NFL Week 1 Picks 2013 (September 5-9)

The NFL is back and I guess when you get older, the faster time flies as I feel it was just last weekend I was cheering on the Baltimore Ravens to knock off the San Francisco 49ers.

Baltimore winning the Super Bowl really did come out of left-field having come so close during the years, but I wasn't convinced Joe Flacco was going to lead them to a title while the Defense was getting older. However, Baltimore really put it together in the final month of the season and, along with some divine intervention in that game at Denver in the Play Offs, helped them win the title, although things have certainly changed her in the off-season.

The last few seasons have shown how difficult it is to make season long predictions with teams getting hot in the final few weeks of the regular season and using that momentum to go all the way to win the Super Bowl.

Other things like props on who will finish with the most receiving yards or rushing yards are so reliant on injuries and factors that you can't see or determine in September that I don't really get involved in that.

For anyone that is interested, I can see Adrian Peterson dominating the rushing charts again if he stays healthy, while I like Dez Bryant to finally show a real consistency over the course of a season and show why he is amongst the best Receivers in the League. The fact I have drafted both in a number of Fantasy Football Leagues I play in has nothing to do with those predictions(!)


Below you will find my predictions as to how the Divisions will break down and who I think will win the SuperBowl next year in New York, but these are just my predictions. After that, I will post up my picks from Week 1 which begins on Thursday night with the reigning Champions Baltimore travelling to Denver in a fascinating rematch of last season's crazy Play Off game.

Let us just all hope for a really good season and a fascinating six months of football.


AFC East: The AFC East has been dominated by the New England Patriots (11-5) and I still expect them to top this Division at the end of the regular season even after all the disruption caused by Aaron Hernandez and his issues with the law.

Hernandez is gone, and Rob Gronkowski has had problems with his forearm which means the dangerous two Tight End combination is not always available, while Wes Welker's departure is going to have some serious ramifications for them. New England will go with a lot of young Receivers, but while they have Tom Brady I expect them to be a decent team.

The other contenders in the AFC East are not ready to challenge for the crown either and that is the reason I pick the Patriots to win the Division. The Miami Dolphins (9-7) could come closest and I have picked them to take a Wild Card this season with the off-season investment and a strong Defense.

It will mean Miami winning some big games and I have picked them to beat the Patriots at home as well as Baltimore and Cincinnati so there will be a lot of people out there thinking I am clutching at straws there but I saw signs that the Dolphins are an improving team and I am expecting more from Ryan Tannehill too this season.

The Buffalo Bills (7-9) and the New York Jets (3-13) are likely to have transition seasons in the Division with a new Head Coach in Buffalo and the Jets keeping Rex Ryan on as HC with the likelihood that he will be gone at the end of the season.


AFC North: This is one of the toughest Divisions in the NFL and it is really difficult to separate the top three teams.

I have seen a lot of publications pick the Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) as the team to take the Division crown this season, but I think their schedule may just cause a few problems, while I am still not convinced about Andy Dalton as the Quarter Back of the team.

The Bengals have a lot of talent in the roster on both sides of the ball, but I preferred the schedule that the Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) have, while I also think the Baltimore Ravens (9-7) will finish with better records than Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh are ageing and have made changes on both sides of the ball with some key veterans moving on, but the Steelers have a top Head Coach in Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger gives them a chance to win any game. The Steelers lost a number of close games last season and changing a couple of those into wins will see them get back to double-digit number of wins.

The schedule seems to favour Pittsburgh a little more than Baltimore and that is why I have picked them ahead of the Ravens. Baltimore have lost key players throughout the team that won the SuperBowl last season and have lost Dennis Pitta for an extended period of time, while a number of leaders have moved on or retired (Ed Reed, Ray Lewis).

Baltimore have a tough schedule too which begins with that trip to Denver and I expect the Cleveland Browns (4-12) to round up the Division.


AFC South: One of the more disappointing endings to last season was the one that the Houston Texans (11-5)  but I expect them to have a chance to make amends this season by winning this Division yet again.

The schedule is made more difficult by the fact that this Division is paired with the powerhouse NFC West this season and I expect Houston to see their record drop from last season. The arrival of Ed Reed at least gives them a little more leadership in a Secondary that was torched by New England twice last season,

Houston are helped by the Division they are in and I expect them to finish ahead of the Indianapolis Colts (8-8), Tennessee Titans (6-10) and Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13).

