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NBA PlayOffs 2024- First Round Picks Games 1-4 (April 20-29)

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Thursday 10 October 2013

NFL Week 6 Picks 2013 (October 10-14)

It was a decent, if not spectacular, week for the picks through Week 5 and that has kept the season in a very strong position. Yet again, I didn't think this was going to be a great week with the way some of the picks developed during the course of Sunday, especially when looking through my shortlist and realising I had left a lot out there.

Even with that in mind, any time you can pick up a positive week is a good thing, especially in an unpredictable and erratic sport like the NFL and I will take that momentum any time.


Week 5 Thoughts
Minnesota Vikings sign Josh Freeman: This was a very interesting move by the Minnesota Vikings and I didn't have them at the top of my list when it came to potential landing points for Josh Freeman.

Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel are already on the depth chart at Minnesota and it was the latter of those players that helped the team to their first win of the season.

The real talking point is how this is going to affect Ponder going forward- the move suggests Leslie Frazier is not keen on hitching his potential future as Head Coach of the Vikings on Ponder and the leash has definitely shortened for the former First Round pick.

It has been stated that Ponder is still the starter at Quarter Back when he is healthy and he will keep the job IF he plays well... However, I don't think he has too much room to make mistakes with a couple of former starters behind him and waiting for their opportunity and I remain unconvinced that Ponder will keep the starting job.

But will Josh Freeman be the man to take over? He had his issues in Tampa Bay as the falling out with Greg Schiano displayed, but Freeman has the tools to be a decent Quarter Back and that is all the Minnesota Vikings are looking for at this moment with Adrian Peterson at Running Back. There are rumours of Freeman fighting a few personal demons too, but this could be a very important move for him and the change of scenario may have been all that he needed to get back to the form he displayed a couple of years ago.


5-0 is no guarantee of success: Moving to 5-0 will certainly give teams a real chance of making the Play Offs, but actually being successful and winning a Super Bowl is a different matter if recent years are anything to go by.

Over the last five seasons, ten teams have started 5-0 and only two of those have missed the Play Offs... However, only two of the ten teams have actually made it through to the Super Bowl and that happened in the same 2009 season.

Interestingly, those two teams were the New Orleans Saints (led by Drew Brees) and the Indianapolis Colts (led by Peyton Manning) so maybe it's the right time to back a Saints-Broncos Super Bowl this year!


Calling Tony Romo a choker is plain wrong after Sunday's loss: Look, I am the first person to say I don't necessarily trust Tony Romo to make the right plays in December- the last few seasons has seen him make some critical mistakes at the end of the season which has cost Dallas a place in the Play Offs, but to put Sunday in that category is wrong, wrong, wrong.

Romo played some stellar football on Sunday and I think Dallas may have been the latest team to be blown out by the Denver Broncos if their Quarter Back wasn't making some outstanding plays.

He matched Peyton Manning point for point, even leading Dallas back from a 15 point deficit in the third quarter, and Romo also had a franchise record in passing yards. The Interception which eventually sealed the game was a mistake, but to call him a choker is just hating on the player because he had been so good throughout the game.

Romo made some amazing plays in the game, but one of my favourites is below.



If you can't get a pass rush, you just can't win: The NFL is very much a passing League these days and that has been seen by the reduction in value of Running Backs, but that also means teams that can't generate a decent pass rush are unlikely to have a lot of success.

The Atlanta Falcons found this out on Monday night as they dropped to 1-4 for the season... In their game with the New York Jets, Geno Smith was given so much time to settle in the pocket and you wouldn't have thought the rookie was the same player that struggled so much in Tennessee and Buffalo earlier in the season.

Even with a lead and under two minutes left to play, the Falcons couldn't do anything to slow down the Jets who comfortably took the ball into Field Goal range and knocked over the three points to win that game. There will be a lot of question marks in Atlanta in what looked like a Super Bowl or bust kind of season, while matters could be made worse if Julio Jones is ruled out for the season as reports are indicating as of Tuesday night.


