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Tuesday 14 January 2014

Australian Open Day 3 Picks 2014 (January 15th)

The Grand Slam tournament should be focusing all the attention on the tennis played on the courts as the pinnacle of the sport, but this week has proven to be all about the heat and the conditions in which players are being asked to play.

It has looked ridiculously hot at times, while a number of players have been forced to retire in matches, albeit not solely because of the weather. That won't stop the negative headlines on the event, especially as there is no sign that the heat is going to ease off in the coming days.

I don't know what the organisers should do, because the tournament has to be played on schedule and no players are going to want to be forced to play twice in a single day, even more so on the men's side of the draw where the best of five sets is already tough enough.

Then again, you don't want to see players collapsing on the court through heat exhaustion, but it is a difficult proposition for the Australian Open organisers to deal with. Maybe the best option would be to close down play for an hour in the middle of the day or use the roof to regulate temperature to an extent, but people aren't paying big money to see the courts empty at these big events.

This is a sensitive issue in which both players and organisers have a convincing argument, and is likely to be one to keep an eye on going forward for the rest of the event.


Yesterday proved to be a hit and miss day for the picks and yet another retirement voided one of the four picks I made. That means I have seen three retirements from eight picks made, a very strange start to the tournament to say the least. We now move onto the Second Round with the two favourites to win the men's and women's event in action on Wednesday and the tennis quality should improve with more competitive matches to be played.


Dmitry Tursunov - 1.5 games v Denis Istomin: Both of these men came through their First Round match in straight sets which is going to be critical in the first week of the tournament to keep energy in the bank in this two week event.

Both will fancy their chances of coming through the match, but I like Dmitry Tursunov's chances to get through and stamp the form that saw him beat Istomin last week in Sydney. That is the third straight win for Tursunov against Istomin, winning every set they have competed and I can see why that might have happened.

Both players will look to work behind a big first serve and heavy groundstrokes, but Denis Istomin can be erratic at times when it comes to his performances and that can lead to a lot of unforced errors. Tursunov has been a little more steady, which has prevented him from beating the very best players on the Tour, but that should still be good enough in this Second Round match.

There will be a couple of tight sets which may end up being split in this one, but I believe Tursunov proves too strong when it is all said and done and comes through in four sets and covers this spread.


Richard Gasquet - 5.5 games v Nikolay Davydenko: Richard Gasquet wasn't at his best in the First Round, but still recorded a comfortable victory over David Guez and I like his chances to back that up with another win over Nikolay Davydenko.

Davydenko had to come through a hard fought five set match in the First Round and is clearly a player in the twilight of his career. He can still make shots from the back of the court, but the serve will give his opponents chances and Gasquet is playing at a more effective level these days of the two.

The Frenchman has a 6-2 head to head record against Davydenko, which includes a comprehensive win at the French Open last year, but Gasquet has to serve a little better if he is to make this a match that he controls.

In the First Round, Gasquet gave up too many chances to Guez, but I think his focus will be better against a dangerous opponent like Davydenko and I like him to come through 63, 64, 64.


Stanislas Wawrinka - 6.5 games v Alejandro Falla: I was impressed with the limited action Stanislas Wawrinka had on Monday against Andrey Golubev and that form should prove to be too strong for Alejandro Falla in this Second Round match.

As easy as things looked for Falla in the First Round, he gave up a lot of chances on his own serve and Wawrinka is playing with a confidence that will see him exploit those chances if they come his way. He has the look of a player that is comfortable with his ability and what he can do on a tennis court and looks set for a decent run in 2014 following his career best 2013.

Wawrinka has to keep his focus if he is to cover this spread, but he has also shown he is capable of breaking serve a couple of times in a set and I would expect him to get through in straight sets.

The left hander will cause some problems initially, but I think Wawrinka wins 64, 63, 63.


Julia Goerges - 2.5 games v Lauren Davis: Julia Goerges had a terrible 2013 which saw her slip down the Rankings, but she has pushed Caroline Wozniacki early this season and is coming off a surprise win over Sara Errani in the First Round.

I expect the German to be too good for Lauren Davis in this Second Round match as the American has struggled at the Grand Slam level and Goerges is certainly a capable player on her day.

There is no doubt that she has to earn the trust back after the way she performed in 2013, but Goerges seems to have a little more confidence in her own game at the moment and that can make the world of difference on the women's Tour.

She has a big enough game to make the difference on the hard courts and I think Goerges can at least dominate the majority of the rallies to take advantage of Davis and move into the Third Round.


Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games v Annika Beck: One player that will certainly be looking to have a big impact at the top of the women's game in 2014 is Ana Ivanovic and she has already picked up her first title in Auckland.

The pressure of getting to the World Number 1 seemed to take away the momentum that Ivanovic had built up, and she has not really featured in the latter end of Grand Slam tournaments for some time. I still don't think she is good enough to take on the very best players on the Tour, but the confidence is improving and I like her to come through this Second Round match with little problem.

Her teenage opponent may be ranked at Number 54 in the World, but has yet to make a sustained impact at this level and it will be tough for Annika Beck to do that against an in-form Ivanovic.

The Serb has heavy groundstrokes which will be tough to contain for Beck and I do think Ivanovic will find a couple of breaks in at least one of the sets to come through 63, 63 in this one.


Sam Stosur - 2.5 games v Tsvetana Pironkova: The Australian Open has never been kind to Sam Stosur and she is another player that may struggle to get back up the Rankings with more erratic displays over the last twelve months than we have seen for a while.

The home crowd will certainly be behind her in this match against the winner of the tournament in Sydney, but I am wondering how Tsvetana Pironkova is feeling with all the tennis she has played in the last ten days.

Confidence has been a problem for Pironkova in the past, but she still has to answer the questions that will surround her and whether she is now going to show a year long consistency, or the performance in Sydney was just the exception to her usual level outside of the grass courts.

Stosur has dominated the head to head, but that is no surprise considering the way the Bulgarian has played off the grass courts and I think the win in Sydney has over-rated Pironkova's chances in this one. She did burn me twice last week with wins over top ten players, but I think she may struggle to keep her emotions in check in this evening session match and I like Stosur to come through 63, 46, 64.

MY PICKS: Dmitry Tursunov - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 6.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 3-2, + 1.92 Units (8 Units Staked, + 24% Yield)

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