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Thursday 12 December 2013

NFL Week 15 Picks 2013 (December 12-16)

It was during these weeks last season that what looked like being a promising year for the picks, turned out into a poor one that was only recovered by a perfect run in the Play Offs. This time around, the picks have been much stronger and last week's small profit means the run has moved to five consecutive weeks with a winning end.

Week 14 has to be have been one of the wildest ones I have ever seen with a lot of strange turns at the end of games and it is one I am happy to escape with a winning record. This week doesn't look as intriguing on paper as last week did, but with only three weeks left of the regular season, there are of course a lot of Play Off implications that can be resolved.


Week 14 Thoughts
And I thought it was crazy in Miami: Earlier in the season after the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin issue broke, I would have been surprised to see any other team going through the strange events that had happened in Miami. I must have forgotten about Washington and all that that team gives the NFL in terms of craziness.

Last week, rumours came out that Mike Shanahan was upset with the relationship that Dan Snyder had with Robert Griffin III and that the Head Coach was looking to get out of the capital as soon as the season was over, although it was indicated that he would have gone at the end of last season if not for the injury suffered by the Quarter Back in the Play Off loss to Seattle.

Snyder has apparently placed RG3 in a position of power in the locker room, perhaps even under-mining what Shanahan has tried to do and it is no wonder the Redskins have been as unsuccessful under the owner as they have been. What happened to let an owner own and a Head Coach coach? Just when you think Snyder has taken the backward step for the team as he should have, up pop issues like this.

The owner has created a friction between the Quarter Back and the men he is supposed to lead, while Shanahan can't really enforce his rule when Snyder has acted the way he has. To give one player the extra attention has divided the locker room and no wonder the team has fallen apart in the manner it has with players like Pierre Garcon making their feelings known to the press.

Shanahan is likely out in the off-season, but who is going to take a job where someone like Snyder can't keep himself out of the team affairs? With their top draft picks gone from the RG3 trade, this is just a mess in Washington and one caused by the owner again.

RG3 has been benched for the rest of the season which is clearly a power-play from Shanahan, but most probably the right decision too if they feel they can do better with Kirk Cousins. It may also benefit the Redskins a little bit as the Quarter Back class in this year's Draft is not going to be as loaded as some initially thought.

If Cousins plays well, a Quarter Back desperate team may be wanting to trade him from Washington and perhaps help the Skins pick up a Draft pick they desperately need to fill a few spots on their roster.


Week 14 should whet your appetite for Super Bowl in New York: It seemed a lot of people were fascinated by the weather that hit some parts of North America last Sunday and if you liked that, you are sure to love the Super Bowl this year.

I have no doubt that it is going to be cold in New York with a high chance of snow in an evening kick off for the Super Bowl and I am not sure what that does for the spectacle for the fans who have paid as much as they have for tickets, or those who will be watching at home.

I thought it was fun last week, but there is no way I would want to see the Super Bowl played in the conditions we saw in Philadelphia where it was virtually impossible to kick the ball either for extra points or field goals.


Jeff Triplette botches another call: The decision to award Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis a Touchdown in the Cincinnati win over Indianapolis was by no means the only poor call made by officials last week (check the DPI call at the end of the New England win over Cleveland), but it was the second big mistake by Jeff Triplette and his crew in consecutive weeks.

The call was to award a Touchdown for Green-Ellis on fourth down despite him clearly being knocked to the ground in the backfield and falling short of breaking the end zone.


It was a terrible call and one that Triplette admitted he hadn't even looked at the fact that Green-Ellis was touched in the backfield by the Colts Defender. That has led to the NFL considering all reviews to be watched in one location, something that has aided the NHL in the reviews they have.

The idea seems smart, although it is to be voted on, but at least it will give the officials one less thing to be worried about, although bogus Pass Interference calls can't be changed.