Have you ever wondered why mascots don't make good referees?



Top Five
1) Denver Broncos (5-0): Denver had to hang on somewhat in their game against Dallas, but they remain unbeaten and the best team in the AFC right now.

2) New Orleans Saints (5-0): The only unbeaten team left in the NFC and they look pretty good on both sides of the ball.

3) Kansas City Chiefs (5-0): I am still to be convinced as to how legit the Kansas City Chiefs are, but they have made a very good start to the season.

4) Seattle Seahawks (4-1): Playing back to back road non-Conference games is a big ask for any team, but they get to go back home this weekend where they are dominant.

5) New England Patriots (4-1): Like with Seattle, playing back to back road games is a big test of any team and the loss of Vince Wilfork is going to be very tough to overcome. However, they impending return of Rob Gronkowski keeps the Patriots just ahead of the Indianapolis Colts for me.


Bottom Five
32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5): It is clearly a rebuilding process taking place in Jacksonville and they head into Week 6 as the biggest underdog in NFL history.

31) New York Giants (0-5): I might have the Giants in the second worst spot in the League at this moment, but staggeringly they are only 2 games out of the Division lead in the NFC East.

30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4): I have improved Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh by one place each thanks to the Giants ineptitude when losing to Philadelphia and unfortunately the 'bye' couldn't pick up the win against the Buccaneers and Steelers.

29) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4): Same as above.

28) Minnesota Vikings (1-3): There is a Quarter Back controversy brewing in Minnesota, but they did win their last game and can move out of the bottom five by knocking off the Carolina Panthers this weekend.


Week 6 Picks
There were a couple of late calls and injuries that would have changed my picks last week, but fortunately they cancelled one another out. I would never have laid the points with Cleveland if I knew Brian Hoyer would be knocked out of the game in only the Browns second possession of the game and Brandon Weeden was going to play the majority of the game.

Cleveland still covered thanks to their Special Teams plays, including a punt return for a Touchdown, but I will also say that I would never have taken Detroit for a unit if I had even the inkling of a doubt that Calvin Johnson would not be playing so those picks cancelled one another out.

No doubt my worst pick from last week was laying the points with the New York Giants, although laying the points with Carolina wasn't that far behind... Picking the 49ers to beat the Houston Texans handily was clearly the best pick of the weekend and wasn't in doubt as soon as Matt Schaub threw a pick six to open the game.

All in all, Week 5 produced another small profit which keeps the season ticking along nicely and I will look for the momentum to continue as another week gets set to get underway.


New York Giants @ Chicago Bears Pick: This is the third week in a row that I will play the Thursday Night Football game and I like the road underdog to keep this close, although I probably need my head testing backing the New York Giants with the way they have played this season.

I just don't believe that the Chicago Bears should be more than a Touchdown favourite on anyone at the moment after losing back to back games and also with a Defense that has struggled to maintain the standard that had been set over the last few years.

Neither team gets a lot of pressure on the opposition Quarter Back and we saw what Geno Smith was capable to do on Monday Night Football when there is no pressure on the QB in this League... Especially with the two Secondary units that have struggled to defend the pass all season.

Chicago are the more likely winners as they have a running game to speak of and that can provide the difference in a game where both Quarter Backs should have some success throwing the ball. Also, the Bears may have struggled to get to the opposition Quarter Back so far, this is the worst Offensive Line they would have seen and the Giants are going to have a tough time slowing down the pass rush on the short week.

Despite that, I do think the Giants are capable of making some big plays as long as Eli Manning can find a way to avoid the mistakes that have plagued him all season. If the Bears rush is even a semblance slow, which is possible in the absence of Henry Melton, Manning is still good enough to hit his Offensive weapons.

The Bears have been a poor home favourite to back in recent seasons, going 7-12 against the spread in that spot over the last three years.


