College Football Week 5 Picks 2013 (September 26-28)

It was the toughest week I have faced in the NCAA College Football ranks last weekend, but I do feel that a few little things could have gone my way and it would have been a much more positive week.

Don't get me wrong, some of the picks I made were terrible especially the Cincinnati one to cover 23 points as they only scored 14 in their game.

My faith in the Michigan Wolverines was not rewarded either as they kept turning the ball over, although the Wolverines are still one of the unbeaten teams in the country.

However, Pittsburgh and Louisiana gave up Touchdowns in the last couple of minutes which changed those picks from covering the spread to failing to do so, while Kansas State did everything wrong in their loss to Texas as they twice fumbled the ball in within the Longhorns 30 and thus failed to cover when one Touchdown would have given them the chance to.


The Alabama Crimson Tide are still the Number 1 Ranked team in the country, but they haven't looked that good in the opening three games they have played and I am not convinced that they merit that position. However, as Ric Flair once put it, 'to be the man, you have to beat the man' and until that time, I would not expect the voters to jump off the two time defending Champions' bandwagon.

There are a number of schools that are lining up behind Alabama who have a test against Ole Miss this weekend, but there needs to be improvements if the Crimson Tide are to three-peat. The win at Texas A&M is the one impressive result that Alabama have on their record, but the likes of the LSU Tigers and an improving Auburn could pose problems as well as the winner of the SEC East if the Crimson Tide do get to the SEC Championship Game.


Miami Hurricanes @ South Florida Bulls Pick: The Miami Defense have looked very good so far this season and I can see them giving South Florida a lot of problems in this one. Unless the Bulls have sorted out their issues at Quarter Back, it is going to be tough for South Florida to compete in this game.

Miami should be more consistent moving the chains in this one and I am looking for their Defense to create a couple of big turnovers to help cover this spread.

The Hurricanes are facing their first road test which can be tough, but South Florida have been beaten by much weaker teams than Miami and I believe the road team is going to win this by three Touchdowns.


Northern Illinois Huskies @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: The Purdue Boilermakers are coming in off a heavy beating sustained at the hands of Wisconsin and I am not sure how focused they will be against a non-Conference opponent with a bye looming.

The Boilermakers haven't been a great home underdog in the last three years and their Offense could be made to look a little one-dimensional in this one.

That is where Northern Illinois' balanced Offense may end up having the more consistent success in this game, while the Huskies are 4-2 against the spread as the road favourite in the last year. The Huskies already have beaten the Iowa Hawkeyes from the Big 10 and I don't think Purdue are as good as that team.


Virginia Cavaliers @ Pittsburgh Panthers Pick: The Pittsburgh Panthers scored a lot of points in their last couple of games and I think they are going to cause problems for Virginia which could be compounded if David Watford continues struggling to look after the ball.

The turnovers could be the key for Pittsburgh in this one and the game could get out of hand if they build a lead and force Virginia away from rushing the ball.

Pittsburgh could move to 2-1 in the ACC and 2-0 in the Coastal Division in their first year in the Conference and really put themselves in a position to challenge for the Division title and a place in the Championship Game.

I'll be looking for them to create a couple more turnovers that leads to a ten point win.


Iowa Hawkeyes @ Minnesota Golden Gophers Pick: Both teams will look to run the ball against the other in this one as that is the strength of the Offenses, but both Defenses will feel they can at least restrict that aspect of the game and force the other to go to the air to win this game.

Iowa have the edge when it comes to throwing the ball, although it is the Minnesota Defense that will feel they can get the most pressure on the Quarter Back in the game.

I also still have a little more faith in the Golden Gophers running game, while Iowa are only 2-5 against the spread as the road favourite over the last three seasons. Minnesota have also won 3 of their last 4 home games in the series so I will take the points in this one.


Houston Cougars @ USTA Roadrunners Pick: This is the first inter-State game between these two schools and I am expecting the Cougars to come out on top in this one.

Houston should have more consistency moving the ball in this game, although both teams will have their successes at times. What may turn out to be the difference is the fact that Houston's Defense have at least created some turnovers and giving their Offense extra possessions could be critical to their chances of winning the game.

The Cougars have also improved to 7-4 against the spread as the road favourite in the last couple of years, including winning 2 games in that spot this season, and I like them to win this one by a field goal at least.


Arkansas State Red Wolves @ Missouri Tigers Pick: Both teams will have their successes moving the ball in this game and both should be able to score points, although Missouri are likely to have more creases to their Offense which will give them a more consistency in sustaining drives.

The Missouri Defense has also been responsible for creating turnovers and that should help them get ahead and force Arkansas State to try and throw the ball to get back into things.

With Adam Kennedy perhaps not completely comfortable in doing that, I expect Missouri can move away from Arkansas State and cover the spread.


California Golden Bears @ Oregon Ducks Pick: This is a huge spread, but I have a feeling it is going to be a long day for the California Golden Bears and I expect Oregon to make a statement about their intent in the Pac-12 this season.

I do think California will sustain some drives and score points, but Oregon play so quickly and can score quickly that even a 5 + Touchdown margin may not be enough for the Golden Bears.

The backdoor cover is a possibility with the Offense that California have, but Oregon is the play for me.


Fresno State Bulldogs @ Hawaii Warriors Pick: There is a clear difference in terms of talents in the two teams and I expect Fresno State to underline their win over Boise State against the correct opponent for them.

Of course this is the perfect letdown spot for a team that put in a lot of effort to win the game last Friday, but they won't want to lose their grip on the Mountain West West Division and a chance to win a Conference title so I expect the team to be focused.

Hawaii make too many mistakes to keep this close and I expect the Bullogs to win this fairly comfortably.

MY PICKS: Miami Hurricanes - 16 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Northern Illinois Huskies - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Panthers - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Minnesota Golden Gophers + 2 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Missouri Tigers - 21.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 37 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Fresno State Bulldogs - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 4: 2-6, - 4.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 51% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2-1, + 2.77 Units (8 Units Staked, + 34.63% Yield)
Week 2: 6-2, + 3.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.38% Yield)
Week 1: 4-3, + 0.74 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.57% Yield)

Season 2013: 17-13-1, + 2.98 Units (31 Units Staked, + 9.61% Yield)

Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)