Are New England dead in the water without Rob Gronkowski? That was the consensus view after the Tight End was lost for the season and now looks doubtful for the start of next season when tearing his ACL in the win over Cleveland on Sunday.

I don't think Tom Brady and the Patriots are going to suddenly stop scoring points, but their Defense has to be a bigger concern especially when it comes to the Play Offs and likely a second meeting with the Broncos but this time in Denver.

You just have to accept that Brady and Bill Belichick are going to find a way around the problem of not having Gronkowski, and they did manage to do without him earlier in the season. They still have Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen who can cause match up problems for Defenses, but the Patriots will only go as far as their Defense can take them and that is the bigger issue rather than the Offense.


Play Offs becomes a little clearer: The results from Week 14 have clarified a few issues in terms of the Play Offs going forward, for example I think New Orleans have almost certainly secured the Number 2 seed in the NFC behind Seattle.

Indianapolis are very much expected to host Kansas City on Wild Card weekend, while defeats for the likes of Pittsburgh and the New York Giants have almost certainly knocked these two recent Super Bowl Champions out of the Play Offs.

I also have some changes to my Play Off predictions, although the coming three weeks could throw a wrench into them.

AFC- 1) Denver, 2) New England, 3) Cincinnati, 4) Indianapolis, 5) Kansas City, 6) Miami

NFC- 1) Seattle, 2) New Orleans, 3) Philadelphia, 4) Detroit, 5) Carolina, 6) San Francisco


Top Ten
1) Denver Broncos (11-2): That Offense is going to be tough to stop, even in cold weather.

2) Seattle Seahawks (11-2): I wouldn't back too many teams, if any, to win a Play Off game in Seattle which makes them favourites to reach the Super Bowl in the NFC.

3) New Orleans Saints (10-3): Bounced back from a loss in Seattle by completely handling the Panthers.

4) New England Patriots (10-3): Even without Rob Gronkowski, Offense should put up points but Defense has to play better.

5) San Francisco 49ers (9-4): Maybe the only team with the confidence to win in Seattle.

6) Cincinnati Bengals (9-4): Could potentially challenge New England for the Number 2 seed in AFC.

7) Kansas City Chiefs (10-3): Most likely locked in as Number 5 seed in AFC.

8) Carolina Panthers (9-4): Loss at New Orleans will likely leave Carolina scrambling for a Wild Card spot in the NFC.

9) Philadelphia Eagles (8-5): Convincing me more and more as a genuine Play Off team, while Dallas' loss on Monday Night also improves those chances.

10) Arizona Cardinals (8-5): Hanging on to the Wild Card race, although schedule does not make for great reading.


Bottom Five
32) Houston Texans (2-11): Eleven straight losses, firing your Head Coach, inside track to Number 1 pick in the Draft.

31) Washington Redskins (3-10): This is just a complete mess in Washington.

30) Atlanta Falcons (3-10): Been a bad year for Atlanta, but at least showing signs of being competitive despite that.

29) Minnesota Vikings (3-9-1): I have absolutely no idea how they lost that game in Baltimore.

28) Oakland Raiders (4-9): Another bad year for Oakland.


Week 15 Picks
There were so many crazy endings to games in Week 14, things that I have never seen before to be absolutely honest. The Baltimore-Minnesota game had a crazy FIVE Touchdowns in the last 2 minutes and 5 seconds of the game as it swung one way and then the other.

It was vital for Baltimore to win that game in the race for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC, but it was one of a number of games that ended in such strange manners that the early games were considered the best in one timeslot that the NFL had ever seen.

I will be hoping for a slightly less erratic end to games this week, and also to keep the winning run going from the last five weeks. It has been a good season, but a strong end is required before the Play Offs begin in early January.


San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos PickEveryone knows what they are going to get with the Denver Broncos and that is an Offense that is going to be very difficult to stop. Even without Wes Welker, there are too many weapons for even the best Defenses to slow down completely, but it is even worse for a Defense like the one that San Diego have.