Indianapolis were a revelation last season as they won 11 games with rookie Quarter Back Andrew Luck behind Center, but they won a lot of close games and I don't expect the ball to fall in the same way two seasons in a row. They are still a young team and it just wouldn't be a surprised for me to see the Colts drop off from last season and perhaps miss the Play Offs this season.

I am not expecting much from Jacksonville this season as they try and turnaround a franchise that has stagnated and fallen to their worst regular season record a year ago. The Jags should win more than the 2 games they managed last season, but not by much, while Tennessee are perhaps the most interesting team in this Division.

The Titans finished 9-7 in 2011 and 6-10 last season, but they have made some smart moves in the off-season. Revamping the Offensive Line looks to have been a success and I expect Chris Johnson to get back on track from the Running Back position, but I am not a big fan of Jake Locker who is being backed up by Ryan Fitzpatrick at the Quarter Back spot.

Tennessee also have a tough schedule and could be behind the eight ball come their bye week (I project Tennessee at 2-5 at that point) and it is hard to see where the Titans win enough games to finish with a winning record in the Division.


AFC West: If anyone other than the Denver Broncos (13-3) win this Division, it would likely be down to them losing a couple of key players, like Peyton Manning, to injury. The Broncos have had a couple of setbacks in the off-season with injuries hurting their Offensive Line, Von Miller being suspended for the opening six games and Elvis Dumervil left for Baltimore because he didn't fax his contract extension in on time.

I like the addition of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to the backfield to improve the Secondary and the arrival of Wes Welker adds another crease to an already loaded Offense. I am expecting Denver to finish with the Number 1 seed in the AFC again this season and to finish with the same record as last season.

I don't see any real challengers to the Denver crown either although I do expect a big improvement from the Kansas City Chiefs (8-8) who won just 2 games last season. Alex Smith should give them a lot better chance to win games if he continues to play the mistake free football he did in his last two years with the 49ers as the Chiefs Defense will keep them in games.

Kansas City should make improvements throughout their Offense, but I am not convinced they have enough to steal a Wild Card spot although they will battle for that place.

The San Diego Chargers (7-9) and the Oakland Raiders (3-13) are both going to go through a rebuilding period, but I have picked San Diego to win 7 games if their Offense can fire. Oakland need time to fix the problems that have blighted the team since reaching the SuperBowl in 2002 and they may have to suffer through another year where they lose a lot of games after winning just 4 games last year.


AFC Division Winners: New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans and Denver Broncos
AFC Wild Cards: Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins
AFC Champion: Denver Broncos


NFC East: Out of the all Divisions in the NFL, the NFC East and the AFC North were the two that I had a hard time in picking a winner. At least in the AFC North, I could pick a team that I think would finish with a winning record, but that isn't the case in this Division.

I am finding it very hard to separate the New York Giants (8-8) and the Dallas Cowboys (8-8) although I do feel there is more of an upside with the latter. Either one of those teams could finish with a winning record and take the Division, but I would imagine it would be the Cowboys who can do that as long as they stay healthy, which is never a given in the NFL.

All of the teams in the Division have tough schedules, but I have given the Cowboys the edge over their rivals because I think they will finish 4-2 in the Division and that will give them the tie-breaker over the Giants.

It was the Washington Redskins (7-9) who finished with the title last season, but there are some question marks as to how healthy Robert Griffin III will be, although he is back for the opening game. I also have some doubts as to how good the team is that overachieved last season, while the schedule isn't doing them any favours. Road games at Denver, Green Bay, Atlanta and their three Divisional rivals is a tough slate to overcome and I can't see them repeating the Play Off trick this season.

Another team I question is the Philadelphia Eagles (6-10) under the new guidance of Chip Kelly- I can see them surprising a few teams if the Offense clicks with some playmakers on that unit, but the Defense looks like it will have some problems now the bigger names have been moved on.


NFC North: The NFC North has been dominated by the Green Bay Packers (13-3) in recent seasons and there is no doubt in my mind that one of the SuperBowl contenders will win this Division again as long as they don't have a serious injury to someone like Aaron Rodgers.

It will be interesting to see how far the Defense has come as they get the chance to take on the read-option of the San Francisco 49ers again following their painful and brutal beating in the Play Offs at the same stadium last January, but the schedule in the whole is one that could have the Packers fighting for the Number 1 seed in the NFC.

Greg Jennings may be gone, but the Packers have moved on with their younger Receivers and they will score plenty of points. One concern is the loss of Bryan Baluga on an Offensive Line that has struggled at times, but the arrival of Eddie Lacy gives them a strong Running Back and the Defense may have improved from their experiences of last season.

