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Saturday 28 December 2013

Weekend Football Picks 2013 (December 28-29)

The games come thick and fast in the Premier League during the busy Christmas period and teams will have no more than 72 hours to prepare for this set of games after playing on Boxing Day. Some teams will have even less time as they are in the second game of a trio of games which began on Thursday, will play again this weekend and then once more on Wednesday on New Year's Day.

I would watch out for team news in these games as some managers will rest players in preparation for more 'winnable games' while tiredness is a big factor during this time of year. I wouldn't change it for a 'winter break' though as there really isn't anything better than the football we get to see during this time when other European Leagues have shut down.

It has been a strong month for the football picks and hopefully that will end with another positive weekend to put 2013 to bed in the best possible way.


West Ham United v West Brom Pick: It turned out to be a terrible Boxing Day for West Ham United fans as their team not only blew a 1-0 lead over Arsenal at Upton Park, but the three teams in the relegation zone all one to drop West Ham into the bottom three.

Some will be calling for Sam Allardyce to be removed as manager, but I believe the owners are very much behind the manager and I still believe he is the best man to get West Ham out of trouble. The January transfer window opening can't come soon enough for the manager, but this is also a game that he would have targeted to earn three points from.

I was surprised by West Brom's result at Tottenham Hotspur on Boxing Day and it will be interesting to see how much the players have in the tank considering this game will be played on Saturday lunchtime.

Neither team can really rely on a defence to win them this game and I do think we will see goals in this one. West Ham don't have a lot of goals in the side, but Carlton Cole has shown signs of resolving some of those issues, while the return of Kevin Nolan gives them a threat from midfield. I don't think a draw does much for either side so both should push for goals and I think a small interest on at least three goals being scored looks the call.


Manchester City v Crystal Palace Pick: With a game coming just 48 hours after Boxing Day, it would be foolish of managers not to make some changes and that should help Manchester City a little more with the size of squad at their disposal compared with Crystal Palace.

It's not like Manchester City need much help at home so far this season as they have generally put teams to the sword here and the added issue for Tony Pulis of keeping players fresh for their next game against Norwich City may come into play.

In all honesty, Crystal Palace are probably ahead of the curve from these two games in quick succession as anything more than 1 point would be seen as a success. With that in mind, I think Tony Pulis is going to feel a little more comfortable making changes to his first team and that may lead to another comfortable home win for Manchester City.

Even without Sergio Aguero, Manchester City have a lot of attacking talent at their disposal and they should be able to cover what initially looks a big Asian Handicap. I feel a little more comfortable knowing that 4 of 5 Premier League visits for Pulis with his Stoke City side ended in 3-0 losses at this Stadium, including the last 3 in a row and I feel there is too much momentum behind the home team in this one.


Norwich City v Manchester United Pick: The odds for a Manchester United win look very short again this weekend considering how much trouble they have had at Carrow Road in recent games and the fact that United are conceding as many goals as they have been.

The defending was poor at the beginning of the game at Hull City, and the home side also had other chances during the game to at least cause problems. These are areas that I expect Norwich City to expose in this game, although Nemanja Vidic may return to the heart of the defence to provide leadership and discipline.

It may not be enough to keep Norwich City from scoring in this game as they have proved capable of doing that at Carrow Road. Anyone who saw their performance against Chelsea earlier this season will know that Norwich are capable of pushing the best teams in the Premier League at home so this won't be a cakewalk for Manchester United.

However, there is a feeling that Manchester United have turned a corner in their belief and confidence and I think that could be enough to help them win this game. There are goals in the United side and I believe they will also be able to expose some of the issues Norwich City have at the back, especially without Michael Turner marshalling the home side.

It won't be easy, but I think Manchester United outscore Norwich City in this one and win a game in which both teams score.


Cardiff City v Sunderland Pick: Can things get any more crazy at Cardiff City? It seems the 'foreseeable future' meant just a couple of days after Christmas Day as Vincent Tan decided to sack Malky Mackay as manager.

How will the fans and players be feeling about all the uncertainty that has enveloped the club over the last few weeks? If the 0-3 home loss to Southampton is anything to read into, it will be a big ask for Cardiff City to pick themselves up for this game against a suddenly resilient Sunderland team.

Sunderland have been struggling for goals away from home and that remains a concern for them, but they earned a vital three points thanks to a 0-1 win at Everton a couple of days ago and that means Sunderland have also kept clean sheets in their last 3 away games in the Premier League.

If they can show more composure in front of goal, Sunderland can win this game against a demoralised squad that may only be picked up by the right appointment. Off the back of a bad home loss, it will be tough for Cardiff to get a positive result in this one and I sense Gus Poyet will be telling his troops that they won't have a better chance to win and get that much closer to escaping the bottom three.

