Australian Open Day 11 Picks 2014 (January 23rd)

After a pretty average start to the tournament, the shocks have just kept coming at the Australian Open the last few days with exits for the likes of Serena Williams, Novak Djokovic and, most recently, Victoria Azarenka.

I only saw bits and pieces of the Azarenka loss yesterday, but it seemed she was slightly off with her groundstrokes, while Agnieszka Radwanska made some incredible shots which just made it seem like it was going to be her day.

That also means we are going to see a new name on the trophy at Melbourne Park, while three of the four Semi Finalists in the women's draw have yet to win a Grand Slam title. The likes of Radwanska and Dominika Cibulkova may not get a better opportunity to win a Grand Slam, although I do think Eugenie Bouchard has the potential to take over at the top of the women's game when Serena Williams decides to hang up her racquet.


Of course the other major news from Day 10 was the setting up of the Semi Final between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer who will meet in a major for the first time since reaching the same stage here two years ago. Federer has been playing very well this week, but getting over the obstacle that Nadal presents him is as big a challenge as he can have on a tennis court and I look forward to Friday morning and seeing which of the two players get through to Sunday's Final.


One player who will have come out of his Quarter Final defeat with a lot of confidence to take through to the rest of the season is Grigor Dimitrov- the youngster has made the breakthrough that everyone has expected of him at the Grand Slam level and his performance in pushing Nadal on the way in the Quarter Final will set him up for a great season.

I think there is every chance he can finish in the top ten if he can take the confidence from that match when he was literally centimetres from taking the third set and moving up 2-1 in sets during the tie break. To see himself go head to head with the World Number 1 and come pretty close to perhaps winning that match will be something that Dimitrov can work on, although it is a big test to go back to the regular tournaments and compete with lesser players than Nadal and continue to impose his own game on proceedings.

There was so much to like about the Dimitrov game though- the big serve, consistency and power off both wings and the confidence to rally with one of the best and also being comfortable coming to the net and finishing off points. Dimitrov has so many positives to take from this tournament including the Ranking points to get him moving up that ladder.


The only disappointing aspect of all the surprise losses is that my outright picks have both failed to get beyond the Quarter Final, although the daily picks have been in a strong enough position to ensure this is still going to be a strong tournament.


Eugenie Bouchard + 4.5 games v Na Li: I have been very impressed with Na Li in the last two Rounds as she has dominated Ekaterina Makarova and Flavia Pennetta and I do believe she is going to go on and win this tournament, but Eugenie Bouchard should at least make this a more competitive match for her.

All the headlines might be of the three big surprise exits in the women's draw with Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka all being knocked out of the event, but Eugenie Bouchard breaking through to a Semi Final has been wonderful to see. The women's Tour needs new stars and this could be the start of Bouchard really motoring up the Rankings and I think she has the right mentality to at least push Li.

There is enough about Bouchard from the decent groundstrokes and first serve to think she will give Li more problems than her last two opponents have, although the spectre of getting to a Grand Slam Final is going to perhaps put too much pressure on the Canadian to win. That is where Li, who has won a major tournament and reached the Final here twice before, can use that added experience to just turn the screw and the opportune time which should lead her to the victory.

Can Bouchard push this to at least three sets? Possibly, but I wouldn't be surprised if Li comes through 76, 63 and I will take the games with Bouchard in this one.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: Both of these ladies may not ever get a better chance to crack their Grand Slam title chances and that could make this Semi Final a little more tense with that additional pressure in the back of the mind.

Out of the two players, I would have said Dominika Cibulkova was in the better form, but Agnieszka Radwanska had the most impressive win when beating Victoria Azarenka by frustrating the two time defending Champion here.

The biggest concern I have with this pick is the way Cibulkova has been using her aggression perfectly over the last couple of weeks- that aggression with the consistency she has shown has definitely helped her not only win matches, but dominate those matches.

The question is whether Cibulkova can continue to keep her cool against a player like Radwanska that can frustrate her? In their past meetings, it hasn't been the case for the most part, although Cibulkova did have her first win over Radwanska last season. However, the Pole has reached a Grand Slam Final in the past and I think that added experience at he business end of a Grand Slam may help her just absorb the power of Cibulkova and come through 64, 64.


Stanislas Wawrinka - 1.5 games v Tomas Berdych: When the draw was made, I, along with many others, did not see a situation where Novak Djokovic didn't at least get to this stage of the tournament, but Stanislas Wawrinka had other ideas with a five set win over the World Number 2.

That has set up this surprising Semi Final against Tomas Berdych and this is another situation where both men won't have too many better chances to get to a Grand Slam Final- Berdych has managed that before at Wimbledon, but has struggled against the players above him in the Rankings in the later stages of tournaments since then, while Wawrinka can underline his own improvements by reaching his first Slam Final.

Stanislas Wawrinka did reach the Semi Final at the last Grand Slam too so the added confidence coming from beating Djokovic gives him the edge in this match, especially as he has won the last 3 matches against Berdych too.

Both have a serve that can set up the easy points, while Wawrinka's improving forehand will give him a chance to rally with Berdych and set up the ridiculously good backhand. The confidence has improved over the last twelve months in the Wawrinka game and I think he will come through this match in four sets and reach his maiden Slam Final.

MY PICKS: Eugenie Bouchard + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 28-17, + 21.31 Units (82 Units Staked, + 25.99% Yield)