The closest challenges to the Division crown will likely come from the Chicago Bears (9-7) and the Minnesota Vikings (7-9), but both of those teams have some questions to answer coming into the new season. Chicago begin with a new Head Coach, but they could challenge for a Wild Card spot if they adjust to the new Offense being set up after winning 10 games a season ago.

Minnesota still have big questions about their Quarter Back and can't rely on Adrian Peterson having the same kind of year as last season when he essentially carried his team into the Play Off with his near record amount of rushing yards. The Vikings are loaded with talent from the Draft, but they will need a year to put it all together and the schedule again is the biggest factor that would worry me.

What could be the most interesting team in the Division is the disappointing Detroit Lions (6-10) who were amongst the leading choices for a SuperBowl spot last season. The Lions only won 4 games a year ago, but this a team loaded with talent and the Defense looks frightening up front.

I have the Lions winning 6 games, but they could have that many wins under their belt by their bye week if they come out focused and they may just be the dark horse that has been under-estimated in almost every place I've read.


NFC South: It is SuperBowl or bust for the Atlanta Falcons (11-5) this season as far as I am concerned as that will be the minimum of the goals set out for Mike Smith and his team. The return of Tony Gonzalez is huge for the Falcons Offense which has been given another crease by the signing of Steven Jackson.

The Offensive Line is going to be revamped, but they look a strong team all around and the signing of Osi Umenyiora gives them the chance to apply more pressure at the front from their Defense. It is clear the Falcons want an improvement from the Secondary having spent their first two Draft picks on Corner Backs. However, they do look the team to hold off the challenge of the likely resurgent New Orleans Saints (10-6).

I believe the reinstatement of Sean Payton as Head Coach will improve the Saints this season, although there remain some serious question marks on the Defense and how that unit will play a year after being torched through the air regularly. Rob Ryan has come in to provide some more aggression to that unit, but there is only so much a Defensive Co-Ordinator can do, although the Saints remain very tough to play against in their home dome.

New Orleans should have enough to win more than a couple, at least, of their road games on the schedule and that could be enough to propel the team back to the Play Offs after missing out last year.

I think there are some real problems to address at both the Carolina Panthers (6-10) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) and I have both finishing with losing records. I am not a fan of Carolina's schedule and I still don't think they have enough playmakers on both sides of the ball to improve on their 7 wins from last season and the Panthers may even take a step back.

Tampa Bay have made some decent off-season moves, none more so than bringing in Darrelle Revis, but Josh Freeman needs to find the consistency to keep hold of the Quarter Back job in his contract year and the schedule remains a little too difficult to see them surpass the 7 wins they managed last year.


NFC West: This was being considered as the best Division in the NFL before injuries have taken their toll on the top two teams, although I still expect the San Francisco 49ers (14-2) and the Seattle Seahawks (11-5) to be the teams to beat in the NFC after their performances last season.

Colin Kaepernick was a revelation for Jim Harbaugh who was proved right to give him the Quarter Back job at the expense of the now departed Alex Smith. However, there isn't much depth behind him and his scrambling style means he is susceptible to taking a hit that could ruin the 49ers chance of reaching their goal of returning to the SuperBowl.

Michael Crabtree is missing for the season, but this Defense remains stout and Kaepernick can help the team make enough plays to challenge for the Number 1 seed in the NFC, especially with the schedule they have been dealt.

Seattle will also be relying on their Defense to help them out this season as their Offense lost Percy Harvin before he has taken a snap for his new team. Injury to Sidney Rice puts more pressure on Russell Wilson's legs and I am expecting the Seahawks to come in as a Wild Card team to the post-season, although they have to manage a tough schedule.

Teams like the St Louis Rams (7-9) and the Arizona Cardinals (5-11) have some real talent, especially on the Defenses, but I don't know if they have the experience in the case of the former or have made all the adjustments for their new Head Coach in the case of the latter.

I expect both teams to give their Divisional rivals in Seattle and San Francisco real problems when they play against them, but they may not be ready to take the step of challenging for the Division just yet.


NFC Division Winners: Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons and San Francisco 49ers
NFC Wild Cards: Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints
NFC Champion: San Francisco 49ers


SuperBowl Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 28-24 Denver Broncos


These are only my personal predictions as to how the season will go, but injuries, off field distractions, Coaching changes are all factors that I couldn't possibly determine right now. As long as we have a season to enjoy, and I win my Fantasy Football Leagues, and the Miami Dolphins win the SuperBowl, I will accept my predictions to be wrong in September.

