on to the Quarter Final.


The two players were involved in a close match last year in Montreal, but Stosur is expected to be serving better than she was on that occasion even though she was leading the match 75, 44 before Halep had to retire.

Simona Halep is an improved player, but the slower courts helps her defensive ability and the faster courts have yet to really see the best of her. I expect Stosur can find her way to a 75, 64 win.


MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.38 Paddy Power (2 Units)
John Isner - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas + 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych win 2-0 @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-11, - 2.44 Units (42 Units Staked, - 5.81% Yield)

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