The Chargers haven't been able to slow down Offenses that are not even close to the talent level that Denver have and it would be a surprise if Denver don't surpass the 30 point mark again.

Peyton Manning is also playing with a chip on his shoulder after hearing the suggestions that he can't play in the cold weather, so I expect him to retaliate against those again in this game.

I wouldn't sleep on the San Diego Chargers either, as they are a team that is capable of scoring a lot of points with the methodical approach they have on Offense. However, they are not really a team that is built to recover from big deficits as they don't really have enough quick-strike Offense to score a lot of points quickly.

A lot of what Philip Rivers does is short, check down passes with the odd shot deep, but coming back from a big deficit would mean the Denver pass rush has their way with this Offensive Line.

It is a big number on the spread, but Denver should be able to score enough points against this Defense to see them cover.


Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants Pick: The Giants are out of the running for the Play Offs, but they have made it clear that they refuse to lie down and this may be one of the games that gets their blood pumping.

They are not a team to trust with Eli Manning going back to the turnovers that blighted his game at the start of the season, but they are facing a Seattle team that is travelling across the country to play an early game after losing a tough game against the San Francisco 49ers.

I do think Seattle are by far the better team, but this doesn't look a great spot for them and getting more than a Touchdown start in a game where both teams will pound the ball on the ground looks a lot in this game.


Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: This is a very important game for the Indianapolis Colts who are trying to build some confidence ahead of their Wild Card weekend Play Off game, but I would be surprised if Houston simply roll over for their Divisional rivals.

The problem for the Texans is trying to figure how they will respond to the firing of Gary Kubiak who has been the Head Coach since the franchise was created. The team have also lost 11 games in a row, twice to Jacksonville, and there may already be some thoughts to the off-season.

Indianapolis should be able to move the chains in this game, but the Defense has to step up if they are to win the game. The Colts have struggled to get off the field when it comes to third downs, while Case Keenum can string together some big passes to keep the Texans moving down the field.

Keenum has struggled to put together a full game though and that is where the Colts may be able to do enough to see them off this week. Andrew Luck will get a little more help from his running game to at least keep the pressure off his own shoulders and it may be tough for the Texans to recover mentally if they fall behind.


Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: I didn't think I would be backing Jacksonville too many times this season, but I like them with the points for the second week in a row as they host the Buffalo Bills with the Play Offs a dream for both.

The Jaguars have picked up some form in recent weeks so I don't quite understand them getting a field goal headstart in this one with the spread looking out of sync with what we have seen in recent games.

Maurice Jones-Drew may sit out, which is a concern, but Jacksonville are not afraid of using the full playbook and that makes them a dangerous team with the ball. The Buffalo Defense is playing well which would be another concern, but they have struggled against the run and I still expect the Jaguars to be able to run the ball even without their star Running Back.

I also believe the Defense is playing well enough to at least contain the dual threat of CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson from out of the backfield and that will give the Jaguars every chance of securing the win. EJ Manuel isn't as good on the road either, although this is far from a vocal and intimidating home crowd, but there is enough to think Jacksonville can make this competitive and getting the 3 point start looks hard to ignore.


New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Pick: I wasn't sure the Miami Dolphins would make the Play Offs before last week, but the win at Pittsburgh gives them a great chance to take the Number 6 seed in the AFC.

However, this is a big game for them against the banged up New England Patriots who can take over as the Number 1 seed in the AFC if they win out the rest of the way. That motivation is hard to ignore, as is the fact that Tom Brady would have been hearing all week how the Patriots are finished as a Super Bowl threat now they have lost Rob Gronkowski for the year.

The Dolphins have lost 7 in a row to the Patriots, but I do think the Miami Offense will have success running and throwing the ball in this game. Ryan Tannehill has looked comfortable at Quarter Back and is beginning to find Mike Wallace more often, while Daniel Thomas has been improving with the ball in his hands out of the backfield.