Hopefully, on a week by week basis, the picks will prove to be effective as I look to make the small changes to the way I select games in the middle of the season when my last season really struggled and ultimately left me with a small loss. If it wasn't for a perfect run during the Play Offs, it would have been a lot worse as the picks had a terrible time from Week 10-16.

The games will be spread out between Thursday and Monday every week this season so the picks will come up as soon as I feel the lines are worth locking in so check back on this post over the next few days, while I will also update my Twitter page @DavAulak when new picks have been made.


Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos Pick: The first game of the NFL season moves away from the recent tradition of the reigning SuperBowl Champions opening the season at home, thanks mainly to the ridiculous Baltimore Orioles who refused to change the schedule for one of their eighty-one home games played in a season.

The Baltimore Ravens have thus been given the task to take on the favourites for the SuperBowl this season as they visit Denver to take on the Broncos, a team that will be desperate for revenge having lost in heartbreaking fashion here in the Play Offs to the Ravens last season.

It does seem the Ravens are being given a lot of points in this one, although they have lost a number of players from the team that won the big game in New Orleans last February. However, the arrival of Elvis Dumervil, a former Bronco, should give them the opportunity to put Peyton Manning under some pressure, even more so now the Denver Offensive Line is down to their third choice Center.

Manning will still have success in the game, but Denver could be made to be a little one dimensional with a youthful backfield and the Ravens may have some element of control of this Offense.

On the other side of the ball, Baltimore are missing Dennis Pitta through injury, while Anquan Boldin has moved on, but the Ravens could still have some success throwing the ball against this Secondary that is likely without Champ Bailey. The loss of Dumervil has taken away one rushing player the Broncos had last season, while the suspension to Von Miller should also mean the Offensive Line can give Joe Flacco time to hurt the Broncos.

Denver are playing with revenge on their minds in this one and they were 5-2-1 against the spread as a home favourite last season, but I still think issues on both sides of the ball will give Baltimore a real chance to pull the surprise here. The Ravens are 14-8-1 against the spread as the road underdog in recent seasons, including going 2-0 in the post-season last year and getting more than a touchdown head start looks generous.


New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Pick: I have been going back and forth with this game, but it is hard to ignore the New England Patriots dominance of this series, particularly in Buffalo where they are 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 visits.

Yes, the Patriots are missing some key personnel, are coming off an awful off-season thanks to off field issues, and Tom Brady will be working with a young set of Receivers, but Buffalo are missing a couple of key pieces of their Secondary and that could level the playing field somewhat.

The biggest difference will be that Buffalo are going to be going with their rookie Quarter Back EJ Manuel this week and I imagine Bill Belichick sets up the rookie to make some mistakes and any extra possessions that Tom Brady gets on the Offense should allow the Patriots to move through for a double-digit win.

Buffalo are just 2-6-1 against the spread as a home underdog facing a Divisional rival over the last five seasons.


Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: The Pittsburgh Steelers might have lost some key players since last year, but they were a team that lost a lot of close games last season and I am expecting them to get back into the Play Offs this time around.

Ben Roethlisberger is likely going to be pressured for much of the game by the Titans pass rush, but I am expecting him to make a few big plays against a poor Secondary and a Defense that gave up the most points per game in 2012. Gregg Williams may help the aggression of Tennessee's Defense, but that could also leave them exposed at times.

The question then becomes whether Jake Locker can make the plays to keep the Titans in the game and I don't really trust him to be able to do that- the Offensive Line has improved to help give Locker time, but the Steelers have a Defense that is tough to run against historically and that means the pressure will be on the Quarter Back to make plays.

It is the first time that Locker will have come up against Dick LeBeau and that may see him make a couple of critical mistakes that proves to be the difference in the game. If those mistakes do come out, Pittsburgh should win this by at least 7 points.


Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Pick: There really isn't a lot to say about this game except there should be a bunch of points from both teams and it could easily come down to which of the teams has the ball last as to who wins the game.

I do think there are a couple of factors that are pointing to the New Orleans Saints to come out on top in this game though: First, they have the return of Sean Payton who should inspire the team and really get the crowd pumped up to take on their Divisional rival at the start of a season where the Play Offs will be goal for the Saints.

Second, New Orleans are very tough to play in the Dome; they are 28-11 in the last five seasons in this Dome, and they are 10-5 in those games against NFC South teams.

