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Thursday 30 January 2014

Davis Cup Tennis Picks 2014 (January 31st)

On a personal level, I had a pretty terrible first two weeks of the season, but the Australian Open proved to be a positive tournament despite two surprise winners in the shape of Na Li and Stanislas Wawrinka. The first of those was a threat that most would have suggested is in the tier below the Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka's in the tournament, but the Wawrinka success was the biggest surprise we have seen in a men's Grand Slam in over a decade.

The fact that Wawrinka beat the top two players in the World on the way to the title and has subsequently improved his own World Ranking to Number 3 means he deserves all the success he earned at Melbourne Park and the new Swiss Number 1 may also be a threat in tournaments through the rest of the year.

He proved his worth by pushing Novak Djokovic to five sets in two Slams last season, while he also has wins over Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray in the last twelve months which should have the belief flowing in the Wawrinka game.


Of course, Wawrinka was aided by the back injury suffered by Nadal in the warm up but I don't want to take anything away from the player who deserves his success after learning to control his emotions in the last eighteen months. He looks effective off both wings now and his serve seems to be getting better and there won't be too many players happy to see Wawrinka in their side of the draw as we move through the rest of the Tour.


The surprise loss for Serena Williams in the Fourth Round also highlighted again that the American should not be short odds to win these Grand Slam tournaments despite being the best player on the WTA Tour. Getting through seven matches without a dip in form is almost impossible, but Serena has shown susceptibility to the shock result and not being able to find the form or belief to come through when she is not at her best.

I appreciate winning two out of four Grand Slam events, as Williams did last season, is an impressive feat and I do think she is rightly the favourite to win, but odds on quotes should not be justified as she has lost to the likes of Virginie Razzano, Sloane Stephens, Sabine Lisicki and Ana Ivanovic in Grand Slam tournaments over the last couple of years.

And even winning two out of four is seemingly not enough for Serena to be seen as a successful season else you wouldn't have read so many stories before the Australian Open began about being able to win all the Slams in the calendar year. In fact her coach and boyfriend, Patrick Mouratoglou, had said 'why not' to that suggestion as he said Williams was the best player on the Tour by some distance.

I think it also says a lot that a player that only lost four times through the course of the season in 2013 suffered two of them while playing at the Grand Slams and I wonder if those tournaments put too much pressure on her.

It is definitely something to keep in mind as we reach the French Open and Wimbledon during the middle of the season.


The WTA Tour has moved on to Paris and Pattaya City this week, but the ATP Tour has been preparing for the Davis Cup ties to be played this weekend. The Czech Republic are the two time defending Champions after Radek Stepanek became the first player to ever win two live fifth rubbers in the Final in back to back years.

This time around, the Czech Republic are the third favourites to win the tournament mainly because of the draw which sees them likely having to beat the French team that looks full of talent in the Semi Finals.

France can call on Richard Gasquet, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils, Julien Benneteau, Gilles Simon and Benoit Paire to name a few and there is a real belief that they can win their first Davis Cup title since 2001. They face Australia in the First Round, a team that doesn't have the same depth as they did a few years ago, while neither a weakened Spain nor Germany would intimidate the French in the Quarter Finals.

The French were beaten the last time they faced the Czech Republic in 2009 and that does look a close tie to call if Stepanek keeps saving his best performances for the competition to back up what Tomas Berdych brings to the court.


The other side of the draw doesn't present the same problem, especially if Roger Federer can make himself available to join Stanislas Wawrinka for the Swiss Davis Cup team- Federer has won almost everything there is to win on a tennis court, except the Davis Cup, and it could be his best chance to right that now Wawrinka is playing at an extremely high level too.

You have to remember these two were the Gold Medal winners at the Beijing Olympics in the Doubles tournament and they have the benefit of playing Serbia without their top three players in the First Round followed by a clash with either Belgium or Kazakhstan.

Argentina are not expected to have Juan Martin Del Potro this season, the United States are not the team of a few years ago when it comes to players that can play the Singles rubbers even if they do have the best Doubles team in the world, while Great Britain can only rely on Andy Murray as a genuine threat to win his rubbers over four Rounds.

My concern would be that Roger Federer has admitted that he hasn't planned for the full season of Davis Cup, but you would think he is going to be interested with the way the draw has panned out. Switzerland have not won the Davis Cup before which will give Federer and Wawrinka more motivation to go as far as they can and I can see why this team is the favourite to win the competition.


The Final would not be an easy match against either France or the Czech Republic, especially as it will come at the end of a gruelling season when both Federer and Wawrinka would be expecting to play at the World Tour Finals in London. However, Switzerland have the most straight-forward path to the Final as long as their top two players make themselves available through the year and I will back them to win the Davis Cup.


Most of the markets for the individual matches have yet to be placed by the layers so I will add to this tomorrow morning if there is anything that appeals.

MY PICKS: Switzerland to Win the Davis Cup @ 3.50 Paddy Power (3 Units)

Australian Open Daily Picks29-20, + 18.21 Units (89 Units Staked, + 20.46% Yield)
Australian Open Outright Picks1-3, - 6.25 Units (9 Units Staked, - 69.44% Yield)

Season 2014- 2.67 Units (155 Units Staked, - 1.72% Yield)

Season 2013+ 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012+ 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011+ 82.02 Units

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