Green Bay Packers @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: This is a difficult game to predict as turnovers could be vital, but I do trust Aaron Rodgers more than Joe Flacco when it comes to looking after the ball.

I also believe the game potentially means more to Green Bay than it does for Baltimore as the Ravens have played a couple of tough Conference games and are next facing the reeling Pittsburgh Steelers on the road.

Those Conference games are far more important to the long-term aim that Baltimore have for the season, although they won't be impressed that they are being dogged at home.

Clay Matthews is a big loss for the Green Bay Packers Defense which has struggled in the early part of the season, but I don't know if I trust Baltimore's Offense to take full advantage of that. Joe Flacco has struggled for consistency, while the Receivers have dropped a lot of passes and that is not going to cut it against a team like the Packers.

There are a couple of trends that suggest the Packers are the right side in this one and I will back them to cover the spread.


Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Divisional games are always going to be tough, hard fought battles an I doubt this game is any different.

Of course, the Kansas City Chiefs are heavily favoured to win the game after their start to the season, but I like the Oakland Raiders to find a way to cover.

I have been impressed with Terrell Pryor at Quarter Back- much like Tim Tebow, he hasn't always looked like a serviceable Quarter Back at the NFL level but I do like his intangibles. He is a better mover than Tebow and also a better passer, but he shares the ability to lead his team and give them the confidence to win games and that can't be under-estimated.

Pryor will have to avoid mistakes when throwing the ball against this Defense, but Oakland should be able to run the ball effectively, while Alex Smith won't lead too many blowouts.

There are a couple of heavy trends that also favour Oakland in this one and I like them with the points- I love the fact that the Chiefs are only 4-14 against the spread as a home favourite in recent seasons, going 0-8 in Divisional games as the favourite at home.

Oakland are 17-4 against the spread as the road underdog in Divisional games.



St Louis Rams @ Houston Texans Pick: There has been a lot of negative talk about Matt Schaub over the last couple of weeks and he couldn't have wished for a worse start than throwing a pick-six almost immediately against San Francisco last week on Sunday Night Football.

The good news for Schaub is he is not playing a Defense as good as the ones he has seen the last four weeks and he will be aided massively by the running game which should gash the Rams for much of the afternoon.

That will open up the plays in which Schaub is most comfortable, namely the bootleg and play-action, and St Louis haven't defended the pass well enough to think they will be able to slow down Schaub through the air either.

Houston's Defense should also be too tough for Sam Bradford and this Offense to really get a lot out of and as long as Schaub avoids the mistakes that have plagued him, the Texans should win this one and cover the spread.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: On the face of things, I think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could certainly pose a lot of problems for the Philadelphia Eagles who sandwich this game with two Divisional battles.

However, the rookie at Quarter Back is one issue Tampa Bay have to overcome and the pressure on their Head Coach has been increasing in each passing week. I am not sure that all the players respect Greg Schiano after the way he treated Josh Freeman and that can lead to a vicious cycle of poor results in the NFL.

The MRSA infection that reoccurred over the last week is another concern and I am not sure how focused the Buccaneers will be on this game, even off a bye, with a game at Atlanta also next up on deck. I expect Mike Glennon to make some plays from the Quarter Back position, but it will be tough for the rookie to avoid some mistakes and that should give Philadelphia the edge.

Nick Foles played well last week and even though this is the Eagles third straight road games ahead of battles with Dallas and the New York Giants, I do think they will find a way to make enough plays to win the game.


Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Adrian Peterson suffered tragic news during the last couple of days, but is focusing on getting back on the field for the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.

After hearing his son had passed away following an alleged assault, Peterson has still been practicing and I am expecting the whole Vikings team to rally around their best player and put in a strong performance in this one.

The Vikings haven't been good coming off byes in recent seasons, while the Defense hasn't played well this season to suggest they will be able to slow down Cam Newton and the Panthers, but I expect the team to rally together after the terrible events of the last three days. Matt Cassel is less likely to make the mistakes that Christian Ponder was guilty of earlier this season, but he will be under pressure unless Peterson and Toby Gerhart can find a way of running the ball with some effectiveness.