Drew Brees and Matt Ryan will likely have big numbers in this one, but I just feel the Saints will be ready for this one and I will look for Rob Ryan's aggressive Defense creating one key turnover that makes all the difference in the game.


Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: The Kansas City Chiefs and the Jacksonville Jaguars had the joint worst records in the NFL last season, but I do believe there is more talent in the Chiefs squad to turn things around this season and I expect them to show that in their first game of the season here.

New Head Coaches for both teams will look to make the difference, but there are a couple of key areas where I believe Kansas City will have the edge that helps them win this game and cover the spread,

Alex Smith might not be a Quarter Back that excites fans, but he can manage the game effectively and I believe he will make the throws that helps move the chains after Jamaal Charles sets up third and manageable situations for him. Dwayne Bowe and Anthony Fasano both have decent hands and big bodies that can make the catches to keep drives alive.

On the other hand, Blaine Gabbert will once again start for Gus Bradley's Jacksonville Jaguars and he is up against a strong Kansas City Defense that may be under-rated because of the record of last season. I expect this Defense to get pressure in Gabbert's face, which is something the Quarter Back has not dealt with effectively in the past.

The Chiefs are also more capable of keeping Maurice Jones-Drew in check, at least relatively to what the Jaguars will do to Charles, and Gabbert will also be missing Justin Blackmon. It is hard to see the Jaguars scoring a lot of points in this one and that should allow Kansas City to make a couple of big plays that leads to the cover.


Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns Pick: There has been a lot of work done with the Miami Dolphins in the off-season and the expectation has certainly increased that the Dolphins can challenge for a Wild Card place in the AFC this season. The Dolphins have a tough start to the season with back to back road games and they have to split those to give themselves a real chance of having a strong season.

This is the more winnable game of the two they start the season with, although Cleveland could be an improved team now that Norv Turner has come in as Offensive Co-Ordinator to help Brandon Weeden after the Quarter Back struggles last year. Trent Richardson should also be the explosive Running Back the Browns wanted, but the Dolphins have a tough Defense.

On the other side of the ball, Joe Haden should take away Mike Wallace in the passing attack, but Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson do give Ryan Tannehill other options as long as the Offensive Line can give him some time. Lamar Miller should help Tannehill out by getting yards on the ground too and taking the points looks the call in this one.

Miami are 23-11-2 against the spread as the road underdog in recent seasons, while the Browns are just 4-8-2 in the home favourite spot. However, my judgement could be clouded by the emotion of being a 'Fin Fan' so I will keep stakes to the minimum on this one.


Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: While I think the Indianapolis Colts overachieved last season and are likely to have a step back in terms of wins this season, they still look like they will be far too good for the Oakland Raiders in this opening game of the new year.

With Andrew Luck being protected by a revamped Offensive Line, I expect the former Number 1 pick to have more success this year and I think he will find plenty of time to find Reggie Wayne and TY Hilton downfield in this one. Ahmad Bradshaw will make it a little easier for Luck as he should be able to pick up yardage on the ground too and this could be a tough season for Oakland all around.

If the Colts are scoring points, Oakland will have a tough time keeping up as Reggie McKenzie and Dennis Allen try to right the numerous mistakes that have been made by the club since reaching the SuperBowl in 2002.

Matt Flynn's fall from grace since that huge game for the Green Bay Packers at the end of the 2011 season has been completed as he was beaten out for the starting Quarter Back job in Oakland by Terrelle Pryor after losing out to Russell Wilson in Seattle last year.

While Pryor is more mobile, he is playing behind an Offensive Line that will struggle to keep the pressure off him and I am not sure the former Ohio State Buckeye has the mechanics to keep up if Andrew Luck puts up the points I expect for the Colts.

Oakland have to travel across the country for an early start in this one and they are just 6-14 against the spread as the road underdog against non-Divisional opponents and everything seems to point to an easy Colts win.


Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: We have all heard how the Green Bay Packers have been preparing all summer for the read-option that San Francisco run after being humiliated in the Play Offs, but I still like the 49ers to get off to a positive start in this one.

Michael Crabtree is missing the for the season for the 49ers, but there is still enough talent here to keep the chains moving and it all begins with Colin Kaepernick. The Quarter Back can scramble for big gains in this one, but he also has the arm to find the likes of Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis, while Frank Gore will help keep the team in manageable situations.

I also still think Green Bay could struggle for some consistency on Offense because the Offensive Line will have a tough time giving Aaron Rodgers chances to throw against the weakest aspect of the 49ers Defense in the Secondary. Bryan Baluga is out for the season, which means an inexperienced Left Tackle will protect the Rodgers blind side and I expect Justin Smith and Aldon Smith to find their ways into the backfield.

