Tennis Picks Cincinnati 2013 (August 17th)

There was a little bit of strange news yesterday as Maria Sharapova decided to part company with Jimmy Connors after just one match together- I am not entirely sure what the reason behind that was, perhaps the latter was a little too intense for Sharapova, but it does mean her preparation for the US Open is going to be hindered.

Serena Wiliams is clearly the favourite to win the women's event at Flushing Meadows and this has just strengthened her position to do so in my opinion as there are big doubts about almost every one of her rivals.


It was a good day for the picks after that terrible start to the week, although surprisingly both outright picks were knocked out in the Quartet Finals. Over the course of 2013, I have barely hit any of my outright choices, but have come close on a consistent basis with a few points here and there making the difference.

However, a strong end to this week should provide a welcome boost after a tough month or so.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 games v John Isner: This is a big chance for Juan Martin Del Potro to finally break his Masters duck and win one of these 1000 events, especially with the top two players out of the tournament although Rafael Nadal is still in the event.

The match up against John Isner is one that Del Potro doesn't seem to mind having won all four previous matches between the two including in the Final at Washington last month. Being his size, Del Potro is able to return the big kick serve that Isner has with some real effect and he showed his effectiveness by breaking Isner four times in their last match.

Del Potro should be able to look after his serve for the most part, although he needs to keep his concentration and not drop serve with some poor play as he has earlier this week in his three matches.

As long as Del Potro takes the chances that come his way, which won't be frequent, he should find a way to cover this spread.


Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Roger Federer played about as good as at any point that I have seen him this season, but he was still not good enough to hold on to the coat-tails of a flying Rafael Nadal. The Spaniard had to recover from dropping the first set, but he played very well and wore down Federer.

I have no doubt that this all feels very special to Nadal- people were wondering whether he could play on the hard courts at all, and I don't think anyone would have expected him to not just play in back to back Masters tournaments on this surface, but also have a real chance of winning both.

I wasn't sure if Nadal would have enough time to close Novak Djokovic in the Number 1 spot in the World Rankings this season, but this form suggests he will finish in that position barring a complete drop off in performances.

This match against Tomas Berdych has been good to Nadal ever since their infamous match in Madrid in 2006, winning 14 matches in a row against the Czech player in that time. Nadal puts enough pressure on Berdych's serve simply with the way he plays every point like it is the last he will play and I expect Nadal to find a break more in each set to win the match.

Berdych is in good form after his win over Andy Murray and he hasn't dropped a set this week, but Nadal is playing at a phenomenal level at the moment and I expect the Spaniard to be too good.


Na Li + 5.5 games v Serena Williams: This spread looks a touch high considering how hard Na Li plays Serena Williams and that is why I think it is worth backing.

I know that Serena Williams is capable of obliterating anyone she plays on the Tour on any given day, but Li has a strong mentality and I don't think she is overawed when coming up against the World Number 1.

That strong personality means Li can hit out and force Williams to move and there aren't many players that have that ability. Her serve is also a little under-rated, especially when on form, and she has big enough groundstrokes to win some of the rallies.

I am not sure she has enough consistency in the locker to actually win the Semi Final, but Li is capable of taking at least one of the sets to a tie-break and definitely capable of keeping this close and competitive at least. Serena Williams has also played a lot of tennis in the last two weeks and could be a touch fatigued, although Li will have to play hard and consistently if she is to keep this as close as I think it will be.


MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Na Li + 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 17-16, + 2.32 Units (65 Units Staked, + 3.57% Yield)