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Thursday 29 August 2013

US Open Day 4 Picks 2013 (August 29th)

It looks like being a busy Day 4 at Flushing Meadows as a prolonged rain delay means a number of matches had to be cancelled on Wednesday, but the organisers will be glad that the tournament is still likely to be on schedule with all of the men's First Round matches completed (at the time of writing, Andy Murray was almost ready to begin his match).

However, the lack of roofing at this tournament is likely to pose a problem going into the weekend with rain expected on both Saturday and Sunday and that makes the decision to play the men's First Round over three days look all the more bizarre.

The biggest thing the organisers will want to avoid is making players do double-duty, particularly on the men's side, to get the tournament back on track next week, so it is imperative they get through all the Second Round matches before Saturday. If the weekend is then rained out, they still have the option of playing all of the Quarter Finals in one day, but any left over Second Round matches could leave those players in impossible positions.


It has been a mixed bag for the picks up to this point, although it might have been a lot better if Laura Robson didn't play just the one loose game in her win over Caroline Garcia, while Benoit Paire is struggling in his match. However, a couple of the set options have come right this time, while Angelique Kerber's match was one of those that was victim to the weather and will be opening on court on Thursday.


As has been the case the last few days, the layers are still playing catch up so picks for Day 4 will be be put on here hours before the tournament restarts.


Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: I was quite impressed with Roger Federer in the First Round in his win over Grega Zemjla, although I have to say that his opponent was fairly limited and I expect him to be pushed a lot more in this one.

Carlos Berlocq came through a five set match in the First Round and was suffering with a back injury, having a medical time-out during that match, and there will be some painful memories of the Arthur Ashe court where he was dismantled by Novak Djokovic a couple of years ago.

I don't expect the Argentine to be beaten as comfortably as he was on that occasion, but he is going to have to work for every point as his serve is not particularly dominant. Berlocq can get under the skin of some of his opponents, but Federer is a cool customer that will be comfortable on this court and I believe the Swiss man will eventually prevail 63, 64, 62.


Sam Querrey - 5.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: Adrian Mannarino is a limited player on the main Tour and I would be surprised if he can keep Sam Querrey at bay with the home support firmly behind the American in this one.

The left-handed Mannarino doesn't have a big weapon and that should give Querrey a chance to tee-off at times, especially once he gets a decent read on the serve. Querrey will have benefited from playing a left-hander in the First Round and he begun to find form in that match by racing through the last two sets for the loss of just three games.

It hasn't been a great season for Querrey and he is in danger of dropping out of the top 32 in the World Rankings, but he reached the Semi Final in Winston Salem last week and generally plays against a higher level of competition that Mannarino deals with.

One set may end with a tie-break, but Querrey to come through 63, 76, 64 looks the call from this match.


Bernard Tomic - 4.5 games v Dan Evans: A lot of people in Britain are excited by the potential that Dan Evans has and he has had a strong summer which has reached a crescendo with a straight sets win over Kei Nishikori in the First Round.

Evans has come through qualifying for this tournament and has reached the Final of a couple of Challenger tournaments, while Bernard Tomic has not been in the best of form of late.

The Australian is considered as a potential top five player in the future, but he has struggled for consistency and he has had a poor summer, although the win in the First Round in battling circumstances should give Tomic some confidence.

The way Tomic approaches matches should give Evans some problems as he does make a lot of balls back in play, although his movement isn't the best so the British player should have some success. It just feels that Evans is a touch over-rated thanks to his recent form and impressive win in the First Round, but I expect Tomic to prove why he is considered such a talent and come through in four sets with a 75, 46, 63, 62 win.


Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 games v Bradley Klahn: While Dan Evans has played well in a couple of Challenger events to give him confidence, Bradley Klahn has won one of those events and he came through a tough First Round match in impressive fashion.

The level of competition has taken a couple of steps up the ladder for him in this one as he takes on fellow left-hander Feliciano Lopez, a player that has had a real revival in form over the last couple of months and who reached the Fourth Round here last season.

Lopez has a very strong serve and that is aided by the hard courts, while the temperature is set to help him further by speeding up the courts a touch in this one. The Spaniard's return game can let him down at times, but Klahn won't be used to all the slice that Lopez uses nor will he fancy passing him at the net for much of the match.

As long as Lopez can serve effectively, I believe he will create chances to break serve and eventually come through 76, 63, 64.


Richard Gasquet - 8.5 games v Stephane Robert: A battle between two compatriots should favour the higher Ranked Richard Gasquet to come through, although Stephane Robert will be feeling good about his game having qualified and come through his own First Round match.

Robert has benefited from a kind draw and this match represents a serious step up in class from what he is used to facing, while there may be some nerves on his part as he faces a player that has been in the spotlight in France since a young boy.

That could lead to a few erratic games from Robert and it is one of the reasons I believe Gasquet will come through this Second Round match with some comfort. Robert can play opponents tough when he is on form, but I have the belief that he will either lose a set 61 or 62 in this one and that should give Gasquet the chance to cover.

I like Gasquet to win this 61, 64, 64.


Janko Tipsarevic - 4.5 games v Dudi Sela: It has been a really poor year for Janko Tipsarevic who has dropped out of the top 10 and is now out of the top 20 in the World Rankings and that's a sharp decline for a player that qualified for the End of Year Championships in London last year.

While it has been a poor year overall, Tipsarevic has reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open, Third Round at the French Open, although he also fell at the first hurdle at Wimbledon. The best of five set matches should at least give Tipsarevic a chance to play himself into matches and he should be fresh having received a retirement in the last Round.

His opponent, Dudi Sela, had to come through in five sets in the First Round, but he also won a Challenger over the course of the summer so I don't foresee confidence issues for him. However, Sela is someone that will give his opponents chances to break serve as that isn't a strong shot for him and he can also be overpowered by the top players on the Tour and Tipsarevic still counts even as poor as his form has been.

One of the few decent performances that Tipsarevic has produced this season came in Miami where he crushed Sela and I expect him to be too strong again.


Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 games v Chanelle Scheepers: Caroline Wozniacki made hard work of her First Round opponent, although a lot had to do with Ying-Ying Duan hitting out and finding the lines for a stretch of the second set.

I expect Wozniacki to be in a similar match this time as Chanelle Scheepers is unlikely to hold back, although I expect a similar scoreline to the Dane's First Round match and a 62, 64 win.

She frustrates opponents by making them play one more ball and that consistency to hit through Wozniacki is unlikely to be provided by Scheepers who had to go the distance to come through what looked like a decent First Round draw.

Scheepers has struggled when coming against the better players on the hard courts and I do think it will be the case in this Second Round match which will see Wozniacki come through relatively unscathed.


MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units) Rain Delayed Yesterday
Roger Federer - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Janko Tipsarevic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)

US Open Update: 11-13, + 0.41 Units (35 Units Staked, + 1.17% Yield)

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