It's never a good thing going against Aaron Rodgers as an underdog, but I just think the San Francisco team is a bad match up for them, particularly with Kaepernick providing a dual-threat behind Center. The 49ers beat the Packers twice last season, once here in the Play Offs and once on the road on the opening weekend of the season.

The 49ers are 10-3 against the spread as the home favourite against non-Divisional opponentsunder Jim Harbaugh. Green Bay are a strong road underdog, but they were just 1-2 against the spread in that spot last year and I like the 49ers in this one to win by at least 7.


New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: One of my best friends is a huge Dallas Cowboys fan and he put in a passionate and reasoned argument as to why the Cowboys won't just win this game, but will blow out the New York Giants.

He makes good points- I agree that Dallas have much more talent on both sides of the ball than the Giants and I also agree that an improved Offensive Line should help Tony Romo immensely in giving him time to make the correct decisions.

DeMarco Murray needs to stay healthy so the Cowboys don't become one-dimensional, but they should be able to put up plenty of points in this one.

However, the Giants always play Dallas tough in Arlington and they will want to make a much more positive start than last year when they were beaten at home by the Cowboys. There is still some talent in the New York team, but Victor Cruz could be limited and Eli Manning needs to prove his arm issues from 2012 are no longer a factor. David Wilson will certainly help by running the ball out of the backfield but this looks a game that could be a shoot-out decided by turnovers.

Tony Romo needs to protect the ball better than he does at times, while Dallas have been a terrible home favourite to back in recent seasons. The Cowboys are 3-17 against the spread as a home favourite in the last three seasons, going 4-17 as a home favourite against NFC East teams over the last few years.

The Giants are 10-3 against the spread as the road underdog at NFC East teams in recent seasons... This may just be the blowout that my friend spoke about, but you can't ignore how Dallas have played at home as the favourite and so I'll have a small interest on the Giants with the points.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins Pick: This is an intriguing Monday Night Football game between two Divisional rivals with expectations switched from a year ago. Back in September 2012, Philadelphia would have been tipped as one of the leading contenders in the NFC East, but now it is all change at the club, while Washington would have been picked as the team to finish in the basement of the Division but actually went through and won the East.

Chip Kelly comes in as Head Coach of the Eagles after all the success he had at Oregon, but it isn't easy to translate the College game to the NFL as Steve Spurrier found out. However, the Offense in Philadelphia should suit what Kelly wants to do and the Offensive Line should offer Michael Vick more protection now they are fully healthy compared with last season.

I also don't believe the Washington Defense is as good as advertised so I do expect the Eagles to move the chains and score points, even without Jeremy Maclin who was lost for the season.

However, Philadelphia are unlikely to have a great Defense this season after a lot of the big name players were allowed to move on this off-season and there is also a change to the system. Robert Griffin is back for Washington, but he could be tentative early after the knee injury that ended his rookie season and the Redskins may need to lean on Alfred Morris to keep the Offense in third and manageable situations.

Washington should be able to score enough points to win the game, but the Eagles are 10-3 against the spread as the road underdog at NFC East rivals in recent years and they have enough talent to keep this close with a field goal very possibly deciding the game.


Houston Texans @ San Diego Chargers Pick: This is a big season for the Houston Texans who need to have a deep run in the Play Offs to consider this season even close to a success and it all begins in the second Monday Night Football game as they head to San Diego to take on the Chargers.

I know a lot of people are not convinced about what Matt Schaub brings to the table as a Quarter Back, but I do believe he is capable of doing a little more than managing a game. Schaub should be protected enough by his Offensive Line to find the passing lanes to Andre Johnson, while the draft of DeAndre Hopkins to play on the other side gives Schaub another big target to aim for.

Adrian Foster and Ben Tate should be able to find holes to make life even easier for the Quarter Back and I expect Houston to have a lot of success moving the chains throughout this game.

And it isn't just the Offense that should be rolling- the Defense has the chance to really give the San Diego Offensive Line a terrible time and I don't think Philip Rivers will have a lot of time to let plays develop. Houston can at least contain Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead for the main part through their powerful run Defense and the pressure will be on Rivers to make the throws to keep the chains moving.

The Texans have never beaten San Diego, but I think they look too good on both sides of the ball and win this one by seven points or more.


MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens + 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 3 Points @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 2 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 10.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New York Giants + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Houston Texans - 4 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units