Australian Open Day 5 Picks 2014 (January 17th)

I am actually attending the NBA game to be played in London this evening thanks to a friend who got tickets through his place of work, so this thread is going to be shorter than normal.

The Third Round matches will begin on Friday as the Australian Open tournament progresses, albeit without controversy as the first 'heat rule' was implemented of the week. There is the suggestion that the fear of not being able to get through all the matches was what led to the early days ignoring the rule they have in place, which is discretionary, but that the organisers may be more open with fewer matches scheduled per day going forward.


It has remained a mixed bag for the picks thanks to some poor collapses from players in winning positions, but I remain in the positive for the week, although at a much smaller clip than I would like.

Hopefully the next ten days can prove to be a little more productive, while the four outright picks I made at the beginning of the week are all still alive.


Kevin Anderson - 1.5 sets v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: The last time these players met came at a Grand Slam when Edouard Roger-Vasselin recovered from two sets down to beat Kevin Anderson at the French Open in 2010.

Enough time has passed since then and Kevin Anderson is definitely an improved player, while the clay court was always likely to favour Roger-Vasselin more than the big South African.

The hard courts in Australia should swing the momentum towards Anderson and he would have been very happy to get through his last match in straight sets after needing five sets to see off his First Round opponent. That should inspire some confidence in his game, while Anderson also seems to have recovered fully from the virus that affected him at the turn of the year.

This is the best effort Roger-Vasselin has had at Grand Slam level since 2007 and I think the draw has been fairly kind to him despite the mini-surprise in beating Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the Second Round. Roger-Vasselin has also not been beyond the Second Round in either hard court Grand Slam tournament so this is already a successful campaign for him, but I think Anderson has a big enough game to put him away.

I expect tight sets, but I think Anderson will show enough to come through in three or four sets.


Sam Querrey - 1.5 sets v Fabio Fognini: I have to say that Fabio Fognini is one of the more awkward players to really get a feel for, but I believe the hard courts have to favour Sam Querrey and his big serve and forehand more than the Italian.

Querrey impressively dispatched Ernests Gulbis in the Second Round without dropping a set, but the American can be erratic and that does put me off a little in this match, especially if Fognini begins to get a read on the serve.

However, Fognini's own serve is very vulnerable and is one of those where he could be giving Querrey plenty of opportunities to break serve himself and I think that could prove to be the difference in the match.

It has been some time since Querrey reached the Fourth Round of a Grand Slam, but this is as good a chance as he would have had and I think he gets through in three or four sets.


Richard Gasquet - 1.5 sets v Tommy Robredo: If there is one veteran that you wouldn't worry about playing five set matches, even in this heat, Tommy Robredo would be high on the list. He came through three straight five set matches at the French Open last year, the first time a player had done that so the fact he has been pushed early in the tournament here isn't a huge concern.

The match up with Richard Gasquet is probably more of an issue with the Frenchman showing resiliency that some wondered if he ever had in coming through the first two Round without dropping a set.

He was down a double break in the first set against Nikolay Davydenko, but Gasquet highlighted the new found belief in his own game and I think that mentality will give him the edge against Robredo in this one.

Robredo isn't solely a clay specialist and showed at the US Open he can adapt to the hard courts, but his serve is still a more vulnerable weapon than the one that Gasquet has at his own disposal and I expect that to make the difference. It may take four sets when it is all said and done, but I will back Gasquet to win in either three or four sets.


Lucie Safarova + 5.5 games v Na Li: With the way that Na Li dispatched two promising teenagers, it is perhaps a surprise that I want to take the games in this one, but Lucie Safarova has a decent serve and can certainly make this a competitive Third Round match.

The problem for Safarova is trying to find the belief in winning this match considering she has lost six straight times to Li and only won two sets in that run of defeats. However, the lefty serve will give Li something new to think about and there is enough power in the Safarova game to pose problems and I think she will also be able to make inroads against the Li serve.

It can be hard when you don't have belief in someone to win a match to back them to make it competitive, but there are enough positives in the Safarova game to think this spread is perhaps one or two games too high.

The Czech player has to serve well else this could be one-way traffic, but she has shown she is capable of forcing at least one tie-break which could make this number a touch high for Li to cover.

MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson - 1.5 Sets @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 1.5 Sets @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova + 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 9-8, + 0.86 Units (32 Units Staked, + 2.69% Yield)