Australian Open Day 4 Picks 2014 (January 16th)

The heat is getting all the attention in the first week of the Australian Open, but there was an interesting development that someone had been arrested for 'court siding' during the event.

Now the authorities have come out with the big statements of crushing an 'international betting syndicate', but it is also a very smart way to scare-monger with the suggestions that this 'is one step' from contacting players and asking them to deliberately throw games.

Put my in the 'can't see it' bracket as this is seems a stretch to me- the 'court sider' is simply trying to find a small edge by getting information across to someone who is sitting by a computer... Most people will know that the television pictures we receive from any sporting event is around 3 seconds slower than 'real time' and the court sider tries to get an edge on the market knowing full well what may have happened before the picture reveals it.

Yes, this does give them an edge, but the time delay that most sites use now means it is much harder to really get a big advantage in my humble opinion and I doubt this is a 'major international syndicate', but maybe a few guys looking to get an edge that used to be much more common place a few years ago.

I've actually seen someone doing it at Queens a couple of years ago, pressing a button on his device while points were being played, especially break points and set points, but that has been less common recently.


It was a mixed bag for the second day in a row for the picks which ended with a split of the six picks, but it could have been a little better if Richard Gasquet hadn't seemingly lost concentration as often as he did in his straight sets win over Nikolay Davydenko. The only real surprise was Julia Goerges losing to Lauren Davis, but it means the profit remains from the first three days, although I haven't kicked on as much as I would have liked.

Day 4 will see the conclusion of the Second Round matches and the heat is likely to be the story again if we continue seeing the amount of retirements we have. I really don't know what the organisers can do in such a situation barring forcing the tournament to go into a third week, they just seem to be stuck between a rock and a hard place at the moment.


Andreas Seppi - 1.5 sets v Donald Young: Andreas Seppi showed plenty of metal and determination in seeing off Lleyton Hewitt in the First Round despite the Australian fighting back from two sets down to force a decider.

That has to be the biggest concern for him just two days later when he faces Donald Young- usually one five set match is not a huge concern for a professional tennis player with improved conditioning, but playing five sets through the terrible heat will be a real test for anyone.

If Seppi has recovered mentally and physically, I think he is a little too solid for someone like Young to deal with. There is no point me rehashing the failure to reach the potential he had when he was growing up, but Young generally doesn't play at the main ATP level and Seppi is certainly a decent enough player to see him off.

Seppi has won both previous matches against Young without dropping a set- I am not sure it will be as straight-forward as that with Seppi's serve being a particularly vulnerable shot, but I like the Italian to win this one in three or four sets.


Fernando Verdasco - 6.5 games v Teymuraz Gabashvili: Fernando Verdasco may actually be enjoying more success on the Doubles Tour these days, but he remains a tough Singles player that loves the longer format of the Grand Slam tournaments.

I think his performance in reaching the Wimbledon Quarter Final last year is his last hurrah at the Slam level as a genuine threat to reach the latter stages, but he is still likely going to be too good for an opponent like Teymuraz Gabashvili.

My concern with backing someone like Verdasco is the mental concentration to see off Gabashvili without dropping a set, but he has a decent serve and will likely have chances to recover mistakes against the Russian.

Verdasco will need to remain cool in the heat, but he has decent conditioning and should be able to break serve a couple of times in a single set to see off Gabashvili with a 62, 64, 64 win.


Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 sets v Yen-Hsun Lu: One player who will need to really make a positive impact at the Grand Slam level is Grigor Dimitrov as he looks to continue growing as a player that could be at the top of the men's game in the years that follows.

Dimitrov has a lovely game to watch, there can be little doubt about that, but he had some extremely disappointing losses last year in the Slams, failing to get past the Second Round in all but one of them. And he certainly can't take Yen-Hsun Lu lightly after the latter reached the Final in Auckland last week and exerted little energy in dispatching Jimmy Wang in the First Round.

I have to respect Lu for being a battle-hardened veteran that can make life very difficult for opponents. He has a decent serve and decent groundstrokes and a steadyness about him that can't be dismissed. Lu is rarely ruffled to the point of collapse and I expect him to make life awkward for Dimitrov in this contest.

In saying that, Lu does have a lot of tennis in his legs over the last two weeks and that can quickly catch up with players. Dimitrov should also be able to pressure him with a decent serve and return game and I do feel the Bulgarian is going to make a step up this year. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he drops a set in this one though, so I like Dimitrov to come through in three or four sets.


Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Blaz Kavcic: He is playing with a new racquet and has his childhood idol in his coaching corner, while Roger Federer is going to be a father again later on this year so retirement is certainly not on the agenda at this current time.

I am not sure we will really see the best of Federer and Stefan Edberg until later on in the year when they have more time together, although Federer has admitted that a back injury affected his 2013 more than he let on at the time.

Whether we really see Federer challenging for more Grand Slam titles is yet to be seen, especially if he has too many draws like the one he is facing in Melbourne Park, but he is taking things one match at a time and I expect him to be far too strong for Blaz Kavcic.

Kavcic had a decent tournament in Sydney ahead of this one, but I don't believe he has the right mentality to beat someone like Federer and even making this match competitive would be a surprise. The Slovenian doesn't have a big serve so Federer will have a chance to dominate those rallies and get through this match in double quick time which could be vital to his chances of winning the tournament.

If Federer takes the chances that he let slip in the First Round, I can see him coming through 61, 63, 63.


Maria Sharapova - 6.5 games v Karin Knapp: Maria Sharapova made a fast start to her First Round win over Bethanie Mattek-Sands, but lost her serve at a couple of times which prevented her winning that match much easier than she did.

I think the win would have eased her mind coming into the first Slam of the season, especially with the return from injury, and I expect she is going to hit the ball a little too hard and have a little too much aggression for Karin Knapp to deal with.

Sharapova will know a little about Knapp after she had to see her off in straight sets at the French Open in 2008, although the first set needed a tie-break to separate them before a Sharapova bagel was handed out.

Knapp also had a decent run in the last two Grand Slam tournaments, but Sharapova is a different level of opponent and I think the Russian's power will prove too much for Knapp to deal with. Sharapova has to serve better in this match than in the First Round to cover this spread, but I think she will enjoy plenty of success against the Knapp serve and come through 62, 63.


Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 games v Stefanie Voegele: These two players have enjoyed a couple of tough scraps against one another in the past, but both times have seen Dominika Cibulkova come through with the win and I expect this match to follow suit on Thursday.

Both came through tough First Round matches, but I think there is a little more upside to the Cibulkova game that can make the difference in the match with Stefanie Voegele.

The major problem for Cibulkova will always be trying to get more out of her serve, especially against the better players, but she is a great shot-maker when on form and that certainly helps. She is a solid competitor too and can pressure Voegele in this one, although it won't be an easy match for Cibulkova.

In saying that, I still think she has a little too much in her game and comes through 75, 64.

MY PICKS: Andreas Seppi - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bodog (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 6-5, + 1.02 Units (20 Units Staked, + 5.1% Yield)