Midweek Football Picks 2013 (November 5-7)

The Champions League and Europa League Groups have reached a critical stage where some teams will book their place in the last 16/last 32, while others are already on the verge of elimination.

It makes it a tough balancing act for teams who are also looking after domestic matters and that will mean there will be changes to the starting line ups for the midweek games as managers rotate their squad.


Manchester City v CSKA Moscow Pick: I really like the way Manuel Pellegrini sets his team up at home and I would be surprised if he puts the leash on his Manchester City side after they scored seven against Norwich City on Saturday.

That is going to make it a tough game for CSKA Moscow who need to win this game to have any chance of moving through to the last 16 of the Champions League after their home defeat to City two weeks ago.

It will be tough for CSKA to actually contain all of the attacking pieces that Manchester City have and I think the Russian side could be demoralised if they fall behind early. With the way Manchester City have been scoring goals at home, it could turn out to be a long night for the CSKA side that takes the field.

Manchester City have played 7 home games in all competitions this season and they have scored at least 3 goals in 5 of those games. There is every chance they can do the same again here and I think there is definitely a strong reason to take the risk and ask the home side to cover 2 goals on the English handicap.

The odds look attractive for a side that has scored plenty and against a CSKA Moscow side that has had a few heavy defeats this season, including a 3-0 thumping at Bayern Munich.


Real Sociedad v Manchester United Pick: I have a feeling that David Moyes may employ conservative tactics in this game as Manchester United will be very happy with a point to keep them in control of a Group with two games left to play.

However, the manager would do well to give Real Sociedad the respect they deserve as a side that is definitely improving following a tough start to the new season. It just seems they weren't aware of how to deal with Europe and Spanish domestic games, but Sociedad have turned a corner of late and have begun scoring goals.

They definitely looked a threat going forward at Old Trafford two weeks ago, but it will also have been noticed by Moyes as to how vulnerable they are at the back when United got forward.

The feeling for Sociedad is they have 'nothing to lose' in this game and that could lead this to being an open game will goal-scoring chances. The openness will give Manchester United a chance to win this game, but they might have one eye on the big Premier League game against Arsenal this weekend instead.

I just fancy someone to win this one 2-1, so I will back the over 2.5 goals option at odds against here.


Borussia Dortmund v Arsenal Pick: This should be a fairly open game between two teams that like to play attacking football and get on the front foot. However, there is also a tension in the game with the Group being finely balanced and the loser of this match could find themselves in a very difficult position to get through to the last 16, especially if Napoli beat Marseille as expected in Naples.

That might make the managers a little cautious, but there is enough reward in earning the three points that I don't believe either manager will decide to play a defensive formation.

Borussia Dortmund don't do defensive at home where they have built up  a lot of confidence that comes with wins. They have been strong here this season, while they produced a number of big wins in the Champions League last season to show they are capable of mixing with the best teams in Europe.

There are some vulnerabilities at the back that Arsenal could expose on the counter-attack too so it should be a very entertaining game for the neutral to watch.

I have a strong feeling that both teams are capable of finding the net in this one, as has happened in all but one of their previous five matches, but I also believe Dortmund are the stronger team and can end Arsenal's unbeaten away run.

Of course you have to have caution considering Arsenal beat Bayern Munich away from home last season, but I think that was also down to the home team holding a 1-3 lead from the first leg and not finding the balance of going forward and defending in the second leg. Borussia Dortmund know they want the three points in this one and their judgement shouldn't be so clouded and I like the home team to win in a game where both teams find the net.


Ajax v Celtic Pick: It isn't the most appealing price to see Ajax at odds on to win this game, especially when you look at their recent form, but I do think the home side will be too good for Celtic.

Ajax haven't won a lot of their recent home games in the Champions League, but they have faced much stronger teams than Celtic in that time and I think they can become the latest team to see off the Scottish Champions at home.

I have to think that Celtic will look to play on the counter attack and defend in numbers, but that pressure can certainly lead to problems. If they do go one goal down, Celtic will have to open up in this game and that could help Ajax pull away for the win.

This should be a tight game for a while and a Celtic goal to take the lead would be a tough body blow to recover from for Ajax, but I think the home team are a little too good and they will earn 3 points to keep them in contention for a place in the last 16.


Chelsea v Schalke Pick: I have to say that Chelsea were largely disappointing in their loss at Newcastle United at the weekend, particularly in the second half of that game and it will be important for them to bounce back in this game.

The onus is mainly on Chelsea to earn a result in this one that will completely erase the 1-2 loss to Basel and that means getting forward and finding a way to pick up the three points. That would give them the important tie-breaker over Schalke as well as keeping them clear of Basel and it would also Jose Mourinho to rest players as we get closer and closer to a hectic Christmas period.

Mourinho has already warned his side that Schalke are a better team away from home and the results of the German side have backed up that suggestion from the manager.

However, I do wonder how much ambition Schalke will have knowing they have to face the two 'weaker' teams in the Group and that could give Chelsea the edge in the game with this meaning more to them. I will back Chelsea on the Asian Handicap to get the better of their opponents for the second time in two weeks.


Atletico Madrid v Austria Vienna Pick: Depending on how the earlier game in the Group goes, Atletico Madrid could not just secure a place in the last 16 on Wednesday evening, but they could guarantee their place at the top of the Group and thus an 'easier' game in the Second Round.

The side have been very impressive this season and they have been very tough to play at the Vicente Calderon and it would be a real surprise to me if Austria Vienna can get anything from this game after being beaten 0-3 at home a couple of weeks ago.

Despite picking up 1 point from a possible 9, Austria Vienna could still find themselves in contention for a place in the last 16 even if they fail to win in the Spanish capital. However, they have failed to score in any of their 3 Group games and have already been beaten twice at home so it is a big ask for this side, who have also been in poor form in their domestic League, to beat a potential dark horse for the Champions League title.

Atletico Madrid have scored 4 or more goals in 3 of their last 7 home games and with the likes of Diego Costa and David Villa up front, they should be able to score enough goals to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Napoli v Marseille Pick: It has been a poor start to the season for Marseille who are 5th in the French domestic League and already contending with a significant gap between themselves and the Champions League places on offer for the top three teams. They have also lost all 3 Group games and are effectively out of Europe as Napoli, Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund have wins over them and are all 6 points better off.

Now they travel to Naples with little more than pride to play for and I think it will be a big ask for Marseille to stay with Napoli in this one. Napoli have won 4 games in a row in all competitions including a 1-2 win in Marseille a couple of weeks ago, while they have also won 11 of their last 12 games in all competitions in front of their passionate home support.

Facing a Marseille team that can't have a lot of confidence is going to help Napoli who are desperate to reach 9 points after this game to give themselves a real chance of qualifying for the last 16. With games against Dortmund and Arsenal to come, Napoli can't afford to slip up here and I do think they will prove to be too strong and come through with a win by a couple of goals.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 2 Goals @ 2.60 Stan James (1 Unit)
Real Sociedad-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Both Teams to Score and Borussia Dortmund to Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Ajax @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.20 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Atletico Madrid - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Napoli - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

November Update: 3-4, + 1.50 Units (14 Units Staked, + 10.71% Yield)

October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 46-44-1, + 2.05 Units (144 Units Staked, + 1.42% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)