A small interest on Sunderland in the 'Draw No Bet' market could be the best call for this game.


Everton v Southampton Pick: I will say Tottenham Hotspur might be able to take advantage of a Stoke City side that may be a little tired after playing on Boxing Day with nine men and that is my biggest concern for Everton in this game as they lost Tim Howard early against Sunderland.

Everton actually played well in that game and were perhaps a little unfortunate not to get anything out of that game and I also believe there is a confidence in this side that won't have been dented too much by the loss on Boxing Day.

Losing Gareth Barry and Tim Howard could be more of a problem to overcome against a Southampton side that have been erratic but tough to play against this season. Southampton haven't been as good away from home in recent weeks, but a couple of more positive performances at Newcastle United and Cardiff City will give them more confidence too.

Both teams have been surprisingly successful up to this point, but I think home advantage may prove to be the difference in this Sunday afternoon game. Everton have been more reliable to back this season at home, even at odds on, and I expect them to bounce back in this game, especially with the goals they had been scoring before the game against Sunderland.


Newcastle United v Arsenal Pick: The television cameras have certainly picked one of the best looking games of the weekend this Sunday afternoon as Newcastle United get set to host Arsenal in a clash that has a number of ramifications for the top places and the chase for the Champions League.

It is still too early for teams to secure their places in the top four, but Newcastle United can look to make a statement of their chances as they complete their games against the other sides in the top places. Newcastle have beaten Chelsea here and also forced a draw against Liverpool despite having ten men and will certainly not roll over for Arsenal.

Newcastle score goals and are backed by a loud crowd that seems to get the best out of the squad, while having the chance to play a Stoke City team with nine men on Thursday should mean they have kept some energy in reserve for this game.

All in all, Arsenal look far too short to win this game considering how well Newcastle United have played in recent weeks, while they are tough at St James' Park anyway. Arsenal have not found it easy against the better teams away from home, losing both away games against sides in the top ten in the Premier League.

Arsenal have also won just 3 of their last 8 visits to Newcastle United and backing the home side to avoid defeat at slightly under odds against looks the best call.


Tottenham Hotspur v Stoke City Pick: There was plenty of attacking intent from Tottenham Hotspur on Boxing Day, but they still looked a little shaky at the back in what ended a 1-1 draw against West Brom at White Hart Lane.

Tim Sherwood will want the team to get forward and score goals, but is still finding his feet as a manager and he needs a little more luck for his side if they are to win the three points in this one.

Tottenham Hotspur could potentially be aided by the fact that Stoke City had to play so long on Thursday afternoon with only nine men and there could be a few tired legs in the squad that might see them fall away in this one. Mark Hughes won't want Stoke to embarrass themselves, but they have conceded far too many goals away from home in recent weeks and Spurs may be able to take advantage with a little more luck and composure in front of goal.

I backed Spurs to win by a couple of goals on Boxing Day, but they couldn't get over the line in that one. I will go back to the well in this one and hope they have a little more luck when the chances come and can take advantage of a bit of tiredness that must have set in for Stoke after their exertions on Boxing Day.


Chelsea v Liverpool Pick: It would have been hard to be anything other than impressed with the way Liverpool played against Manchester City on Boxing Day, although how they recover in time for this game will be important for their chances of picking up some points.

After losing at City and Arsenal, it is important for Liverpool to find a way to prove they are capable of mixing with those sides challenging for the Premier League title. Recent years have seen Liverpool enjoying a lot of success at Stamford Bridge and Chelsea have certainly looked vulnerable enough to think the away side can get something from this game.

Chelsea will be expected to take the game to Liverpool and that may see them caught on the counter-attack and more composure from the away side in those positions will see them able to nick something here. I don't think Chelsea pose the same attacking threat as Manchester City either and don't believe they will score enough goals not to give Liverpool a chance in this one.

I am not sure Liverpool have enough to earn the three points in this game, but they are certainly capable of at least earning a point. This has all the makings of a close game where a draw wouldn't be the worst result for Liverpool and I think they deserve a small interest against a Chelsea side that is struggling with its identity when I have seen them play this season.

MY PICKS: West Ham United-West Brom Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester United Win @ 3.30 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Sunderland Draw No Bet @ 2.25 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Everton @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Newcastle United + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Liverpool + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

December Update16-12-1, + 14.34 Units (54 Units Staked, + 26.56% Yield)

November Final17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/1463-63-1, + 2.55 Units (200 Units Staked, + 1.28% Yield)
Season 2012/13+ 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

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