New England should also have some success with their running game in this one and they will need that to be established to keep the pass rush off of Tom Brady. You can't underestimate Brady to find a way to win this game as the underdog, especially after seeing Denver open the door for the Number 1 seed and home field advantage through the Play Offs.

It might also be a mental barrier for the Dolphins, who should have really won the first game between the teams, to win this one and it could be very close so I will take the points in this one.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Philadelphia won't have to worry about the weather conditions this week as they travel to Minnesota to play in the dome, although the snow only stopped the Offense for one half last weekend in the win over Detroit.

It is going to be incredibly tough for the Vikings to slow down the Offense indoors, especially with the injuries in the Secondary and with the run Defense seemingly wearing down. LeSean McCoy should find running lanes which will only open things up for Nick Foles and the Eagles should continue scoring plenty of points.

The question then becomes whether Matt Cassel can help the Vikings keep up despite being without Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart. The Eagles Defense has been improving as each week has passed and I imagine they will do enough to at least force Cassel to complete passes from third and long situations.

Philadelphia will get pressure on the Quarter Back up front and I do like the Eagles to win this one. Unfortunately we are at the time of the season when the layers will add points to those teams that are chasing Play Offs and this isn't a great number for the Eagles to cover.

However, they do score enough points to see them get ahead of the Vikings although my concern is the battling qualities that Minnesota have displayed in the last month of the season.


New Orleans Saints @ St Louis Rams Pick: The season may not have gone exactly the way Jeff Fisher would have hoped, but there are signs that the St Louis Rams are improving an they could only get better for next season. The Rams are likely to have a fairly high Draft pick from their own position this season, but Washington's collapse means they will also have potentially the Number 2 pick.

Off the back of a couple of defeats against Divisional rivals, it is tough to see how St Louis will muster enough Offense to keep up with the New Orleans Saints in this one. The Rams will look to keep Drew Brees on the sidelines with their running game, but the Saints have shown signs of being capable of shutting that down and forcing Kellen Clemens to try and keep up with his arm.

I expect the New Orleans pass rush to keep the pressure on Clemens, while I don't really see how the St Louis Defense can improve sufficiently to slow down the Saints. The Rams have given up huge yards through the air despite being good enough to restrict rushing attacks and that is going to be a real issue against this passing Offense that Drew Brees will muster up.

Playing indoors should aid New Orleans that much more, even if the spread is out of whack for the game. The Saints might have this game between the two with Carolina, but they will finish Number 2 in the NFC even if they lose to the Panthers but win their other two games.

I think they will be able to win this by a Touchdown, but the Rams can make it competitive for a while.


Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans Pick: These two teams have different aims for the remainder of the season thanks to results over the last month or so and it will be interesting to see how Tennessee get up for this game with the Play Offs essentially gone.

The Titans play two Divisional games to end the season and may already be looking to end the season on a high note in those games. On the other hand, Arizona have to win out to have any chance of claiming one of the Wild Card spots, which is still a distinct possibility.

Arizona do have to face Seattle and San Francisco so losing this game may effectively end their hopes of making the post-season, especially as the Seattle game is on the road where Russell Wilson never loses.

With the way the Cardinals Defense has been playing, Ryan Fitzpatrick could be forced into making a couple of mistakes that costs the Tennessee Titans the game in this one. As long as Carson Palmer steers clear of those turnovers and Arizona win that turnover battle, the Cardinals should be able to see themselves through for a vital victory.

MY PICKS: Denver Broncos - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New York Giants + 8 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 4 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars + 3 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
New England Patriots + 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 6.5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Week 14: 5-4, + 0.54 Units
Week 136-4-1, + 3.65 Units
Week 126-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 116-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 104-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 92-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 85-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 77-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 62-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 54-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 47-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 33-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 26-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 15-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 201368-51-2, + 23.50 Units
Season 2012- 4.78 Units

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