Carolina's Secondary have struggled this season and if the Vikings are running the ball well, Cassel should be able to use play-action to take advantage of that.

I don't like backing teams in tragic circumstances, but they do seem to rally together at moments like these and I expect Adrian Peterson's 'brothers' will ensure a win to make his world seem just a little better in that moment.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills Pick: I am going to open this segment by simply saying that Buffalo have been a strong home underdog in the early part of the season and I am a little unsure as to what Thad Lewis will bring to the team at the Quarter Back position in this one.

However, Lewis going up against one of the tougher Defenses in the NFL and one that just shut down Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. The Quarter Back won't be helped by the fact that Steve Johnson is a little gimpy at the moment, while the Bengals will feel confident they can limit the damage done by Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller on the ground.

With the pressure that Cincinnati can get up front, Lewis will have to be mobile to avoid sacks as the Offensive Line has struggled and the Bengals should limit what Buffalo can do.

The key to the game is whether Andy Dalton can make enough plays with his arm as that is an area he has been struggling of late. He can't rely on the Running Backs with Buffalo restricting opponents to 3.8 yards per carry. Buffalo's Secondary have been torched at times, but they get plenty of pressure up front and that has led to Interceptions despite the injuries they have in the Secondary and that could be another key to the game.

Dalton has been guilty of pushing at times and throwing picks and he will have to stay away from that if he is to guide the Bengals to 4-2. Buffalo do have a big Divisional game at Miami next on deck, but they should remain focused for the game although I am not sure if Thad Lewis can make enough plays to guide them to a win this week.



New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots Pick: This should be one of the better games of the day as I have had a couple of reservations about both sides, but will have a small interest on the New Orleans Saints securing a big victory on the road that will put them in total command of the NFC South if they haven't got it already.

Both Quarter Backs are amongst the best in the NFL, but the difference maker looks to be Jimmy Graham who is playing out of his mind at the moment. The Tight End is going to be very tough to cover and if Bill Belichick looks to take him away with double coverage, it isn't like the Saints haven't got other weapons to turn to.

New England can try and sustain drives by running the ball and keeping Drew Brees off the field, but the Patriots haven't really got a Running Back they can rely on even if that is an area where the Saints have particularly suffered.

Cincinnati also set up a blueprint in getting to Tom Brady last week and I think Rob Ryan will look to hassle the Quarter Back this week, while Rob Gronkowski remains absent.

I am a little concerned with the Saints on an outdoor field as they are just not as good as they are indoors, but I'll take the points in this one.


Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Both teams should have success moving the chains and this game could very much come down to which of the teams limits their mistakes or even which Receiver drops a pass on a third down he should have completed.

Dallas and Washington will have faith in their Offenses to score the points necessary to win this game, but I have a couple of concerns for the Cowboys which has me backing Washington to cover.

The Cowboys put in a big effort a week ago against Denver and may have left something on the field that day while Washington will be well rested and ready to go in this big Divisional game.

Dallas have also been a poor favourite to back at home and there are a couple of big trends I like that favour Washington in this one. The Cowboys might be 2-0 against the spread as a home favourite this season, but they are 3-17 in that spot over the last three seasons, while they are 5-17-1 against the spread as a home favourite against teams from the NFC East.

Washington are 14-3 against the spread as a road underdog at Divisional rivals and they have every chance of getting a backdoor cover in this one.

It could be a game that comes down to which team has the ball in their hands last and I can see either winning this by a Field Goal so I will take the points on the road team.

MY PICKS: New York Giants + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders + 8 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Houston Texans - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 2 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bengals - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Washington Redskins + 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 47-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 33-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 26-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 15-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 201325-16-1, + 11.48 Units
Season 2012- 4.78 Units

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